Arrow Minerals Limited reposted this
It has been an incredible past 6 months in the bauxite market - the Guinea price has reached US$130/t and the Australian price US$100/t, according to leading industry consultant CM Group. The price has been driven higher by strong demand in China, at a time of supply constraints in Indonesia, Guinea and China. A key question is how much of the price increase is temporary due to the supply constraints, and how much is structural. In our forecasts we assume a bit of both - the price is likely to revert as more supply from Guinea enters the market in 2025, but it seems unlikely that we're heading back to previous price points of US$40-50/t. It's a bit like what happened to iron ore in the 2000s. Chinese demand has overwhelmed its ability to supply itself domestically, and is now reliant on imports. It is remarkable that now half the world's aluminium is produced in China and half of China's bauxite supply comes from Guinea. It is a significant global risk to the aluminium supply chain. There are very few ways to play bauxite on the ASX. A stock that made Shaw and Partners top 10 list for 2025 is Metro Mining Ltd (ASX:MMI). MD Simon Wensley has repositioned MMI as the world's lowest cost producer of bauxite into China. Ask your Shaw advisor for our research. Another interesting developer is Arrow Minerals Limited - recent drilling results show that they have an exceptionally high quality resource in Guinea. The MD David Flanagan will be well known to investors from his days at Atlas Iron. #bauxite #aluminium #mininginvestment Please be advised that the advice we have prepared for you has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, before acting on any advice, you must consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your personal circumstances. If the advice we have provided relates to the purchase or possible purchase of a particular financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider it carefully.