Our MLB betting expert offers the Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers predictions, and best betting picks for the Tuesday matchup at 10:10 p.m. EST on SportsNet LA and Bally Sports North.
The best team in baseball at 75-33, the Dodgers are on an eight-game winning streak to match a season-high and have gone 30-5 since June 29. Mookie Betts is second in baseball with 79 runs, while Freddie Freeman (136) and Trea Turner (134) are 1-2 in hits.
Twins vs. Dodgers MLB picks
● Dodgers to cover -1.5 runs, -105 (BetMGM)
● Game under 8.5 runs, -110 (BetMGM)
● Julio Urias under 5.5 strikeouts, -115 (BetMGM)
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Twins vs. Dodgers prediction: The Analysis
In first place in the AL Central, the Twins have a razor-thin lead on the second-place Guardians and third-place White Sox. Minnesota draws left-hander Julio Urias and the Dodgers in LA on Tuesday.
Nowhere to hide
Loaded with talent, the Dodgers are as challenging to face as they have been all season with an offense that is on a mission. Los Angeles outscored the Padres 20-4 in a three-game weekend sweep and have outscored opponents 52-17 during their win streak.
As if that was not enough for Twins right-hander Joe Ryan to deal with, the Dodgers’ starting staff has been elite as well, even without Walker Buehler, who has been out since June 10, and Clayton Kershaw, who went on the IL last week.
Even the Dodgers’ defense has been as good as anybody in the game, with the only weakness at closer with Craig Kimbrel. The issue for opponents has been staying close enough in the late innings to take advantage of Kimbrel’s struggles.
Our pick: Dodgers to cover -1.5 runs, -105 (BetMGM)
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No appetite for destruction
While the Dodgers trot out one of baseball’s best offenses, they tend to step on the gas only when needed. To wit: Of the Dodgers’ 75 victories this season, 32 have been comeback wins, the most in baseball. Their bats are a chore for opposing bullpens.
The Dodgers do own a major league-best +226 run differential, but by virtue of their 75 victories, which works out to a three-run margin on average per victory. The Dodgers’ success comes from working counts, getting into bullpens, and keeping opponents in check.
Ryan and Dodgers starter Julio Urias both have given up two runs or less in five of their last six starts. And while Ryan did give up 10 runs to the Padres on July 29, he showed it was more of an aberration when he went six scoreless innings Wednesday at San Francisco.
Our pick: Game under 8.5 runs, -110 (BetMGM)
Striking down strikeouts
Urias has never been a dominating strikeout pitcher, and now he faces a club that is in the top 10 in baseball in the least number of strikeouts with 877. That is 12 less than the Dodgers, who have prided themselves on contact with Turner and Freeman near the top of the order
Since a season-high 10 strikeouts on June 12 at San Francisco, Urias has averaged just 5.9 strikeouts per outing and has not been over six Ks in any of his last three starts. And it’s not like he hasn’t been around the plate with just 10 walks in his last 10 starts.
Urias’ strategy is to lean on an elite defense, which is solid on the infield and first-rate in the outfield with Betts, Cody Bellinger, Trayce Thompson, and now Joey Gallo. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers are second in baseball with 60 defensive runs saved.
Our pick: Urias under 5.5 strikeouts, -110 (BetMGM)