IHFX

A larger than expected decline in US initial jobless claims and comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin eased market fears about a looming US recession and reduced demand for safe haven assets. The AUD/USD is extending its recovery, rising just below 0.66. The RBA's hawkish tilt earlier this week also act as a tailwind for the Aussie. In our view, the “hawkish tone” is no longer as justifiable as it used to be due to the mixed Australia’s fundamental status. Q2 GDP data will be important to convince the market then. At the moment, a 25bp cut by December is almost fully priced in. In short team, the AUD/USD is expected to consolidate around 0.6580 – 0.6650 level until US CPI data net week. #ihfx #fxpayment #aud #usd #hedging #treasury #riskmanagement #forecast

Broad #USdollar weakness continues to support the pair amid a cautious mood overnight. The #Fed is widely anticipated to implement a more aggressive rate cut beginning in September, following weaker employment data from July that has heightened concerns about a potential US #recession. The expectation of deeper rate cuts may put pressure on the US Dollar in the near term. #AUDUSD recovers further above 0.6550 (around 0.61%) today. #RBA Bullock's willingness to hike further sponsored the latest uptick in the Aussie. However, our question is if an RBA interest rate cut will happen this year. Financial markets are currently pricing a high chance (around 80%) by the December meeting. FX #volatility is expected to decrease as only the US jobless claims data will be released tonight. #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #hedging #treasury #riskmanagement #currency #forecast

Yesterday, the #RBA remained the policy rate was unchanged, and Governor Bullock sought to temper market expectations for impending cuts, all but ruling out a cut in the next 6 months. Swap rates have increased on the marginally hawkish language but sentiment is predominantly for lower rates. This, along with signs of stability in the financial markets underpins the Aussie. #AUDUSD recovered toward 0.6550. Given there is no tier one local economic data later this week, the focus is shifted to China's trade data and the Fed sentiment. The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut at the Sep 17-18 #FOMC meeting and at 75% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting. Any easing expectation for aggressive Fed rate cut would lift #USD. For more details ,please reach out support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #treasury #hedging #riskmanagement #forecast

AUD/USD climbs back above the 0.6500 psychological mark, supported by a positive turnaround in the equity markets. #RBA’s decision is due on this afternoon. Despite persistent high inflation, recent data has pointed to weaknesses in the Australian economy. This has prompted markets to shift their expectations from a potential rate hike by the RBA to a rate cut by year-end. The RBA is expected to keep rates steady, but our focus will be the central bank's policy guidance for any hints of a more dovish stance. 0.6585 is the pivot point in our view. The outlook for AUD/USD should remain weakness while 0.6450 level should be resilient. An order will be helpful in such a volatile market for both importing and exporting companies. If you need more information about how to use it, please feel free reach out support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #usd #hedging #treasury #riskmanagement #forecast

The US #employment data released on Friday shows the #labourmarket is colling further. All major indicators (nonfarm payroll, unemployment rate and average hourly wage) are easing. The #USD index fell by -1.17% as a result. However, the weaker-than-expected job report, along with the dismal ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, boosted the fears of a #recession. #AUDUSD is struggling around 0.65 level. Today, US ISM services report will be released. With CPI, PCE, NFP and ISM manufacturing reports all falling below consensus estimates, even if the figure surprises to the upside, we doubt it would remove the uncertainty over the US economy. A weak print could however weigh further on #sentiment, and therefore AUD/USD. #RBA policy meeting is due on Tuesday. In our view, they are very unlikely to raise cash rate due to the weaker set of Q2 inflation figures. Instead, the question is whether that will be enough for the RBA to remove their #hawkish bias, given the Fed are now officially dovish and risk-off has dominated. For more details, please reach out support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #currency #treasury #hedging #riskmanagement #forecast

AUD/USD is trading just under 0.6500, after briefly spiking to 0.6560 following the release of the weak US ISM survey. Lower US and European equities and falling commodity prices were headwinds for AUD/USD overnight. US #non‑farm payrolls is due on tonight. We summarized some historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap the data, -- The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component dropped to 43.4 from 49.3 last month, hitting the lowest level since June 2020; --The ADP Employment report showed 122K net new jobs, down from 155K last month; In our view, the risk for weak figure exists. The weekly initial #jobless claims rose to 249k last week, adding to the evidence that the US #labour market is loosening. AUD/USD can settle back above 0.6500 if it occurs. Yet, before the #NFP data, as long as the currency pair is below 0.6585, the outlook for AUD/USD should remain weakness while 0.6450 level should be resilient. #ihfx #fx #payment #currency #hedging #treasury #aud #usd #forecast

Mixed economic data is released this morning, -- Australia's Monthly CPI rose by 3.8% YoY, easing from the 4.0% posted in May; -- Australia’s Retail Sales climb 0.5% MoM in June after increasing by 0.6% in May vs. 0.2% expected; -- China's NBS Manufacturing PMI eases to 49.4 in July vs. 49.3 expected; As we expected, the upbeat Australian Retail Sales and Chinese PMIs are ignored. In our view, this #CPI report shows the #inflation is still stubborn while it is not hot enough to push #RBA trigger the next #ratehike. Market has raised expectations that the interest rates will be unchanged at next policy meeting (next week). As a result, AUD/USD breaches 0.6500 to hit three-month lows. However, the downside might be limited as the USD faces challenges ahead of the #Fed upcoming interest rate decision. Signs of cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions in US are further fueling expectations of multiple #ratecuts by the Fed this year. For more details, please reach out by support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #usd #treasury #hedging #forecast

The AUD/USD remained under pressure near 0.6540. Australian Q2 24 CPI is due on tomorrow, which can influence the market pricing for #interestrate policy change by the #RBA. In our view, despite the expectations of a future #ratehike by the RBA, issues with the local economy and Chinese economic woes persist, preventing any significant upward movement. We keep our opinion that as long as the currency pair is below 0.6585, the outlook for AUD/USD should remain weakness in short term. Fundamentally, #FOMC meeting on Thursday morning and the US #NFP on Friday, should provide some meaningful impetus to the pair. For more details, please reach out by support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #usd #hedging #treasury #forecast

AUD/USD saw a larger decline on Thursday, to land at 0.6550, reverting to the status of being the worst performing #G10 currency. Continual weakness in #China's economy paired with depreciating iron ore prices are major contributors to the AUD's decline. #USD was supported by stronger than expected US Q2 24 #GDP, albeit other second tier data was weaker than expected including a 6.6% fall in durable goods orders in June. US #PCE inflation is due tonight. Given market is fully pricing a 25bp cut by September meeting, a low reading may be not able to shift interest rate expectations for the #FOMC by very much. In our view, 0.6585 is key turning point in short term. The outlook for AUD/USD should remain weakness if the rate is below it. For more details, please reach out support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #currency #payment #hedging #treasury #AUD #forecast

AUD/USD prolongs its retracement slide from the 0.6800 area to test 0.6550. A gloomy outlook for the Chinese economy, along with falling commodity prices and the risk-off impulse, continue to weigh on the Aussie, despite the overnight #USdollar pullback. From the #monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The AUD, has been supported on the back of a hawkish #RBA given the sticky inflation and the positive risk sentiment, while in our view, the strength has waned in the recent weeks. The next key event for the Australian Dollar will be the Australian Q2 #CPI report next week. It may be tough time for #importers given AUD dropped more than 1.7% on July. Should you need any insight for coming FX payment, we are here for help.  support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #currency #hedging #treausry #forecast