The M’s at the Half-Way Point: Grading the Rebuild
The M’s are half-way through this bizarre season. They’re nowhere near contention, but then that was never the goal. The goal is to start to see the outlines of what a contending team might look like. While the team keeps kicking out the date at which they’re supposed to be in the running, or at least not out-and-out bad. The key this season was to identify a number of players who could be regulars on a not-awful version of the M’s. You’ll recognize this as the goal of the last few M’s campaigns as well. But now that the full-on rebuild’s in swing, the M’s *must* identify some key players who’ll lead them to contention. It’s not enough to be young. It’s time to be young and at least intermittently good.
I think one of the frustrating things about the past few years is that any definitive evaluation of the rebuild had to wait. Sure, Marco Gonzales was doing fine, but the peripherals were concerning. JP Crawford had a great first half, and a lousy second half, and that went triple for Dan Vogelbach. Shed Long was alright. There were flashes of promise, and if you squinted, you could see progress. But the overall numbers were concerning. I think so many fans, myself included, want clear, unambiguous signs that the player development group has unlocked potential in the M’s young hopefuls, and that we could say that the first phase of the rebuild was done. But baseball’s rarely that clear, or rather, *Mariners* baseball is rarely that clear.
Justus Sheffield has pretty clearly taken a step forward with his new sinker/slider approach, and despite my worries about velocity, Marco Gonzales is on the best run of his career. These were two keys to the upside pieces I wrote in 2019 and 2020, and while it took some time, we may be getting ready to check these off the to-do list. But at the same time, several other key young players have struggled. We’ve gone over Evan White’s unpleasant introduction to the major leagues quite a bit, but at 100 plate appearances, he’s still got a K% over 40%, and has a wRC+ of 52. Better than where it was, but…really not good. He’s made 17 starts in August, and notched at least one K in 16 of them. Shed Long’s wRC+ is even lower, at 39, and the surprising pop he showed last year hasn’t re-appeared. That’s the story of JP Crawford’s 2020, too. Despite improvements in his K:BB ratio and rates overall, he’s hitting for no power whatsoever, leaving him with a slugging percentage below .300. He’s essentially matching his production from the second half of last year, an injury-marred period in which he looked like a shadow of the player who’d been so good in the spring.
Mallex Smith appears like he may follow Vogelbach out of town. He’s already been demoted, and looked lost on his way to a wRC+ of…uh…-5. He’d already lost his CF job, and his bat doesn’t come close to playing in a corner, so he may moved for perennially useful cash considerations soon. Dee Gordon’s contract may be a sticking point, but he too has lost even the utility role he had, now that the M’s suddenly have utility players all over the clubhouse. Gordon’s looked miserable, which is tough to watch for a guy with his personality and appeal. It’s simply not working, and at his age, he’s not a part of this rebuild anyway.
That’s all quite depressing, but it’s balanced by the one thing I never thought the M’s could do. For years, I’ve been saying that to really ensure that a rebuild was possible, they needed to identify an actual star-level player. Not a 3-5 win guy who would represent the team well at the All Star game, but an actual star – someone capable of winning MVP votes. They really haven’t had that since Felix was last great, and just given the nature of the players they were bringing up, it seemed like they might have to continue selling fans on the promise of Julio Rodriguez/Jarred Kelenic. Enter Kyle Lewis. His initial call-up was breathtaking, with a somewhat unexpected power surge, but the K rate was a concern. It’s just 30 games, but I seriously don’t think they could’ve gone any better for Lewis. Not only is he showing more bat-to-ball contact skills, he’s drawing way more walks. Not only has that in-game power still a part of his game, but he’s playing a decent center field. Yes, the BABIP will come down, and yes, pitchers will adjust, and he doesn’t have to face the formidable rotations of Cleveland or Chicago or Cincinnati, but this is a package that is capable of getting to 7-8 WAR in good years. This is the elite-level talent that the M’s have been looking for.
One of the other keys to the season is getting more intel on how the competition stacks up. This, too, has been something of a mixed bag, but in general I think things look a bit less bleak than they did a few months or a year ago. The Astros, beset by injuries and regression, are not quite the juggernaut they’ve been. There are still excellent players there, but they can’t just plug in another young player and have an instant boost the way they did with Carlos Correa years ago or Yordan Alvarez and Jose Urquidy in 2019. They’ve still got some interesting young arms coming up, including a few who handcuffed the M’s on the recent road trip, but they no longer look their player development overall is in a completely different league. They have Bregman locked up for years and are quite a bit better in terms of talent than the M’s right now, but they could lose additional players in the coming years as their contracts expire.
