Adamas Intelligence

📈 If we drill down on the global #EV market’s key regions we can see that, frankly, the so-called shift to #PHEVs is to-date primarily a theme of the Chinese market and is only just starting in Europe and North America. However, with China’s oversized share of the global EV market, the strong sales growth of PHEVs underway in China, as shown below, is echoed at the global level, despite still not yet being a prominent trend in North America and Europe today, albeit Adamas Intelligence believes the trend is coming. Read more about the ongoing shift to PHEVs and its implications for #rareearth permanent magnet demand. 💡 More info: https://lnkd.in/ePHxmr6i

But in the short term, the Canadian [critical minerals] sector is still too small to be a decisive bargaining chip in imminent tariff talks, said Frik Els, a mining sector specialist at Adamas Intelligence, a research house. “Critical minerals is certainly one card Canada can play in these negotiations — but it is not a trump card, as some have been suggesting” due to the fact that Canada hasn’t yet developed most of its potential critical minerals deposits, Els told Canada’s National Observer. “Canada’s volumes in mining these key energy transition materials are currently far too small,” he said. “We still have limited exports of lithium to the U.S., for example, and the economics of lithium, nickel, and cobalt mining aren’t there yet.” https://lnkd.in/gsQCZe4X

🧲 ICYMI - What might Trump 2.0 mean for #rareearth magnet demand in the US? Since being elected for a second term, there has been a flurry of speculation about the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration on US technology, energy and resource sectors. Taking heed of Trump’s past statements, actions and leadership style, the Adamas Intelligence research team laid out the likely implications of Trump 2.0 on five of the nation’s most important NdFeB end-use segments: EVs, wind, advanced air mobility, robotics and defense. 🚘 EVs: Neutral outlook While Trump 2.0 policies are expected to be less favorable to the EV industry, we believe there are a number of organic factors poised to come into play in 2025 (e.g., Tesla low-priced EV, new PHEV models, possible support for autonomous driving) that may help revive the US EV market in the near-term with or without direct support. 🌪 Wind: Negative outlook Overall, with the tiny US wind market already in the doldrums following the pandemic and an expectedly unsupportive US administration incoming, we anticipate the impact of Trump 2.0 will be negative for the nation’s wind industry and associated NdFeB magnet demand. 🚁 Advanced air mobility: Positive outlook After falling so far behind China on EVs, Trump views advanced air mobility as a market that the US can lead in. Coupling this with Trump’s affinity for expediting decisions and circumnavigating regulatory hurdles and we see strong tailwinds forming behind the US advanced air mobility sector and associated NdFeB magnet demand. 🤖 Robotics: Positive outlook Similarly, with the US falling years behind China on EVs and battery technology, we believe that the Trump 2.0 administration will view the burgeoning robotics sector as another avenue that (like advanced air mobility) the US can take an early lead in. Proof that fate loves irony: Just this week, the US Secret Service confirmed that robot security dogs have been deployed at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, to guard the President-elect. 💪 Defense: Positive outlook In our view, Trump sees himself as doveish with respect to injecting the US into armed conflict, but at the same time places importance on the nation’s offensive strength and projections thereof. Couple this mindset with expected Trump 2.0 support for advanced air mobility and robotics sectors (which both have vast potential applications in defense) and we see huge potential for NdFeB demand growth from what has historically been a niche demand segment. ⚖ Overall: Positive outlook Overall, we see positive catalysts (e.g., support for robotics, advanced air mobility and defense) far outweighing the negatives as Trump 2.0 comes into office early next year. #EVs #wind #eVTOL #robotics #defense 💡 Full insight: https://lnkd.in/dB5i2Pik

💡 Rare earth elements aren't rare, informed intelligence is. If your intelligence provider is still talking about EVs, wind and legacy applications, they're doing your organization a disservice. As detailed in our latest Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040 report, #robotics and #AAM are the new frontiers of rare earths demand. As the industry's go-to reference for rare earths and magnet market intelligence for nearly a decade, you'll find analysis and thought leadership in this report not discussed anywhere else. Time and time again, we've demonstrated that we're years ahead of the alternatives. Contact Adamas Intelligence for more information about its latest annual report and other industry leading services. 📑 Annual report: https://lnkd.in/driq6wpJ 💡 Other rare earth services: https://lnkd.in/g4X-ExiK #rareearths #thougtleadership #intelligence

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📊 How is the shift to PHEVs impacting demand for NdFeB magnets? 2024 saw a flurry of headlines shining light on the so-called shift to hybrids as battery electric vehicle sales growth has started to wane in some key markets and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sales growth has started to accelerate. This topic was a major theme at Rare Earth Mines, Magnets & Motors 2024 in September and was the focus of a presentation Adamas Intelligence delivered during the ‘Sizing Up the Elephants in the Room’ segment of the event. In the near-term, the shift to hybrids is likely negative news if you’re an automaker, a battery maker or supplier of battery raw materials, but for suppliers of #NdFeB magnets and the rare earth elements they contain, the rise of plug-ins is already proving to be a net-positive for demand. 💡 Full exclusive: https://lnkd.in/ePHxmr6i #electricvehicles #hybrids #motors #magnets #rareearths

