Georgia has suspended its dialogue with the European Union (EU), Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated on November 28. Three days later he went into reverse, telling the BBC that: “We have no suspended anything related to European integration. It’s just a lie.”
Georgian protesters believe Kobakhidze did speak the truth in his initial statement, and that he was simply revealing the government’s long-cherished ambition to end the country’s efforts at European integration and draw closer to Russia. Protests and clashes sparked by his words continued on the streets of Tbilisi and other cities for a sixth consecutive night on December 3. Demonstrators so far seem absolutely determined to force a change of policy.
The ostensible trigger for events was a European Parliament resolution refusing to recognize the contested results of October’s parliamentary elections. The non-binding resolution called on the European Commission to impose sanctions against Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder Bizana Ivanishvili (who terms the West “the party of war”), Prime Minister Kobakhidze, Chairman of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili, Mayor of Tbilisi Kakha Kaladze, former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and others from the governing elite.
Georgian Dream’s behavior has been well received in Moscow. Russian media reported that: “Russia has defeated the EU on its field. A key decision has been made.” Putin too praised the governing party, recalling the twists and turns of the adoption of repressive legislation on foreign agents, the so-called Russia law, in the spring: “I was simply amazed at their courage and character, which they showed to defend their point of view,” he said.
The government’s opponents were equally quick off the mark following the EU talks suspension. President Salome Zourabichvili, the country’s outgoing President, swiftly gathered the main opposition parties, called the Georgian Dream government illegitimate, and described the decision to suspend EU integration efforts as a constitutional coup. Opinion polling consistently shows more than 80% of Georgians seek EU membership.
As riot police began deploying in the center of Tbilisi, the President walked toward a wall of riot shields held by balaclava wearing policemen to ask: “Do you serve Russia or Georgia? Who did you swear an oath to?”
Later that night, the authorities ordered the police to use brutal methods. Hundreds of demonstrators and journalists were injured.
The results of Kobakhidze’s decision continue to reverberate, with civil servants and major employers declaring their opposition and revealing serious fissures within the state’s governing machinery. From November 28, thousands of employees of various state institutions, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Education, the Justice and Justice System, employees of the parliamentary administration, the government, the capital’s City Hall, the National Bank and others rejected the suspension of EU talks. At least five emissaries, including the ambassador to the United States and a Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister resigned.
Moreover, for the first time, large private companies, including the largest banks and communications companies, medical and cultural institutions, universities and schools, openly spoke out against the authorities.
Some clergymen of the Georgian Orthodox Church also condemned the anti-European decision and the subsequent repression against protesters. Archbishop Zenon Iarajuli addressed an open letter to the Patriarch of Georgia which called on him to: “Please stand against the attempt to imprison the Georgian nation, to abolish the statehood of Georgia, and to carry out a constitutional coup.” The church, which habitually backs the government, instead called on both sides to exercise restraint.
The strength of the societal backlash has surprised many beyond the confines of the ruling party. Despite evidence of vote-rigging, the opposition had struggled to martial a wave of protests against the vote. That seemed to emboldened the authorities. Perhaps it believed that this was its moment to ditch the EU process, even though it only recently told voters that it still wanted closer ties with Brussels.
On November 27, the day before the anti-EU decision, the Chairman of the Georgian Parliament Shalva Papuashvili devoted an interview to explaining why the EU would not benefit the country, stating that membership would force Georgia to introduce a visa regime with the countries of the former USSR and so destroy the country’s economy.
The West’s response to date has been predictable. The new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas condemned the government’s approach including the use of violence against demonstrators and added: “This will have direct consequences from the EU side.” On November 30, the US announced the suspension of its strategic partnership with Georgia.
But the government will have priced-in these reactions and they’re unlikely to make any difference to its calculations. Only sanctions — like those applied on December 2 by the Baltic states — will have any effect.
Georgian Dream trusts that matters will improve with the arrival of a new Trump administration in January.
Meanwhile, it continues to describe any action or threat from the West as minor and insists it will have no real effect.
At this stage, the great mass of Georgians are pro-European and wish their country to have warm relations with the EU which they see as the promise of a better future. One thing they absolutely do not want is to be dragged back, kicking and screaming, into the darkness of so-called Russian world.
Dr. Beka Chedia is a researcher and professor of political science from Tbilisi, Georgia. He is a Tbilisi-based country expert, political analyst, and contributor to several leading think tanks and research centers in Europe and the US.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
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