Strategic Perspectives

Our new report 'Forging Economic Security and Cohesion in the EU’ is out. It is a plan to reindustrialise Europe and strengthen its energy security. Ahead of next week’s Special European Council on the EU’s 2024-2029 priorities, it highlights the socio-economic benefits of a European Industrial Strategy that delivers a net 90% climate target as the next phase of the Green Deal. Main findings of the report based on data provided by Cambridge Econometrics highlight that a European Industrial Strategy has the potential to: - Reindustrialise Europe, creating 2 million jobs in net-zero industries by 2040, and already 1.6 million by 2035. - Make energy more affordable for companies and citizens by 2035, cutting energy bills for households by two-thirds and reducing electricity prices by 12%. - Strengthen EU's economic security, saving €856 billion in gas, oil and coal imports between 2025 and 2040 and €133 billion in technologies and material imports.  - Invest additional €668 billion over the next 15 years in a European Industrial Strategy. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ea5wMFVM

The #CleanIndustrialDeal is out. It has the potential to be powerful and transformational, making the EU more competitive - if financial flows will be consistent and legal certainty is provided on the 90% target in the climate law. The good, the bad, the ugly in a 🧵 The good: - competitiveness and a 90% trajectory for 2040 go hand in hand, - EU wants to be a #cleantech leader to compete with China and the US. Big success for Teresa Ribera, Stéphane Séjourné and Wopke Hoekstra, reflecting som of our Strategic Perspectives asks (see link to blog in comments). A lot potential also in: - mobilising 100billion for industry decarbonisation, if targeted and filled with new money, - creating lead markets for clean tech and products, if more than a "label", - using public procurement too boost lead markets and products "with European preference", if done early, - the plan to lower energy prices as this is key for business, if the EC now enforces faster #renewables permitting and financing; - Clean Industry and Trade Partnerships, if they are mutually beneficial and not just about access to critical raw materials, promoting EU companies and exports to EU. The bad: - "mobilising" 100bn risks being upcycling of existing funds and relying on national contributions too much. Instead, we need new and additional money that flows to deliver on a 90% climate target by 2040 and to the companies most exposed to competition from China or tariffs from the US. - Delaying the publication of the climate law even further was unnecessary. It could have brought the legal certainty on 90% in line with the Clean Industrial Deal. It allows other G20 countries, especially China, to use the EU as an excuse to drag their feet on their own 2035 plans. The ugly: Investing in #LNG infrastructure abroad is fuelling the EU’s import dependency without a guarantee that it will bring energy prices down. Quite the opposite: financing economies like the US and Qatar at times when European citizens and businesses struggle is economic insanity. For more details, follow the fantastic team: Neil Makaroff, Sara Benedetti Michelangeli, Aymeric KOUAM and Tristan Beucler!

Yesterday’s federal elections in Germany took place amidst shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics. Recent discussions at the #MunichSecurityConference highlighted Europe’s necessity to redefine its security strategy, reducing reliance on the United States. Germany is particularly exposed to possible US tariffs, competition with subsidised Chinese products, and an industrial slowdown linked to high energy prices after the need to replace Russian gas. Germany can address these concerns only through European solutions, and the EU needs an operational German government quickly to strengthen its negotiation power. Election results point to key trends: 🔹 The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained support, but centrist parties maintained stability. 🔹 Surprising gains by the Left signal shifting voter priorities. 🔹 With the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and pro-Russian BSW falling short of the parliamentary threshold, a coalition of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) appears likely.  The expected German chancellor Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democrats (CDU) stated he seeks to form a government by Easter to aim to define joint positions with his European counterparts. Read about the key challenges and strategic opportunities ahead for the new German government in our new blog by Linda Kalcher https://lnkd.in/e-EWmy77

The Clean Industrial Deal, scheduled for publication next Wednesday, can be Europe’s answer to geopolitical turbulence and rising economic security concerns. The European industry faces significant challenges that need to be addressed. High energy prices, insufficient investment in the transformation of energy-intensive industries, dependencies in strategic sectors, and a slowdown in demand all undermine the business case for manufacturing zero-carbon technologies and materials in the EU. Five priorities can turn the Clean Industrial Deal into a holistic industrial strategy for Europe to become a net-zero powerhouse. Read more about these five key aspects in our latest blog by Neil Makaroff and Tristan Beucler👇 https://lnkd.in/ep4bGtAq

Join us on 27th February for an FT webinar exploring how energy security and decarbonisation can align—and whether both can be accelerated.

The European Commission has published its 2025 work programme today. We now have it in black and white: #competitiveness and #climate protection are an integrated growth strategy at the European level. The Commission states clearly that the 90% climate goal for 2040 and the #CleanIndustrialDeal will go hand in hand. Publishing the revision of the European Climate Law with the 2040 target together with the Clean Industrial Deal on 26 February would also allow the EU to *finally* set a timeline for submitting its 2035 climate plan (NDC) to the UN. The official deadline for the submission was on 10 February, was missed by many countries but met by the UK, Brazil, UAE, Canada and others - with mixed quality. This is in stark contrast to President Trump's policies and thus a helpful international sign. In addition, it can help Europe keep up with China's systematic and forward-thinking industrial policy that targets global #cleantech leadership. The success of this approach also depends on the commitment and willingness of the next German government to shape EU policies after the #elections. Without a clear vision and position from Germany, European industrial policy cannot succeed. I made this point also to Lars von Törne in Tagesspiegel: https://lnkd.in/efCtCxKk

