When you’re in a title race, every match is a must-win game.
But for Arsenal Football Club, Sunday’s contest with West Ham United is monumental.
The Gunners are in first place in the Premier League by five points with eight matches to go, but Manchester City now controls its own destiny thanks to having a game in hand and the fact that the two rivals play one another April 26.
If City wins the game in hand and defeats Arsenal, they’ll pass the Gunners.
But that’s getting ahead of ourselves a bit.
For now, the focus for Arsenal has to be taking care of business against West Ham United, a team that had much higher expectations than being in a relegation scrap.
Do the Hammers have a chance to deal a serious blow to Arsenal’s title hopes on Sunday?
Arsenal vs. West Ham pick
(9 a.m. Eastern)
While West Ham are, by definition, in a relegation scrap, there really doesn’t seem to be too much concern around this club.
Sure, they’d love to have more than three points between them and the drop zone, but all season long it’s been pretty apparent that the Hammers are better than their record implies.
All you need to do to see that is look at the club’s goal difference (-12) and compare it to their expected goal difference (+1.3).
A team with West Ham’s statistical portfolio — especially its defensive numbers — should be comfortably sitting in the middle of the table, not white-knuckling through a relegation tussle.
As for Arsenal, its season-long numbers still sparkle, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Gunners are starting to show some cracks as we head down the stretch.
From Matchweek 1 until the World Cup break in November, Arsenal conceded 11 goals and 11.8 expected goals in 14 matches.
Since returning to action on Boxing Day, the Gunners have allowed 18 goals from 22.1 xG in 16 matches.
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Those are not terrible numbers, but considering this is a club in a battle for the top of the league, it needs to improve defensively if they want to keep City at bay.
Betting against a team with Arsenal’s offensive capabilities is scary, but West Ham’s defense has been stout all season.
The Hammers rank fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed, eighth in shots against per 90 and seventh in big scoring chances conceded.
West Ham can turn this game into a rock fight and that’s all you’re asking out of an underdog with a +500 price tag.
Arsenal vs. West Ham prediction
West Ham +500 (FanDuel)