The College Football Playoff thus far has sparked endless discussion about the merits of the fringe teams and their at-large bids.
While experienced sports bettors mostly ignore that unfulfilling and unrewarding dialogue, they are still sports fans at the core and constantly formulate opinions and perceptions.
The favorites in the four first-round matchups all covered and mostly with ease. Sure, the games could’ve unfolded differently, if not for an early misstep by the underdogs, but ultimately the games were mismatches.
And that impacts how we handicap the quarterfinals. But the venue is a variable that may get overlooked.
“Everyone was disappointed there were four blowouts and no great games in the first round, but you have to remember those were clearly superior favorites playing on four of the strongest home fields in the nation,” Las Vegas veteran handicapper and VSiN senior editor and host Matt Youmans told Only Players via text message.
Boise State vs. Penn State odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | +11.5 (-110) | +340 | Over 54.5. (-110) |
| Penn State | -11.5 (-110) | -450 | Uder 54.5. (-110) |
Boise State vs. Penn State prediction
(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
“I would not overreact to the lopsided scores, which we also often see early in the NFL playoffs. The weakest teams have been eliminated. This round will be much more competitive because it’s a different situation on neutral fields.”
I agree with this assessment. The neutral field levels the playing field and reinforces a cardinal betting rule that one must routinely forget what they last saw. That’s why I am backing No. 3 Boise State +11 points in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.
The Broncos obviously have the nation’s best running back in Ashton Jeanty and No. 6 Penn State will certainly have its hands full. But Boise State also has a capable quarterback in Maddux Madsen and a defense that can contain a solid but not dominant Nittany Lions offense.
Doubters bash the Mountain West Conference and that’s a fair criticism. But the key for me is the Broncos losing 37-34 to top-ranked Oregon at Autzen Stadium. They went toe-to-toe with the nation’s lone unbeaten and even led at halftime. If not for two special teams touchdowns, perhaps the Ducks do not escape the upset.
Ironically, this is their common opponent with Penn State. The Nittany Lions hung tough for a while in the Big Ten championship game but the Ducks won and covered, 45-37.
“Look at Penn State, which is a bully at home yet not so tough on the Big Ten road. The Lions barely beat USC (33-30 in overtime) and Minnesota (26-25) away from home,” Youmans said, reinforcing his point about the neutral field. He bet Boise State +11 and No. 4 Arizona State +13.5 against No. 5 Texas.
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It’s hard to ignore how the pretenders looked against contenders in the first round. But the gap in the quarterfinals may not be that wide.
PICK: Boise State +11.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.