♻ In addition to greater use of cerium, lanthanum, gadolinium and holmium in NdFeB magnets to help ration magnet rare earth oxide supplies, a greater global effort to recover and recycle NdFeB magnets from end-of-life devices can also play a meaningful role in helping to satisfy demand in the years ahead. 💡 Full insight: https://lnkd.in/g4S9DKsw Cyclic Materials Mkango Resources Ltd. HyProMag Ltd Ionic Technologies Noveon Magnetics Inc. Rare Earth Salts REEcycle Heraeus CARESTER Alta Resource Technologies

📈 CHART: EV Battery Capacity Deployment Growth by Region 🔋 During the first 10 months of 2024, 674.6 GWh of battery capacity were deployed onto roads globally in all newly sold passenger EVs (including plug-in, range extender and conventional hybrids) combined, up 24% over January through October of the year prior.   Despite contributing a full 62% of the global total in GWh terms, Asia Pacific added fresh capacity at a noticeably faster rate than the Americas and Europe. Specifically, EV buyers in the Asia Pacific region rolled 419.9 GWh of battery power onto the region’s roads, a jump of 33% year on year. By comparison, European drivers (including the UK, Russia and non-EU states) added 129.5 GWh (+3%) while the Americas added 113.9 GWh (+20%). 📊 Europe back in growth territory Looking at the most recent month for which detailed data exists, growth in Europe has improved from a slump during the summer months – October GWh deployment was up 11% compared to the same month last year. In the Americas, new EV buyers steered 20% more power hours onto the region’s roads during the same period. In Asia Pacific, where China accounts for 91% of the market in GWh terms, a record 55.2 GWh were deployed onto roads in October alone, 41% more than the same month last year. 🗓️ At the current pace, the 2024 calendar year could see the total combined battery capacity of EVs sold hit a record of more than 860 GWh deployed, or nearly 170 GWh more than over the course of 2023. It’s worth remembering just how young the global electric car market still is. In the 2017 calendar year, the combined battery capacity of all EVs sold globally totaled just 38.5 GWh. Today, the Chinese market alone exceeds that number monthly. China's EV buyers will likely add more power hours to the country’s roads in 2024 than the entire world combined just two short years ago. 💡 Adamas Inside: https://lnkd.in/ggf2GfbY

📊 CHART: Nickel consumption by automaker (top 20) According to data from the Adamas Intelligence EV Battery Intel Platform, through the first 10 months of this year a total of 255.8kt of #nickel were deployed onto roads in the batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs worldwide, an 11% increase compared to 2023. 🥇 Tesla led the pack with 41.3kt of nickel used in its EV batteries from January through October, a 7% decline from the same period in 2023. 🥈 Volkswagen claimed a distant second spot with 28.1kt of nickel used in its batteries, up less than 1% compared to the first 10 months of 2023, edging out Toyota which saw a combined 26.7kt of nickel contained in its EVs, a 14% rise. In fourth, Geely packs hitting roads from Jan – Oct 2024 contained a total of 19.3kt of nickel, a 28% jump over the same months of 2023 making it the second fastest growing automaker in the top 10 after General Motors, which increased nickel usage by 82% to 9.3kt. 🔋 GM’s nickel boom has a lot to do with its main supplier Ultium Cells, a joint venture with LG Energy Solution, that manufactures NCMA batteries fitted to the Cadillac Lyriq, the massive GMC Hummer SUV, the full-size Chevy Silverado pickup, and Blazer SUV, a mid-market offering introduced for the 2024 model year with some success. GM announced in October it is taking a step back from the Ultium brand and also sold its stake in a Michigan battery plant back to LGES. GM is overhauling its battery strategy under a new battery boss, who joined Detroit from Tesla, and is looking to move to LFP cells for certain future models. Full insight: https://lnkd.in/gUVpMzQS

#Lithium market could see modest recovery in 2025 according to Adamas analyst Christopher Williams. "We also note a generous proportion of swing capacity has or will be sidelined, theoretically capping any price rallies. Idled capacity in Australia includes Finniss, Mt. Cattlin, Ngungaju, Bald Hill and Wodgina Train 3. In China there is vast lepidolite capacity, while Zimbabwe offers capacity at Sabi Star, Bikita and Arcadia. As we have observed in past cycles, restart economics typically require a sustained period of supportive prices. In the current market, this is realistically above $15-20/kg ($15,000 to $20,000 per tonne) lithium carbonate. In our view, by the time prices are consistently at these levels, sufficient structural deficits will have emerged, effectively nullifying the price dampening effects of restarts. In summary, we see the lithium market in 2025 continuing to adjust supply through cuts, delays to project development, stockpiling and other measures, while strong demand brings modest price relief." The full article first appeared in the December issue of The Northern Miner print and digital editions. Read full article at MINING.com: https://lnkd.in/g8eRuyAq