Oggi su Avvenire qualche mio commento sugli effetti che la rielezione di Donald Trump può avere sulla competitività europea tra miti e realtà. Alcuni pensieri a seguire: - Scena globale: il disimpegno dagli obblighi derivanti dall’Accordo di Parigi aprirà la strada alla Cina e all'Europa per una maggiore quota di mercato di cleantech. - Sul fronte domestico, sebbene la dichiarata volontà di Trump di incentivare le fonti fossili, i livelli di produzione di petrolio negli Stati Uniti hanno già raggiunto apici mai toccati prima sotto l’Amministrazione Biden, con picchi di 13, 6 milioni di barili prodotti al giorno. - Futuro dell'Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): le condizioni per ottenere sussidi per i veicoli elettrici saranno rese più difficili, ma considerando gli oltre 369 milioni di dollari già investiti in soluzioni ‘green’ nel Paese, e molti in aree guidate dai Repubblicani, difficile pensare a un'inversione di rotta massiccia - Impatto della spinta all’Oil & Gas: nonostante la retorica, l’effettiva portata di futuri investimenti resta al vaglio del tempo e della volontà dei giganti del settore energetico. (Si veda la firma dell'ordine esecutivo per incoraggiare lo sviluppo di nuove fonti fossili in Alaska e il successivo bando per l’appalto a cui nessuno ha risposto positivamente). - Gas Naturale Liquefatto: Dal 2023 gli Stati Uniti sono il primo fornitore per l’Unione Europea, tendenza confermata anche nella prima metà del 2024, con una percentuale di forniture di GNL americano che ha continuato ad attestarsi intorno al 47% dell’import totale dell’UE contro un 18,7% ancora proveniente dalla Russia. - Le stime di crescita della capacità di produzione di GNL fornite dall’International Energy Agency (IEA) indicano un aumento di capacità globale di GNL del 47% entro il 2030, con gli USA in vetta alla classifica in termini di aumento dell’offerta – insieme al Qatar - esponendo l’Europa a una grande vulnerabilità energetica Che opportunità per l'Europa per rimanere competitiva e rilanciare l'industria? 1️⃣ Fronte domestico: l’Unione Europea può diventare un hub per la manifattura di cleantech a partire dal Clean Industrial Deal: la revisione delle regole in materia di appalti pubblici può generare fino a 86 miliardi di euro all’anno da far confluire nelle casse europee supportando prodotti innovativi, sostenibili e una maggiore circolarità dell’economia. 2️⃣ Fronte esterno: la creazione delle cosiddette Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships (CTIPs), il lancio del Global Energy Transitions Forum (GETF) e la revisione del Global Gateway possono guidare i partenariati strategici europei.

🇵🇱 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 Heat pumps in Poland. Clean energy in Spain. Batteries in France. Across the continent, clean industries are taking root, proving that the path to net-zero isn’t just an environmental imperative — it’s an economic opportunity. In her Cipher News Voices article, Linda Kalcher, executive director of Strategic Perspectives, dives into the power of cleantech hubs and how a unified European Industrial Strategy could unlock millions of jobs, slash fossil fuel dependence, and cement Europe’s global competitiveness. Read more here: https://nt-z.ro/4jye8O3

The new EU flagship framing for the next 5 years is a compass for #competitiveness. This is a first step towards turning the EU in an even more appealing and innovative business location. Commission President von der Leyen emphasises "speed and unity" being key. Somethings is wrong if #cleantech sectors claim they don't have a bussiness case in the EU! Our Strategic Perspectives report showed in autumn that EU companies risk falling behind #China in important future technologies - the struggling wind and the automotive industries are the most prominent examples. The biggest task for the compass will be to strengthen value creation in Europe, and this requires both measures and #investments. However, the Commission's proposal falls far short: many companies cannot wait until the next EU budget and the capital market union mobilise funds. The close link between the 90% climate target and competitiveness leaves no doubt that Commission President von der Leyen, Executive Vicepresidents Ribera and Séjourné do not want to leave the future cleantech markets to China. Over the last days, I had a few opportunities to set out how this works: ➡️ In a panel debate organised by Polish state secretary Krzysztof (Chris) Bolesta, debating with Marcin Korolec and state secretary Ignacy Niemczycki. ➡️ In my OpEd in Cipher news: https://lnkd.in/eQ8tKXDr ➡️ In the Handelsblatt commenting on a piece by Olga Scheer: https://lnkd.in/eakkxEb6 All based on our reports from spring last year: https://lnkd.in/e8v3j7h4 https://lnkd.in/ei_HEh5p

Today, the European Commission will publish its #CompetitivenessCompass, a crucial tool to chart the European Union’s path forward in an increasingly volatile global landscape. With this framework, the EU leadership has the opportunity to provide actionable guidelines for Europe to improve its geopolitical position, strengthen its resilience, and secure a prosperous, #netzero future. The Compass has the opportunity to address four interconnected areas: ▶️ Economic security: Electrify Europe with renewables and build resilient supply chains. ▶️ Strong industries: Lead in net-zero innovation and invest in strategic industries like batteries, solar panels, and green steel. ▶️ Global partnerships: Diversify supply chains and create opportunities for EU neighbours. ▶️ Cohesion: Make net-zero technologies accessible to all households and regions. The Competitiveness Compass can turn Europe’s challenges into opportunities, fostering a more cohesive, competitive, and resilient Union. Find more insights on this topic here 🔽 https://lnkd.in/gJX_dgVw