With the General Election rapidly approaching YouGov has released their estimations for what will happen in every Surrey seat. With only one constituency listed as safe, these suggest that a couple of areas could change political colour.

Called a Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model, YouGov’s system aims to estimate how vote intention would look in each constituency Currently Surrey is represented by eleven Conservative MPs, but boundary changes, as well as the standing down of several current MPs means that whatever the result, the political picture will look different on July 5.

READ MORE: Five Surrey General Election seats to watch as Lib Dems and Labour look to gain

Like with polls, there is uncertainty around these numbers. The number given for each party, is what YouGov have deemed the most likely value, which itself sits within a range. It's important to note that it could end up being higher or lower.

Take a look below for the numbers for each seat.

Dorking and Horley:

This is forecast as leaning Liberal Democrats. Currently the seat is Conservative held, but its long time MP Sir Paul Beresford is standing down.

The estimate is:

  • Liberal Democrats - 36.9%
  • Conservative - 30.9%
  • Labour 16.2%

East Surrey:

This is forecast as likely Conservative. If this comes to fruition would mean that it would be a conservative hold.

The forecast is:

  • Conservative - 39.4%
  • Labour - 22.5%
  • Liberal democrats - 21.9%

Epsom and Ewell:

YouGov has marked this as a toss up for the Conservatives. Chris Grayling has held the seat for the party since 2001, but is not standing again.

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 33.4%
  • Liberal democrats - 31.7%
  • Labour - 21.7%
Views of the Epsom Downs in the borough of Epsom and Ewell
Views of the Epsom Downs in the borough of Epsom and Ewell

Farnham and Bordon:

This is currently pegged as a lean Conservative. As a newly created seat there is no current serving MP.

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 39.2%
  • Liberal democrats - 32.7%
  • Labour - 16.4%

Godalming and Ash:

This is being forecast as likely Liberal Democrat. Another new seat, it is made up of bits of the Surrey West constituency

The estimate is:

  • Liberal democrats - 45.7%
  • Conservative - 30.6%
  • Labour - 12.2%

Guildford:

This is the only Surrey seat that YouGov has marked as ‘safe’. They are forecasting a gain for the Liberal Democrats. from the Conservatives.

The estimate is:

  • Liberal democrats - 50.7%
  • Conservative - 25%
  • Labour - 12.8%
Guildford's high street
Guildford's high street

Reigate:

This has been labelled by YouGov as likely Conservative. Independent MP for Reigate Crispin Blunt was originally elected as a Conservative and will also not stand for election again in the summer

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 38.9%
  • Labour - 26%
  • Liberal Democrats - 15.7%

Surrey Heath:

Marked as a toss up for the Liberal Democrats the seat is currently held by the Conservatives. Current MP Micheal Gove has announced he is standing down.

The estimate is:

  • Liberal democrats - 36.2%
  • Conservative - 34.1%
  • Labour - 14.9%

Runnymede and Weybridge:

YouGov have labelled this as lean Conservative, if this was the result it would be a Conservative hold.

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 34.1%
  • Liberal Democrats - 27.1%
  • Labour - 22.4 %

Spelthorne:

Named as a tossup for Conservatives. Current MP Kwasi Kwarteng who has held the seat for the Tories since 2010 is standing down.

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 33.9%
  • Labour- 32.3%
  • Liberal Democrats - 13.2 %

Windsor:

Containing a bit of Runnymede, this seat is forecast as a toss up for the Conservatives.

The estimate is:

  • Conservative - 34.6%
  • Labour - 31.9%
  • Liberal Democrats - 17.3%

Woking:

Marked as likely Liberal Democracy, this result would be a gain from the Conservative.

The estimate is:

  • Liberal Democrats - 43.3%
  • Conservative - 26.1%
  • Labour - 16.8%

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