🚀 Exciting Updates in the Coffee Market! ☕️ Arabica prices have surged to their highest point in 25 months, marking a remarkable turnaround in just one month. Previously trading below 180 cents, the July contract saw a staggering 6.5-cent increase on Thursday morning, catching industry buyers off guard and putting pressure on the financial standing of trade houses. With system funds bolstering their long positions, the pace of physical business has slowed as roasters reevaluate margin requirements and traders weigh heightened risks at origin. While some anticipate a potential pause in the rally post-FND (First Notice Day), increased sell-side liquidity could prompt liquidation from speculative longs. The chart reflects a bullish outlook, with support levels at 229.55, 219.75, and 211.85, and resistance levels at 245.40, 250.00, and 260.45. Meanwhile, the robusta market continues its tight trajectory, reaching unprecedented highs. Three consecutive years of robusta deficits have depleted global stocks, exacerbated by dry weather in Vietnam threatening future supply. Except for conilon, differentials are at historical peaks. While the solution to the robusta deficit lies in blend incorporation and shifting consumer demand towards arabica, the transition isn't happening swiftly enough. The chart remains bullish amidst all-time highs. In terms of certified stocks, ICE arabica fell to 635k bags, contrasting with robusta certified stocks reaching 3,544 lots. Brazil's coffee market paints a dynamic picture: Local Market: Prices for arabicas surged within the range of 1,300 – 1,500 R$, spanning various quality grades from good cup to extra fine cup. Conilons hit record prices, surpassing 1200 R$/bag, while low-quality arabicas for local consumption traded approximately 100 R$ under conilon rates. Robust volumes for arabica new crop forward deliveries were observed throughout the week, prompting shippers to adjust their differentials. April shipments show robust activity, though the local industry remains cautious with its purchasing. Origin stocks are dwindling, but new crop conilons have begun to arrive. Weather: Favorable conditions persist. Economy / Politics: The USDBRL broke out of its previous range, nearing 5.30 due to a robust dollar and heightened macroeconomic risks. External Market: Reports indicate significant trade volumes in both Conilon and Arabica. Exciting times lie ahead in the coffee industry as markets react to evolving dynamics and shifting demands. Stay tuned for more updates! 📈 #CoffeeMarket #IndustryInsights #GlobalTrade Source: Volcafe Coffee Market Overview
LHM Trading Co.
Atividades de consultoria em gestão empresarial
Espírito Santo do Pinhal, SP 196 seguidores
Connecting people who is passionated by coffee
Sobre nós
Welcome to LHM Trading Co., your premier destination for a delightful and enriching coffee journey. As a distinguished coffee brokerage company, we pride ourselves on providing unparalleled access to a world of exceptional coffee beans and fostering meaningful connections between coffee connoisseurs and passionate growers.
- Setor
- Atividades de consultoria em gestão empresarial
- Tamanho da empresa
- 1 funcionário
- Sede
- Espírito Santo do Pinhal, SP
- Tipo
- Autônomo
- Fundada em
- 2022
- Especializações
- Coffee, Green Coffee, Café, Brazil e Trading
Localidades
-
Principal
Espírito Santo do Pinhal, SP 13990-000, BR
Funcionários da LHM Trading Co.
