It’s no secret that the immigration issue is a massive driver of voting patterns and electoral outcomes in our country. No matter where you stand on the issue, you probably feel strongly about it. Nobody had a better fundamental understanding of this in 2016 than then-candidate Donald Trump, who made it his signature issue.
The president remains committed to getting illegal immigration under control. He knows the American people, particularly Republican voters, demand that Washington finally get it right after decades of futility. But a new poll conducted by Heritage Action suggests that Trump could be more effective on the issue — and reach a broader electoral audience — simply by tweaking his immigration messaging.
Our polling finds that immigration continues to be the issue that is uppermost in the minds of Republican voters. The nationwide survey of 1,000 registered Republicans asked respondents to name the issue they believe is most important to the country. Overwhelmingly, they identified “immigration” as the top issue — tallying 30 percent of respondents’ answers. The next highest issue was mentioned by only 8 percent of them.
Why are so many Republicans concerned with immigration? Because, for most, it’s not a theoretical problem; it’s personal. More than four of every five respondents (83 percent) agreed with the statement: “Illegal immigration affects my life.”
The survey asked respondents to place themselves in one of three categories: Traditional Republican, Trump Movement or Conservative Movement. In each category, respondents perceived immigration as impacting their lives.
“Traditional Republicans” tend to live on the East Coast and in the northeast region, far removed from the southern border. Yet even among this group, those who said immigration affected their lives outnumbered those who didn’t by a landslide — 27 percentage points.
Now we come to the question where the Trump administration should take note. Respondents were asked: “What do you think is the biggest challenge illegal immigrants pose to America?” Here is the tally: Overuse of social services, 51 percent. Undermine culture, 9 percent. Violent crimes, 5.9 percent. Other, 1.5 percent. All of the above, 24.5 percent.
No doubt many, if not most, of the respondents believe illegal immigration poses some threat, in terms of violent crime or undermining traditional American culture. Look at the success that Angel Families has had in highlighting the victims of violent crime perpetrated by illegal immigrants.
But clearly these are not the main motivating factors when it comes to Republican concerns with our immigration system. A shift from the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to focus on the strain illegal entry places on America’s already overstretched social services would not only more closely align them with the president’s base, it would also help market their immigration policies to the broader public who depend upon social services.
The survey also revealed that Republicans, by an overwhelming margin, want an immigration system that prioritizes a skills-based approach (72 percent) over an approach that allows relatives to enter the country (13 percent).
This reveals a link between Republican voters viewing “overuse of social services” as the greatest challenge and Republican voters desiring a skills-based legal immigration system. Republican voters want immigration to be a “value added” for the country.
The president’s messaging and actions on immigration are clearly key contributors to his 93 percent approval rating among Republican voters. However, the administration is leaving critical points on the table.
By focusing immigration messaging on the costs of illegal immigration and the benefits of admitting skilled workers, Trump can broaden support for his immigration policies to include more moderate Republican and independent voters. Even some Democrats might worry that social service funds they depend on are being diluted.
A pivot in messaging would also have fewer negative effects in terms of activating progressives who, wrongly, from my perspective, perceive the strong emphasis on crime and culture as race baiting.
President Trump is correct to tackle this very important issue, but by highlighting the fiscal impact of illegal immigration, he can resonate with an even larger audience.
Tim Chapman is the executive director of Heritage Action.