The Angels got one of the biggest prizes in free agency in Anthony Rendon, and have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for the foreseeable future, giving them the best group of core players in the division. Yes, they’re older than the M’s, Astros, and Athletics best players, but by a surprisingly small margin. But as we’ve seen so often in Anaheim, it hasn’t translated into success quite yet. Jo Adell has fewer at-bats, but may catch up to Evan White in strikeouts in the second half. Justin Upton looks done, and Pujols has been for quite some time. Not even the emergence of David Fletcher has been enough. The problem remains – as it has for several years – in their pitching staff, and in particular, the rotation. The Angels got the free agent bargain of the winter in Dylan Bundy, who’s been shockingly good, but even that just highlights how bad his compatriots have been. Angels starters have gone 4-15 with an ERA of 5.84 *despite the fact* that Bundy is 3-2 with an ERA of 2.58.
Julio Teheran has shown that the Angels don’t have magical powers to fix one-time prospects, as he’s sporting an ERA over 12. Shohei Ohtani can’t pitch again this season, and may never pitch again in the bigs. The Angels always feel a small step from contention, but haven’t been able to make that small step, and could miss their window if Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, and the other pitchers don’t step it up. Bundy may not be in LA for long, after all.
The A’s are as-advertised. Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano, and Matt Olson are a formidable middle-of-the-order, and all three play great defense. They’ve gotten big years from Mark Canha and Robbie Grossman, and they remain an annoyingly good team, with a core not too much older than Seattle’s. They’ve been hit hard by injuries in their rotation over the past few years, but are seeing a healthy Jesus Luzardo stake a claim to a rotation spot, and Chris Bassitt show that last year’s breakout was for real. They’re not perfect or anything; Mike Fiers is regressing and Sean Manaea’s velocity is all over the map, dipping well into the mid-high 80s at times. There’s clearly less talent in the pipeline for Oakland than for Seattle, but there’s much less need for it, too. This team will be battling the M’s for contention whenever the M’s see fit to compete.
Texas looks lost. I’m not trying to take anything away from the M’s sweep of the Rangers that marked the high point of the first half, but the Rangers look completely sunk – they don’t look ready to play in many games, and several veteran players they’ve depended on look like they’d rather be anywhere else. Rougned Odor has seemed on the edge of playing himself out of the team and maybe the league these past few seasons, but he’s removing any doubt this year – he’s been perhaps the worst player in baseball in 2020. The Rangers no-glove, all-bat prospect, Willie Calhoun, has been awful as well, even worse than his collapse in 2018. Elvis Andrus fell off a cliff in 2019, and has now discovered a new, deeper cliff to plunge from. Lance Lynn remains good, but Mike Minor’s brilliant 2019 looks like a bizarre outlier, and their youngsters haven’t been able to step up and solidify the rotation. I’m seriously not sure where they go from here; Nick Solak’s good, and one of their top prospects, CF Leody Taveras, debuted tonight. But like the M’s, they had a lot of young pitching prospects, but unlike the M’s, they couldn’t stash them on the 60-man player pool. It was supposed to be a crucial year of development for the likes of Hans Crouse, Yerry Rodriguez, and Cole Winn, and it’s not going to happen. The team looks considerably worse than they have in recent years, and would’ve loved to sell high on the likes of Minor, Lynn, and Kyle Gibson, but may be forced to just wait.
The fear I’ve had is that another wave of talent in Houston, Oakland, Anaheim, or all three would make Seattle’s job much, much tougher. By and large, that hasn’t happened, and while it still could, the gap between the M’s and their rivals doesn’t look certain to grow over the next few years. That’s an opportunity the M’s absolutely need to grab, and it makes watching Crawford or White struggle that much harder. The M’s don’t have unlimited time here, and they need to know who they can count on. They now have their CF of the future, and at least a couple of rotation slots seem in decent hands before the next wave of M’s SP prospects arrives. Yusei Kikuchi still receives an incomplete grade, as his stuff has ticked up, but he’s still incapable of pitching out of trouble. It’d be nice to know that Mitch Haniger will be back in some kind of reasonable shape in 2021 to check off another line-up box. But the infield is still something of a question mark, particularly if the M’s move the resurgent Kyle Seager. Justin Dunn still seems like a bullpen arm, despite his first unalloyed great game yesterday. The bullpen looks bad, but it almost seemed designed to fail.
