What is one thing better than looking ahead to a bright future you are certain is to come? When that future hurries to get to you more quickly than anticipated.
Need an example? How about the Houston Texans? No one thought they were going to rise from the sewers of the league to become an instant contender last season. Sure, they drafted a franchise QB of the future, but few thought that future was really the present.
This can happen at times in on the fantasy front, too. Think Lions tight end Sam LaPorta last season. People thought he would become a leading fantasy asset at that position, eventually. But he did it right away.
Others take a little longer. They might be parked behind a starter, but when they get their chance, they skip to the front of the fantasy line. One such scenario involves rookie Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving.
Currently, he is best utilized as a handcuff to entrenched starter Rachaad White. But anyone who peruses boxscores or steals a glance at advanced stats is aware of the terrible inefficiency of White.
Last season, White had nine broken tackles, according to Pro Football Reference — on 272 rush attempts. For comparison, Travis Etienne Jr. lead the league with 31 broken tackles, on five fewer attempts. Zach Charbonnet had one more with 10 broken tackles, and he had just 108 carries.
White averaged a woeful 3.7 yards per carry in 2023, tied for 80th among all running backs — along with Tyler Allgeier, just ahead of DeeJay Dallas.
So far this season, White is even worse, much worse — 2.0 per carry. Irving, meanwhile, has gotten roughly 40 percent of the RB rush attempts for the Bucs, and he has averaged 5.3 — more than twice what White is gaining per carry.
The reason behind the difference is interesting. Neither have broken a bunch of tackles (both have just one). White is actually doing noticeably better after contact, with 50 YAC yards compared to just 31 for Irving.
Where there is a stark difference in Irving’s favor is in yards before contact. Pro football Reference has Irving with 60, and White with … zero. Nil. Nada. Deebo Samuel, a wide receiver, is the only other player this season with at least 10 rush attempts with worse pre-contact yardage, at minus-1.
How could this be? Is it a technical glitch? Human error? Does White’s offensive line hate him? Or does he just hit the hole slowly? Maybe he is bad at avoiding contact?
Here’s the thing: Irving is younger, appears to have more “sudden-ness” in both the eye test and on the data sheet, and he doesn’t have a groin issue.
over the Commanders. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
Oh yeah, that’s right, we almost forgot. White has a sore groin. It briefly forced him out of last week’s game at Detroit. He went back in but was ineffective. He has spent the week being limited in practices.
He does not appear in danger of missing the game, but that doesn’t mean he will get a full workload. Also, he could aggravate the problem. Or he could continue to be ineffective, which could lead to more usage for a more effective Irving.
Or … the Bucs could pull ahead of a dreadful Denver team then grind out the clock to win easy but ugly. That type of game would mean more rush attempts than normal by the Bucs offense. And in a game they are controlling, there would be no need to force-feed an ailing, ineffective starter. Thus introducing: the Bucky Irving breakout game.
Now look, these scenarios aren’t necessarily likely, but they are certainly possible. Don’t sit a stud to play Irving. But if you’re waffling with a Zach Moss or Zamir White type, then buck the norm and play some Bucky.
Big Weeks
Alexander Mattison RB, Raiders, vs. Panthers (FanDuel $5,700/DraftKings $5,400)
Neither he nor lead Radiers RB Zamir White have been impressive. But Mattison has gotten both red zone carries so far. And there could be scoring opportunities against the Panthers.
Jauan Jennings WR, 49ers, at Rams (FD $5,200/DK $4,100)
Deebo Samuel is likely out, George Kittle is iffy with a hamstring problem and Brandon Aiyuk has been invisible. Oh, and no Christian McCaffrey either.
Demarcus Robinson WR, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $6,100/DK $5,000)
Speaking of players who are out: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Matthew Stafford isn’t a terrible QB, and Robinson is best bet to get a bump at WR — though we are more bullish on TE Colby Parkinson.
Diontae Johnson WR, Panthers, at Raiders (FD $5,300/DK $4,900)
Yeah, we know. We’re Diontae truthers. Or maybe we’re Carolina homers. But if light at WR, we’ll give Johnson one more shot now that Andy Dalton is his QB.
Small Weaks
Kyren Williams RB, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $7,500/DK $7,100)
With no receivers, facing a tough defense, when you’ve already struggled to get your running game going, this week probably ain’t the week you get to fixin’ it.
Carson Steele RB, Chiefs, at Falcons (FD $5,200/DK $5,400)
He was one of thew week’s hot pickups, and we’re not down on him long-term. But we want to see how the workload is distributed between him and Samaje Perine before we force Steele into our lineups.
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James Conner RB, Cardinals, vs. Lions (FD $7,400/DK $6,600)
The Lions were the toughest defenses against opposing RBs last season — by more than a full PPR point per game. But how about this season? So far, though D vs. opposing RBs, again.
Cam Akers RB, Texans, at Vikings (FD $4,000/DK $4,700)
Joe Mixon (ankle) and backup Dameon Pierce (hamstring) have missed practices this week, so here comes Akers to haunt you again. He has burned us too often in the past. He is nothing more than a DFS dart to us.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (13 games)
Type: $15 tourney
Top prize: $250K
Pot: $2M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Sam Darnold, Min (vs. Hou) $7,100
RB: Bucky Irving, TB (vs. Den) $5,200
RB: Saquon Barkley, Phi (at NO) $8,700
WR: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Hou) $9,200
WR: Nico Collins, Hou (at Min) $7,600
WR: Rashee Rice, KC (at Atl) $7,300
TE: Colby Parkinson, LAR (vs. SF) $5,300
Flex: Jauan Jennings, SF (at LAR) $5,200
DEF: 49ers, SF (at LAR) $4,400
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Kyler Murray, Ari (vs. Det) $8,300
RB: Bucky Irving, TB (vs. Den) $5,200
RB: Jordan Mason, SF (at LAR) $8,300
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ari (vs. Det) $7,500
WR: Jameson Williams, Det (at Ari) $6,300
WR: Diontae Johnson, Car (at LV) $5,300
TE: Brock Bowers, LV (vs. Car) $6,300
Flex: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Hou) $9,200
DEF: Giants, NYG (at Cle) $3,300
Late roster changes, check @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on Threads
Season risked: $32
Season’s winnings: Jarad $34, Drew $0