Atualizações
-
🌟 Coffee Market Update 🌟 Another robust week for coffee enthusiasts! 🚀 Robusta soared to new heights, igniting a surge in arabica prices, surpassing the $2/lb mark in NY. The bullish momentum, fueled by a positive macro outlook and a broader uptrend in commodities, is underscored by the persistent tightness in Robusta supply. Despite record futures prices, origins are grappling to meet demand, keeping differentials stubbornly high. In Brazil, arabica regions experienced normal to above-normal rainfall, but early fruit drop from blossoming trees hints at potential quality concerns for the upcoming 2024-25 season. 📈 ICE arabica certified stocks climbed to 628,217 bags, while robusta certs dwindled to 3094 lots. Arabica broke through multiple resistance levels, reaching its highest point in 18 months. The formerly range-bound market erupted into volatility as system buy programs bolstered long positions. Although the rally caught many roasters off guard, reluctance to chase prices prevailed. The enduring robusta deficits over the past three years have redirected demand towards arabica, painting a bullish picture for the market. Key Levels: Support: 196.00, 189.25, 178.30 Resistance: 211.35, 219.40, 242.95 Brazil Insights: 🇧🇷 Local Market: Spiraling dynamics push prices upward, with conilon trading at R$ 1050. Arabica producers targeted R$ 1100, achieved substantial sales, and pushed price ideas to R$ 1200. Exporters secured coverage, reducing nearby shorts. Robust arabica trading and declining replacement differentials signal favorable conditions for Brazilian farmers, who are locking in forward businesses for 2024-25. March witnessed record-high shipments of around 3.4 million bags, further depleting carry-out stocks, though still higher than historical lows. 🌦️ Weather: Favorable conditions persist, with minor concerns about forecasted showers impacting drying grounds. 🌍 External Market: FOB demand remains sluggish. Exciting times ahead in the coffee market! ☕ Let's stay tuned for more updates. #CoffeeMarket #Commodities #BrazilCoffee #Arabica #Robusta #CoffeeTrade
-
-
Coffee Market Overview: A Look at Current Trends and Predictions As we navigate through the first quarter, the coffee market has shown a steady pattern, with the price oscillating between support at $179.35 and resistance at $190. Despite these fluctuations, a breakout has yet to occur. The convergence of the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages—within a mere 3.5 cents—suggests a neutral stance, hinting at a potential significant move on the horizon. Key Levels to Watch: Support: $179.35, $177.50, $173.10 Resistance: $188.40, $194.75, $200.75 The Arabica market remains in a range-bound state, with rising ICE exchange certified stocks and stable to weaker front spreads applying pressure. However, a shift in demand from robusta to lower quality arabica offers some support, alongside the robusta market’s spillover strength. In contrast, Robusta futures have performed better due to tight fundamentals—demand is outstripping supply, and differentials in Asia are soaring due to limited availability. Brazil’s Coffee Outlook: Harvest: Cooxupe forecasts that Brazil’s arabica coffee harvest will commence in about a month. Current weather predictions indicate light rains in the coffee regions, coupled with unusually high temperatures for this season. Stocks: Certified arabica stocks have increased to 561k bags, while pending gradings have decreased to 102k bags. Conversely, robusta exchange certified stocks have dropped to 2,928 lots. Local Market Dynamics: Arabica Recovery: Arabica futures have seen a recovery from recent lows, with a weaker BRL earlier in the week (to 5.05) leading to increased trading volumes and higher differentials week-over-week. Price Comparisons: Interestingly, some Brazilian arabica coffees are now priced lower than Asian robustas. The trade of fine cup arabica at R$1,100 narrows the gap further between arabica and robusta prices. Exports & Profits: High export volumes, particularly of conilons, continue, with conilon trading at R$925. Farmers are seeing considerable profits and a favorable average price for their remaining uncommitted volumes. Weather Concerns: The anticipated late rain event raises concerns about potential quality issues, as no Arabica is yet on the ground. Stay tuned for more updates as we approach Brazil’s harvest season and monitor the evolving market dynamics.
-
-
🌟 Coffee Market Update 🌟 Reflecting on the past week in the coffee market, it's been a period of calm with Brazil and Vietnam, the leading coffee-producing nations, observing holidays for Carnaval and the Lunar New Year respectively. Arabica coffee futures saw marginal declines, influenced by positive long-term forecasts for Brazilian rainfall and an uptick in ICE certified arabica stocks, surpassing 300k bags. However, challenges persisted as Cecafe reported delays in 85% of Brazil’s coffee shipments, the highest recorded delay rate, attributed to congestion and space constraints at port terminals. Despite these hurdles, Brazil's green coffee exports surged by 45.4% year-on-year in January to 3.67 million bags. Meanwhile, ICE Arabica experienced attempted rallies influenced by various factors, although the market retraced slightly by the end of the week, potentially prompting further spec selling. As we look ahead, support levels are identified at 182.00, 181.50, and 173.10, while resistance levels stand at 194.05, 198.9, and 200.75. In Brazil, the local market saw a slow week due to carnival festivities, with some rainfall noted across coffee-growing regions, offering hope for the weeks ahead. Despite a bullish week for the USD, the BRL/USD exchange rate reached 4.95, indicating resilience in the Brazilian economy. Externally, Cecafe released complete export figures for January 2024, totaling 40.4 million bags over the past twelve months. Shippers are working diligently to clear the backlog of January shipments, with roaster demand remaining steady amidst sideways differentials. Stay tuned for further updates as we navigate the dynamic landscape of the coffee market together! ☕️📈 #CoffeeMarket #BrazilCoffee #Arabica #LinkedInPost