The grade will improve if Shed Long and/or JP Crawford pull out of their tailspin and finish the year with overall production close to league average. That’s hard to do in 30 games given the hole they’ve dug for themselves, but they’re remarkably streaky hitters and a hot streak would soothe my pessimistic mind. The grade will improve if Marco Gonzales stays hot, and doesn’t repeat his Jekyll and Hyde 2019, and if Justus Sheffield finishes the year with an ERA/FIP/DRA under 4. It’ll improve if Evan White’s second-half K rate is under 30%, and his production is league-averageish. And it’ll improve if the M’s receive meaningful talent in deadline deals, probably involving Tai Walker and, less likely, Seager. Overall, I’d give them a C+/B-, but so much of that’s due to Lewis. What do you think? Am I overreacting to small samples on White/Long/Crawford? Too optimistic on Lewis and the rest of the AL West? When do you think this team can compete?
Comments
10 Responses to “The M’s at the Half-Way Point: Grading the Rebuild”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Yusei Kikuchi still receives an incomplete grade, as his stuff has ticked up, but he’s still incapable of pitching out of trouble.
This is going to be pretty annoying if Jerry’s one big FA spend for 2019-2020 (and possibly 2021) is a just a huge bust.
it’ll improve if the M’s receive meaningful talent in deadline deals, probably involving Tai Walker and, less likely, Seager
I think a one month rental for Walker is unlikely to fetch much more than, at best, a mildly interesting prospect.
Seager’s contract has a very expensive vesting option if he’s traded. It makes zero sense to blow a 2-3 WAR hole in your MLB talent and send $30 million to whoever to get some not top-shelf talent back, and then have to go pick up a veteran FA for 2021 to get right back where you started from. He’s also only under contract for one year. The downside risk to just giving him that final year on his contract is pretty low. The payroll for 2021 is going to be pretty light now that Haniger’s spent two years on the DL.
The M’s don’t need more 50/50 coinflips between Mallex Smith and Dylan Moore right now if they are serious about improving the team for 2021. They need actual solid MLB players now to take the next step, not another year to sort out which busted/B-level prospect they can fix and who is really a bust, or playing guys who really ought to be in AA/AAA.
Seager is already that player. Keep him.
What do you think? Am I overreacting to small samples on White/Long/Crawford?
Maybe, but that’s all we get, isn’t it?
I share some skepticism that they’re the answers (I think White is going to turn into a better fielding version of Justin Smoak- I wouldn’t mind seeing the M’s try and push him in 2021). I also would point out that Austin Nola is 30, and Dylan Moore is almost a year older than Mallex Smith, with a minor league career that has zero indication of a .900 OPS hitter in MLB. They’re nice stories but I don’t think we should get deeply attached.
We do have Marte behind them (and I guess Dylan Moore, SuperSub™).
Too optimistic on Lewis and the rest of the AL West?
I like Lewis and his development is the start of the outline of the next good M’s team. Sheffield and to a lesser extent Dunn are part of it too.
When do you think this team can compete?
I’m think I’ve spewed a lot words on my skepticism in game threads, but I’d say I don’t think 2021 is going to be a year where the M’s pay out a lot of money to FAs. Seattle isn’t going to have the instant contention factor going, which means they need to whip out the pocketbook. I think that’s a hard thing to do when the M’s are pretty far back from having a solid MLB roster. There are a lot of holes here.
It would be nice to see them invest in the bullpen (PLEASE), a credible middle infielder option to push the incumbents+Marte, and a 1B/corner OF/DH’y type to push White. Maybe resign Walker if he doesn’t get traded and stays decent. You could squint and see a .450-.500 team if you dropped in one of Kelenic/Rodriguez on top of that. That would get them in position to contend in 2022.
I am skeptical if they’re going to do all that, though. They might not do any of it if MLB finances are shaky, and prefer to do Nola/Moore/bullpen dumpster dives and just hope for something hitting the inside straight of some combo of Kelenic/Rodriguez/Marte/whoever all being on fire Lewis-style, and if not, 2021 is a mulligan.
So that means I think 2022 becomes the year where they might edge into contention if lucky, and really it’s 2023 and onward.
Kyle Lewis being a potential 7-8 win player in the right year to me outweighs basically everything else that could happen this year, at least in terms of things that are Mariners-specific: the loss of the minor league season presumably hurts teams like the M’s with real talent in the farm system more than other teams, but that’s just a guess. Sheffield and Marco also looking like legit mid-rotation starters also is a big plus.
I’m still reasonably optimistic about White: obviously the strikeouts are a very real concern, but at least he’s hit the ball hard with regularity. Obviously the bar offensively is much lower for JP, but I just don’t see how he is a consistently average hitter, or even slightly below average, with zero power.
I also think there are reasons to believe that Dylan Moore and Austin Nola (and probably Tom Murphy) can be useful pieces for the next few years: again, a wealth of cost-controlled players who can maybe run a 100-110 wRC+ at positions like catcher or 2B is maybe not the most exciting thing but players like that allow you to maximize what could be a remarkably talented and productive outfield in two-three years, as well as maybe make a big FA splash or two.
