Extreme Event

Frequency and Probability

Upper Event Rate, λ (per year)

Probability of Major Loss, p

Reactor meltdown

0.0003

0.02 per reactor

Oil well blow-out

0.02

0.0014 per offshore rig

Loss of aircraft

0.043

0.02 per aircraft

Loss of grid power

0.03

0.02 per customer

Financial crisis

0.06

0.02 per $T of GWP