Entering the season, if you were to have guessed which pitchers would be among the league leaders in almost every major pitching category from Day 1, chances are the names Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Corey Kluber would be on that list.
That list certainly wouldn’t have Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo being the league leader in ERA (1.23) — just ahead of Marcus Stroman, Roto Rage favorite Tyler Glasnow, Matt Shoemaker, Joe Musgrove or Zach Davies. That list probably also wouldn’t have Seattle’s Marco Gonzales being the league leader in wins (five) or San Diego’s Chris Paddack owning the league’s lowest opponent average (.112).
The big names may not be on that list, but they will be. The trick is finding which of these hot starters can hang with the big boys, and there is one name, a Roto Rage sleeper in whom you should start believing.
Marlins lefty Caleb Smith is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA, 0.828 WHIP and is striking out 11.5 per nine innings (seventh-highest in the league). He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his five starts and has limited opponents to a .167 average (.145 over his past three starts).
Before having surgery to correct a Grade 3 lat strain last season, he was 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA, 10.2 strikeouts per nine and a .220 opponent average. There were moments that showed what he was capable of — like a seven start stretch from April 22-May 28 when he went 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA, 47 strikeouts and a .164 opponent average.
This year, he has struck out 33.9 percent of the batters he has faced, and he has walked just 6.4 percent (almost 4 percent lower than 2018). He also no longer is relying solely on his fastball, which hovers between 92-94 mph, as he uses it just 48.4 percent of the time. His changeup usage has gone up from 13.7 percent to 23.2 percent. This has helped his swinging-strike percentage rise and his contact numbers to fall. His 2.2 walks per nine is a career low and has him ranked in the top 25, and his strand rate (85.9 percent) is in the top 15.
After being the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week, Smith remains available in almost 45 percent of leagues after seeing his ownership rise 33.8 percent. Yes, he is a Marlin, but he is proving he can hang with the big boys.