I no longer feel like I have to squint so hard that it hurts my head to see a competitive M’s team in the next few years. Some of that is as you said Marc, that the division just looks a lot softer than it might have appeared a year or two ago, but again, Lewis being a star means that Kelenic and Rodriguez panning out is no longer a prerequisite to a playoff team, but instead lays the groundwork for a legit contender. That’s not to say it will happen, but 2020 has (in my eyes) raised the floor and the ceiling on the Mariners for the next few years.
Lewis being a star means that Kelenic and Rodriguez panning out is no longer a prerequisite to a playoff team, but instead lays the groundwork for a legit contender. That’s not to say it will happen
See: Mike Trout, 2016-2020.
Mike Trout has generated something like 70 WAR and seen a grand total of three postseason games in a decade.
Sure, but the point is that the M’s path to contention no longer requires hitting on both Kelenic AND Rodriguez: they still need at least one of those guys to be a 5+ WAR guy, but you can build a playoff team around one of those and Lewis, and if you hit on both, you’re well-positioned to compete for a World Series. Previously Lewis was such a question mark that the more likely path was for both guys to become stars, which is obviously less likely than just one of them doing it.
The M’s have the potential for a star outfield and are at the beginning of what may be a wave of pitching talent (Gilbert/Kirby/Hancock/etc.) There are enough guys just below that level that a couple spots should be adequately covered within 2-3 years.
The infield and bullpen are full of question marks.. if there’s a chance to get Lindor he feels like the most perfect fit for the M’s needs. White’s emergence feels more important than ever. Honestly, I don’t think they try very hard to trade Seager right now.. He may be needed
Great post and update on the team. Seeing contention continually pushed out… 2021 22 23… is just so depressing. Out on the east coast since 2007, I don’t watch games anymore. I’ll catch highlights and keep up with the news here at USSM.
I just wanted to check back in. Been out of the State of WA for a bit, and miss the talk.
The future Outfield of,
LF Lewis,
CF Kelenic,
RF Rodriguez.
Very Nice.
Infield
1B White
SS Crawford, Maybe Marte even at 2B or 3B
C Raleigh
2B ??? Not Long
3B Seager, can he continue. Not at COST.
SP Gilbert
SP Kirby
SP Hancock
SP Gonzales. ??? will he last.
SP
That was all pretty fair, Marc.
I think the team can compete as early as next year, but contention is probably another two years out. The time it takes for players like Kelenic, Rodriguez, and Gilbert to adjust to MLB will dictate much of that, but it’s a positive sign that Seattle’s getting something from prospects/players that appeared less likely to offer above-average production. And like you suggested, they might have a much-needed star on their hands in Lewis.
Seattle really needs to draw a line and identify who they can probably lean on and who they shouldn’t. They can’t afford to give Shed Long and JP Crawford two more years to see if they can reach their ceilings. Same goes for Justin Dunn.
For what it’s worth, Evan White might be turning a corner. After starting the month with just 2 hits in his first 40 PA’s, he has put up a Kyle Lewis-esque week+ sample. I don’t want to get too excited just yet, but if he got the confidence boost he needed and maintains average or above-average numbers, perhaps he can build off that and assert himself as a core player along side of Lewis.
The deadline will be telling as well. I won’t blame them if they trade Walker, but I would hope they do everything they can to bring him back. I’d rather see him extended than traded, but he seems determined to test free agency and who can blame him? Seager is an interesting case. I would perfectly understand Seattle moving him if they could do so without eating salary. But if they really want to compete in 2021, he should stay put. The relievers on the table probably wouldn’t make any difference. Magill, Guilbeau, Hirano, Altavilla … whatever. Seattle’s bullpen will probably be comprised of rejected starters in the near future, such as Dunn, Newsome, and perhaps Williamson (and that’s not a knock on any of those guys). Delaplane and Mills might be of help as well, so I’m not terribly concerned with the ‘pen.
I’m curious if Seattle would consider another trade like we saw involving Stowers for Long. Jerry himself has suggested that a youth-for-youth trade might be more likely, though I wasn’t sure if he was referring to his own interests or what we’re more likely to see in general at the deadline and in the off-season. Maybe it was both. If he were willing to part with a prospect, would it be a pitcher? Nola’s value must be soaring at the moment and Moore is probably appealing as well. But those are players Seattle should hang on to if they have any hope of making noise next season.
Regardless, I’ll reiterate that they need to start investing in veterans soon to assist with the transition of so much (more) youth into MLB and actually contend.