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Corpay chief market strategist Karl Schamotta calls the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act “one of the worst self-inflicted economic wounds in U.S. history”. He says it hurt American farmers, crushed auto and steel exports, slowed global trade and helped drive down stocks on Wall Street. And he says, the only people who benefited were lobbyists. "That any leader would want to repeat the experience is astonishing.” CBC: What would a trade war actually look like? https://lnkd.in/gkwCFCeB

“The president-elect’s broadside comes after a distinct dimming in the Canadian dollar’s prospects," Corpay chief market strategist Karl Schamotta wrote in a research note. "Elevated household borrowing costs, cool labour markets, lacklustre consumer spending, soft commodity prices, and weak business investment were already pushing the dollar exchange rate towards a four-year low, and a sustained rise in implied volatility could magnify the damage, putting the $1.43 threshold in scope before year-end." However "investors don't expect Trump to follow through." … “The Canadian dollar seems poised for modest reversal to the upside once traders assess the situation from a more nuanced perspective." Yahoo Finance: Trump's tariff threat will keep loonie under pressure in 'new era of trade uncertainty' https://lnkd.in/gREdYy5c

“The gap should continue to widen with the RBNZ set to deliver greater interest rate relief over 2025,” said Peter Dragicevich, a currency strategist at business payments company Corpay. “We believe interest rate spreads and other drivers are pointing to a higher average AUD/NZD level over the next few quarters,” he said. Corpay forecasts the Australian dollar to rise towards $NZ1.13 by mid-2025. It is now at $NZ1.10. It has lifted 2.5 per cent this year. Read the Australian Financial Review article here: https://lnkd.in/ggA7dpUp

"Softer USD. A firmer EUR, stronger JPY, & month-end portfolio rebalancing flows exerted a bit of downward pressure on the USD." Read more from Peter Dragicevich: https://lnkd.in/g2TNv3T9

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with Corpay, joined BNNBloomberg to talk about Canada's economic outlook amid potential risks posed by Trump's tariffs https://lnkd.in/g8TvFyXa

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. More from Karl Schamotta: https://hubs.ly/Q02ZG_wJ0

In its final meeting of 2024 the RBNZ delivered another outsized rate cut with today’s 50bp reduction lowering the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Read more from Peter Dragicevich: https://lnkd.in/g2hP_5Sf

"US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump's announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day." Read more from Peter Dragicevich: https://lnkd.in/gXMqzD7h

“We’re seeing the use of economic warfare instruments to achieve geopolitical goals,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. “At one point markets were not taking Trump seriously or literally, and we’re beginning to transition out of that.” Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariff Threats Propel Dollar as Traders Brace for Swings https://lnkd.in/gNEUXJyR