Cometh the hour of impending Labour victory and likely drubbing of the Tories in the election, cometh Jeremy Corbyn to tell us that this is not the right sort of win at all.
The leftwing warhorse is standing as an independent in the Islington North seat he has held since 1983, having been spurned by Keir Starmer‘s Labour leadership over his refusal to accept the results of an anti-Semitism inquiry which cast a shadow over his period at the helm of the party.
It feels, to adapt the great Billy Bragg pop-a-ganda anthem, like “Waiting for the Great Leap Backwards”. No sooner has the Opposition sorted out its electability and leadership credential enough to look like heirs to power after 14 years of Tory rule, than along comes the perpetual Labour awks-squad, reminding us of an unresolved internal contradiction – namely that many party members and sympathisers lean well to the left of the leadership.
The Palestinian cause in the Gaza conflict has modernised Corbyn’s appeal: Labour’s frontbench has flopped over its early unconditional support for Israel. This issue lies at the softer end of Corbyn’s anti-Israel, anti-US, anti-Nato ideology and resonates most readily with younger voters, who conveniently set aside Corbyn’s implicit excuse-making for Moscow’s onslaught on Ukraine and identify with his support for the embattled people of Gaza.
In domestic politics, the rump Corbyn army and its diehard tax-high, spend-high and so-what approach to borrowing also chimes with voters on the left, who find the Starmer–Reeves economic recipe over-cautious.
The result will be a Rorschach test of a lot of Labour tensions which have been silenced in the Starmer era, and a riveting micro contest bringing media attention to the not-so-mean streets of North Islington. It has echoes of the Blair-Brown power struggle: the former was a resident. Not much excitement in betting which side he would have been on.
The edginess about the return of Corbyn to the fray has been reflected in the party’s decision to take maximum control of the selection process, with the local constituency party effectively edged out of the process and only two candidates allowed to compete for the official Labour selection.
That process, I am told by an official, will be wrapped up in short order to “avoid any more drama than strictly necessary”.
So Praful Nargund, an Islington councillor and founder of a chain of IVF clinics he ran with his mother, is the leading candidate – with the advantage of a role advising Labour on its “skills agenda”, which basically grants him pre-approval for a fast rise.
Sem Moema of the London assembly is the back-up in case anything should emerge to Nargrund’s detriment.
One quirk of fate here is that Praful is the nearest thing Labour has to a Rishi Sunak figure, or at least Sunak as he was when he was a rising star: the Oxbridge-educated, entrepreneurial son of an immigrant Indian family, who has also worked hard at local politics.
The private IVF chain will undoubtedly draw the fire of the left, but as one Blair aide who lives in the area puts it: “The Corbyn antipathy to private health is really limited to a dwindling activist class. Most Labour voters round here work in the media, tech and financial services. They’re totally comfortable with the private sector providing IVF because they inhabit the real world.”
Corbyn’s campaign by contrast will focus on a push for more internal party democracy and highlight the leadership’s lack of ideological diversity, an argument that played well for Ken Livingstone when he challenged the Blairite hegemony and became mayor of London.
Corbyn’s team hope that of the 200,000 members who have left Labour since he resigned as leader four years ago, a chunk will be drawn to campaign in Islington. Supporters on the left will have to weigh up campaigning for a high-profile independent candidate, knowing they will be seen as complicit in a distraction from a critical election campaign and potentially debarred from running for Labour in what may well be a long stint in power.
This clash is a reminder of the shape-shifting ruthlessness which has positioned Starmer for power while avoiding public clashes with Corbyn, in whose Shadow Cabinet he served. He farmed out a public statement on why his old boss is not permitted to stand for Labour to the shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves this week, which raised some eyebrows even on his own front bench.
Diane Abbott, meanwhile, is waiting for a decision on whether the Labour whip will be restored to her in neighbouring Hackney North and Stoke Newington. A foot-dragging investigation into alleged anti-Semitic comments is finally due to conclude this week, and Abbott had a point when she tweeted that despite Starmer’s protestations to the Today programme on Friday, matters of who is in or out of the Labour family has “EVERYTHING to do with Starmer”.
The fast and furious national campaign means that the less transparent dealings of the leadership with constituencies will likely be forgiven in this rush to polling day.
It will, however, set up a core of disgruntlement on the “soft left” of the party, who feel that the central command has ignored them in favour of installing candidates approved by Starmer and a close coterie.
A last stand for Corbyn will have a diehard romance to it at a time when many MPs look frankly indistinguishable. Much of the “ground war” however will also come down to the targetting data held by the Labour Party, and how far turnout in the general election reflects the changing makeup of a borough which has come a long way since the days of the old “left-wing Islington” jibes.
A large number of the young voters Corbyn appeals to can no longer afford to live there. It brings this battle back to the conflict of the bourgeoisie in Georgian terraces and sleek gated communities, and the working (and non-working) classes in social housing.
It’s a Marxist class battle Corbyn might welcome. Or not, depending on how the great leap works out.
Anne McElvoy is executive editor of POLITICO and host of the Power Play podcast
Election 2024
The general election campaign has finished and polling day has seen the Labour Party romp to an impressive win over Rishi Sunak‘s Tories.
Sir Keir Starmer and other party leaders have battled to win votes over six weeks, and i‘s election live blog covered every result as it happened. Tory big beasts from Penny Mordaunt to Grant Shapps saw big losses, while Jeremy Corbyn secured the win in Islington North.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK also outdid expectations with four MPs elected.
But what happens next as Labour win? Follow the i‘s coverage of Starmer’s next moves as the new Prime Minister.
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