Michigan’s national title defense has been underwhelming this year and its 4-2 record is misleading.
The No. 24 Wolverines narrowly escaped against USC and Minnesota before losing to Washington.
Coming off a bye week, can coach Sheronne Moore right the ship with a road test against No. 22 Illinois?
We’ve seen a steady stream of Michigan money all week, moving this line from an opener of -1.5 for the Wolverines to the current -4.5.
Let’s dive in and see if there’s any value left in Saturday’s Big Ten matchup.
Michigan vs. Illinois odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | -4.5 (-108) | -185 | o44.5 (-108) |
| Illinois | +4.5 (-112) | +154 | u44.5 (-112) |
When Michigan has the ball
Moore won’t admit it publicly, but I fully believe he intended to name Jack Tuttle his starting quarterback this season. An offseason elbow injury, however, threw a wrench into those plans, and we didn’t see Tuttle until the second quarter against Washington.
Tuttle had an interception and a fumble in the game but it was his first live reps in nearly a year, and he’s a better downfield passer than Alex Orji or Davis Warren.
With the benefit of a bye week to get up to speed in the offense, I expect Tuttle to play a much cleaner game this week. Tight end Colston Loveland’s return to full health after missing the USC game will also be pivotal.
However, I don’t expect Tuttle to need to do a ton in this game. The Wolverines will bully an Illini run defense that ranks 105th in defensive line yards. Expect Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to churn out chunk yardage, keeping Tuttle out of obvious passing situations on third-and-long.
When Illinois has the ball
Luke Altmyer has had a strong season under center for the Illini, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and passing for 14 touchdowns to one interception.
However, according to Pro Football Focus, the former Ole Miss transfer is due for some negative regression with nine big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays.
Altmyer has especially struggled under pressure, with an 8.4% turnover-worthy play rate. According to PFF, Michigan has the best pass rush unit in the country and Illinois ranks just 93rd in pass-blocking.
Elite defensive linemen Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Josaiah Stewart can take this game over on passing downs.
It will be difficult for the Illini to avoid those obvious passing situations, as Michigan ranks third in the country in rushing success rate allowed and Illinois ranks 105th in rushing success rate on offense.
When the Illini faced Penn State, a similarly elite run defense, their running backs finished with 17 carries for just 62 yards (3.6 YPC).
Michigan vs. Illinois pick
It has to be mentioned that Illinois almost lost to Purdue last week. The Illini escaped with a one-point win in overtime, but the Boilermakers had a 69% postgame win expectancy.
This was the same Purdue team that lost to Wisconsin by 46 points the week prior and had not played within 17 points of an FBS opponent all season.
Coming off a bye week with an opportunity to get its third starting quarterback of the year up to speed, this looks like a solid buy-low point for the Wolverines.
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Michigan’s defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I’m banking on Wink Martindale’s group putting constant pressure on Altmyer, especially with Illinois’ struggling run game.
I’d be surprised if Michigan’s passing attack performed on average for the rest of the season. Still, it might not need to this week, given the considerable advantage the Wolverines should have in the run game.
I’m backing Michigan as a road favorite in this spot against an overrated Illinois team primed to fall back down to earth.
Best bet: Michigan -3.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.