On Saturday, No. 18 Michigan hosts No. 11 USC in a pivotal Big Ten matchup between ranked opponents.
The Wolverines are off to a rocky start, struggling to maintain consistency.
The Trojans, meanwhile, will be well-rested after a bye week that followed victories over LSU and Utah State to open the season.
Where does the value lie in this fascinating matchup? Let’s explore.
When USC has the ball
After Caleb Williams became the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, Miller Moss took over at quarterback for USC. He’s been waiting for years to get this opportunity, and despite having limited experience, he’s shown tremendous poise.
Lincoln Riley has routinely praised Moss for his coolness under pressure and an ability to not turn over the ball; he has just one turnover-worthy play through two starts, per PFF.
The Trojans are loaded with pass-catching talent, led by sophomore Zachariah Branch, who is a big play waiting to happen. Tight end Lake McRee leads the team with nine catches for 137 yards, while Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane each have a touchdown.
Michigan’s defense has plenty of talent, featuring cornerback Will Johnson and defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. However, the team’s metrics are lacking in some key areas. The Wolverines rank outside the top 100 in defensive havoc and 85th in EPA per dropback allowed.
In Weeks 1 and 2, Fresno State’s Mikey Keene and Texas’ Quinn Ewers completed 12 of their 20 passes 10-plus yards downfield. Michigan is blitzing at about a 20% higher rate this year than last, resulting in more coverage busts on the back end.
Moss ranks fourth in PFF passing grade against the blitz this season, and he can take advantage of the Wolverines’ defense with explosive plays.
When Michigan has the ball
After Davis Warren threw three interceptions against Arkansas State, the Wolverines announced they’d go with Alex Orji under center this week.
At 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, Orji is an excellent athlete who appeared on Bruce Feldman’s popular “Freaks List.” He offers far more upside from a rushing perspective, which should work well in this game.
While new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has added a much-needed semblance of fundamental integrity and consistency to the USC defense, the Trojans have still allowed 5.94 yards per rush, which ranks 95th in the country. Kalel Mullings ranks seventh out of 76 qualified running backs with 5.14 yards after contact per attempt.
Keep an eye on Colston Loveland’s status for the Wolverines.
The First-Team All-Big Ten tight end left last week’s game, but head coach Sherrone Moore said Loveland was “feeling positive” leading up to Saturday.
USC vs. Michigan pick
I expect both offenses to hold critical advantages in this game, which should make this a higher-scoring battle than some expect. The total opened at 52.5 but quickly got bet down to as low as 44.
Moss should be able to handle Michigan’s blitz and get the ball to USC’s cadre of weapons, while the insertion of Orji into the lineup should pay dividends against a run defense that still looks shaky.
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The key number for most game totals is 45, and as of this writing, we’re under that.
I’d play the over up to 47 points.
Best bet: Over 44 points (-111, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.