Navius Research, Inc

New Navius Research Blog: are lower BC LCFS prices here to stay? We recommend caution in relying on historic prices for forward looking planning, as the published transactions are not always a good indicator of future compliance costs. Read the new blog by Sam Harrison here: https://lnkd.in/g6H7tPGQ

4 years 🎉 Happy Work Anniversary Aurora Marstokk! Thank you for being such a valuable, hardworking member of our team!

We're #hiring an Office Manager! If you or someone in your network is looking for an engaging part-time role, with an incredible team: Apply or share this post today.

4 years 🎉 Happy Work Anniversary Franziska Foerg! Thank you for your dedication and hard work. Your contributions are invaluable and your positive, driven attitude makes you a great member of our team.

Here are some interesting insights from the recent Clean Fuel Regulations compliance report: 1) There was a wide spread in prices paid for CFR credits, ranging from $7-$300/credit in 2023 (and that’s excluding transfers for a price of zero or less than $1/credit). 2) Most credits were produced through supply of liquid biofuels (compliance category 2), mostly ethanol, followed by HDRD and a category aggregating other low-carbon intensity fuels (including biodiesel). 3) In 2023, ~50% of ethanol credits were produced domestically, while most renewable diesel and “other low-carbon intensity fuels” credits came from fuel imports. 4) Almost all category 3 credits and ~12% of category 2 credits were created using default carbon intensity (CI) values instead of the calculated CI method or LCA CI method (using the government’s Fuel Life Cycle Assessment Model). 5) We expect using the calculated/LCA method would result in lower CIs and, as a result, a larger supply of credits generated for the same abatement action. We expect to see this change in CI methods in future CFR compliance, which could put downward pressure on the credit price. Report can be viewed here: https://lnkd.in/g7bYZKFc

The first Clean Fuel Regulations compliance report has been released – even we are surprised by how closely 2023 credit prices are aligned with Navius’ latest CFR market outlook. Our forecasted 2023 price was $115/tCO2e and the reported average price was $127/t! We release a CFR market outlook quarterly, with credit prices forecasted out to 2031. Our latest (Q3) outlook came out on Friday! See https://lnkd.in/gCrUc3dv for more information. #gTech #CleanFuelRegulations #CFR #creditprices

New report by Clean Prosperity! They address opportunities and challenges for nuclear power in Canada, and outline solutions to the ‘cost’ and ‘certainty’ problems. You can find the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gsNysrp2 #CleanProsperity #netzero #nuclearenergy #climatepolicy

Our recent study finds that a cold winter could exacerbate the challenge of building electrification on our electricity grids. This is illustrated using Ontario as an example below, with higher peak demand and a lower load factor in a cold winter scenario. Note that we do not account for how climate change could impact future weather. View our report: https://lnkd.in/gKA79Bkz #buildingelectrification #gTech #IESD #electricityload #NaviusResearch

2 years 🎉 Happy Work Anniversary Douglas Bryan! Your leadership, motivation and reliability make you a great asset to our team. Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication.

Our recent study finds that achieving net zero emissions in Alberta makes the electricity system peak more due to higher building electrification, decreasing the load factor from 0.61 to 0.46. The impact is larger in Alberta because there is currently little electrified space heating. Is there a better way to decarbonize Alberta’s buildings? View our report here: https://lnkd.in/gKA79Bkz #buildingelectrification #NaviusResearch #gTech #IESD #netzero #decarbonization #reduceemissions #electricityload