Week 2 of the NFL is here, and we have player props to target and some very off-market bets.
Below, we target Zach Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Anthony Richardson and Darren Waller on Sunday.
On Monday, we were a perfect 3-0 on pick ’em props, and we hope to get even more profit with some longer odds bets in Week 2.
Week 2 NFL player props and anytime touchdown scorers
Zach Wilson anytime touchdown +1100 (FanDuel)
Bad line alert on this wonderful Friday afternoon.
Fair value for this is +700, and there are books as low as +550 on DraftKings here.
This will be gone within a few hours, but worth hitting if you see this in time. It is also +1000 on PointsBet.
Not to be disrespectful to Wilson, but he isn’t a very good thrower of the football.
Where he shines is his rushing ability.
He was looking to get into the end-zone with his legs multiple times before his bad throw/incredible touchdown catch by Garrett Wilson.
Wilson has a nose for rushing touchdowns as well; he rushed for four in his rookie season and five total.
Not that this is a reason to bet alone, but he has five rushing TDs in 22 games, so one every 4.4 games.
Anthony Richardson anytime touchdown scorer +190 (FanDuel)
When you’re good at something in sports betting, lean into it and pounce on it.
And I am very good at finding quarterback-rushing touchdowns and rushing prop value.
Look no further than Richardson, who will basically operate as the goal line back for the Colts under head coach Shane Steichen.
He made Jalen Hurts a running wizard at quarterback last year and is a very worthy bet against the Texans who allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season.
Most books have this in the +140 rate, so we are getting an excellent edge here.
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Saquon Barkley over 19.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel) | 35+ +255 (DraftKings)
Saquon Barkley’s over 19.5 receiving yards is also on FanDuel and is a yard off his total, most other books have it at 20.5 or 21.5.
The Giants have vowed to get Barkley more involved in the passing game and the Cardinals stink at stopping their opponents’ underneath completions.
In 2022, the Cardinals allowed an 84.9 percent completion rate to running backs, the worst in the league, and they are without Isaiah Simmons, the now-Giants position-less linebacker who graded very well in coverage last season.
The Cardinals allowed the fourth-most yards receiving to opposing running backs (810), second-most receiving touchdowns (seven), and most yards per target (6.81).
Look for Barkley to embarrass the Cardinals’ pass defense and ladder this line wherever you can.
DraftKings has 35+ at +255, which is a fine wager as well.
Darren Waller first touchdown scorer +1000 (BetMGM)
This bet is best on the market as the Giants will look to get their tight end involved in a very juicy matchup opposite tight ends.
The Cardinals allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends in 2022, the most in the NFL and they allowed a 77.5 percent catch rate, second highest in the league.
Throw away last week and chalk up the Commanders’ poor offensive performance on why Sam Howell looked abysmal last week.
The Cardinals defense is not talented, and should continue to struggle against running backs and tight ends in 2023.