Pro Picks: Bills will beat the Dolphins to win the AFC East title

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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The Miami Dolphins went from playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed to playing for their division to avoid the sixth spot this week.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills stand in their way.

The Bills-Dolphins will face off Sunday night in the NFL’s final regular-season game in a showdown for the AFC East title.

The Dolphins (11-5) had a shot at earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs but were pounded by Baltimore 56-19. If they beat Buffalo, they’ll secure the No. 2 seed.

The Bills (10-6) would get the two seed with a win. If they lose, they’d drop to sixth, seventh or completely out of the playoffs.

Miami is 1-4 against winning teams. A dynamic offense led by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill couldn’t get going against the Ravens. They’ll need to get back on track against Buffalo.

The Bills routed the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4. They’re 3-point favorites on the road, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pro Picks leans toward the playoff-tested Bills.

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BILLS, 34-27

PHILADELPHIA at NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Eagles minus 5 1/2

The free-falling Eagles (11-5) have lost four of five and now need a victory plus Dallas to get upset to win the division. The Giants (5-11) almost rallied for a win in Philly on Christmas.

BEST BET: EAGLES, 28-17

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS

Line: Texans minus 1 1/2

The winner clinches at least a wild-card spot and would win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose. The Colts beat the Texans 31-20 on the road in Week 3 behind Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew, who stepped in after the rookie starter got hurt.

UPSET SPECIAL: COLTS 24-23

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

Line: Steelers minus 3 1/2

The Steelers (9-7) are fighting for a playoff spot and sticking with Mason Rudolph at quarterback after two straight impressive games. The Ravens (13-3) locked up the No. 1 seed and are looking to avoid injuries.

STEELERS, 24-17

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS

Line: Saints minus 3

The winner would clinch the NFC South if the Buccaneers lose to Carolina. The Saints (8-8) kept their hopes alive with an impressive win at Tampa. The Falcons (7-9) have lost three of four.

SAINTS, 23-18

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI

Line: Bengals minus 6

The Bengals (8-8) are playing for a winning record. The Browns (11-5) already have locked up the AFC’s No. 5 seed.

BENGALS, 26-17

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE

Line: Jaguars minus 5 1/2

A four-game losing streak after an 8-3 start forced the Jaguars (9-7) into having to win the game to clinch their second straight AFC South. C.J. Beathard led them to a 26-0 win last week filling in for Trevor Lawrence. The Titans (5-11) are aiming to play spoiler.

JAGUARS, 23-20

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA

Line: Buccaneers minus 5 1/2

A banged-up Baker Mayfield gets his second chance to lead the Buccaneers (8-8) to the NFC South title. The lowly Panthers (2-14) were embarrassed on and off the field as owner David Tepper was fined $300,000 for throwing a drink at Jaguars fans toward the end of last week’s loss.

BUCCANEERS, 27-13

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND

Line: Patriots minus 2 1/2

The Patriots (4-12) could cost themselves draft positioning if they beat the Jets (6-10) in what could be Bill Belichick’s last game after an unprecedented run of success that included six Super Bowl titles.

PATRIOTS, 16-12

MINNESOTA at DETROIT

Line: Lions minus 3

The Vikings (7-9) need a win and plenty of help to make the playoffs. The Lions (11-5) can tie the franchise record of 12 wins in a season. They’ll be the NFC’s No. 2 or 3 seed.

LIONS, 30-20

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY

Line: Packers minus 3

A victory secures a playoff berth for Jordan Love and the Packers (8-8). The Bears (7-9) have won four of five and are facing an important offseason decision on Justin Fields.

PACKERS, 26-22

DALLAS at WASHINGTON

Line: Cowboys minus 13 1/2

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (11-5) need a win to clinch the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed. The Commanders (4-12) would ruin their rival’s hopes with an upset.

COWBOYS, 30-18

SEATTLE at ARIZONA

Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2

After losing five of seven, the Seahawks (8-8) now need a win and loss by the Packers to make the playoffs. The Cardinals (4-12) ruined Philadelphia’s division hopes last week and aim to mess up Seattle’s season.

SEAHAWKS, 24-20

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: 49ers minus 3

The 49ers (12-4) have clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Rams (9-7) will be either the No. 6 or 7 seed. Staying healthy is the priority for both teams so expect to see plenty of backups.

RAMS, 24-23

DENVER at LAS VEGAS

Line: Raiders minus 2 1/2

The Broncos (8-8) aim to finish with a winning record heading into a difficult offseason that starts with how to handle Russell Wilson’s situation. Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce gets one more chance at proving he deserves the job after going 4-4 in his first eight games.

RAIDERS, 24-16

KANSAS CITY at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Line: Chargers minus 3

Patrick Mahomes and the many starters on the Chiefs (10-6) could rest with the AFC West title already secured. The Chargers (5-11) are better off losing for draft positioning.

CHARGERS, 23-21

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Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 10-6

Overall: Straight up: 157-99. Against spread: 133-113-9.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-8. Against spread: 6-10-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-9. Against spread: 10-7.

Thursday: Straight up: 13-6. Against spread: 14-4-1.

Monday: Straight up: 9-12. Against spread: 13-7-1.

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