Alina Polyakova
Hello, everyone. Good afternoon, I’m Alina Polyakova. I’m the President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis. It’s really a pleasure to welcome all of you here today for I think what’s going to be a very interesting and timely conversation with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. We’re so honored to have you with us today.
Boris Johnson
Great to be here. Thank you very much. I love the way you call me Prime Minister. It’s a courtesy that, title that does not exist in the United Kingdom or UK media here.
Alina Polyakova
Mr. Johnson, welcome. It’s great to have you
Boris Johnson
No I like it America, it’s great.
Alina Polyakova
Well, I think all of you know, former Prime Minister Johnson, who served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and Foreign Secretary prior to that. As well as, as well as Mayor of London prior to that. And also the author of now 11 books, including a fantastic book on Churchill, and which I think is so relevant and timely for the current era. And I know we’ll talk about that today. So, Prime Minister, let’s get into it. Without, without further ado. You have been a advocate for Ukraine. Yes. And during your leadership, your premiership, the UK was the first country to deliver lethal aid to Ukraine, even prior to the full scale Russian invasion, and to deliver artillery systems and weapons.
Boris Johnson
First European country.
Alina Polyakova
First European country. That’s correct. Can you talk a little bit more about why you supported Ukraine at that time? And why you continue now, as a private citizen, to advocate for Western support for Ukraine? Why is it so important to you,
Boris Johnson
I supported Ukraine, just for the obvious reason that it was morally abominable, that an innocent European country was being attacked and civilians were being murdered in large numbers. And there was an act of unwarranted aggression on a scale we hadn’t seen for eight years. Putin unleashed the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War. So obviously, I was in supporting Ukraine for moral reasons, for legal reasons, for humanitarian reasons. But I also, and those are the primary reasons, but I would say that from the point of view of the of the United States and the the UK, there are also enormously powerful strategic reasons for wanting to support the Ukraine. And they are that, number one, if Ukraine falls then you have the risk of further Putin revanchism all around the periphery of the of the former Soviet Union. He won’t stop there. You saw his extremely creepy interview with Fox, with it wasn’t Fox News. I’m sorry. Forgive me. I got it. Right. It was some guy who used to be on Fox News. You saw that thing where he seemed to think that Poland was responsible for the outbreak of the of the Second World War, and didn’t seem to understand what the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was, was all. You you saw what he had to to say it is it is chilling. Number two, strategically, if you want to prevent that kind of thing, if you want to guarantee the security of the Euro-Atlantic area. If you want to save American tax dollars, potentially trillions of tax dollars in decades to come trying to undo the damage of a future such aggression, then Ukraine, supporting Ukraine, is immensely cost efficient. It’s you’ve got you haven’t got any American boots on the ground at all. And you are fighting for freedom. And most importantly, perhaps from a from a US strategic point of view, you’re sending a message to Beijing, that aggression and the changing of borders by force is not going to be tolerated, it is not easy, and is likely to end in disaster. And these are very powerful strategic considerations. I would also say there are other points you could make as well. I think that the, you know, the supplemental budget that is that is you know, I think everybody mostly I’m praying is going to be approved. And you know, I should preface all this by saying how deeply I respect what the US has done, and how how indebted, I believe that the world is once again, to the people of the United States of America for the support that they they have given. And it’s been fantastic. And it’s been transformative for Ukraine. But unfortunately, the situation is grim. And the delay is terrible right now. This this, if, if we mean what we say about helping them, and if we mean what we say about, you know, doing it for, helping them for as long as it takes whatever the matter is, then we have to get that supplemental budget approved.
Alina Polyakova
Absolutely. Well, let’s, let’s talk about what’s happening today in Ukraine. You said the situation is-
Boris Johnson
Most of the money. Sorry, just a final thought from the American point of view, most of the money, whatever that is 60 billion or whatever the whatever the whatever the expenditure is, is, of course, going to go into the U. S. economy. It’s going to drive jobs and growth here in the United States. Don’t forget that elementary point as well.
Alina Polyakova
Well, you’re absolutely right. I wish that our Congress had renamed the Ukraine Supplemental the US Defense Investment Act, because that’s actually what it is, it’s going to jumpstart our own defense industrial capacity in a significant way, and we need it. But I want to turn to what’s going on in Ukraine right now. You said the situation is grim. Over the last several days, we have seen a massive uptick in air attacks by the Russian side on Ukraine’s energy grid and civilian targets. And they seem to have be they seem to be having a lot more success. And a lot of that is due to the fact that Ukrainians simply are losing the ability to defend themselves because they don’t have the systems. They don’t have the missiles, and they don’t have enough ammunition. You were just in Ukraine in February to mark the very solemn mark of two years since the start of the full scale invasion. You saw President Zelenskyy and others, what is your sense of the situation on ground and of morale given the situation here on support for Ukraine?
Boris Johnson
My sense is that the morale of the Ukrainian people is obviously fragile, things are things are tough, but they’re determined. And they they’re going to fight for their country. That though I did not get anywhere, any sense of defeatism or any sense that they think that they’re going to lose, they don’t think they’re gonna lose. I tell you what I also find they believe, and this is what’s so important for us. They believe in us. They they really think that we are going to stick with them. And we have to, to vindicate that, that faith. You know, just because of the things we’ve already said. I think it’s worth it’s worth remembering. What would have happened if Putin has succeeded on January the 20-, no February 23, 2022. And you just imagine, imagine good, which is, by the way, what all my defense intelligence people were saying was going to happen. They said it would be over, in days. And it would have been a dark ages for for Ukraine, and a kind of a world in which there was forced Russification in which journalists were were shot. Politicians and you know, poisoned or, or taken to the, to the Gulag as they are in in Russia now. Just imagine what would have happened to Ukraine, and what the Ukrainians have achieved in fighting that off with the help of US weaponry, has been astonishing. And they’ve recaptured more than 50% of the land that Putin originated. We must never forget what they’ve achieved, right? Because we sometimes just listen to this endless barrage of terrible news. They’ve incapacitated about 40% of, of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. I don’t have the exact numbers. It’s a huge amount. They’ve killed a huge number of Russian soldiers. And they’ve shown themselves to be a really, really formidable fighting force. But, you know, every time I go and see them, it’s this it’s the same and it was no different in Kyiv this time. They are just praying for that kit. And it is frankly, horrendous that they are being forced to fight without the wherewithal to protect themselves from from from Russian munitions and and without, so they need the the, they need the the air defenses to protect their cities and their infrastructure which are now taking a real hammering. And more of the, as you say, more of the of the missiles, the Russian missiles are now getting through. And they need, they need the shells. They need they need artillery to, to give their troops covering to, to fight back. And the casualties are now very severe. And, you know, I just do not understand why we in the West for this relatively trivial outlay can’t just make these elementary commitments and give them a give them what they need. Remember, Ronald Reagan basically won the Cold War by outspending the Soviet Union on on defense, we had the opp- and Putin is now ramping up his his production of weapon- we have the opportunity if we if we get our act together, to ramp up our production of military equipment for Ukraine and turn this thing around. Because believe me, they can win. They’ve shown that they can win. I think they will win, but they just need they need the kit. And that’s their that’s their feeling that comes through again and again. Again, again, they are there’s no deal they can see they can do with Putin. I mean, nobody, nobody comes up to me furtively and says, Oh, but you know, by the way, we could trade this and this and let’s, let’s cut a deal a land for peace deal. Nobody suggests that. It’s no,t they I think any Ukrainian politician who tried to do it would be in a very difficult position.
Alina Polyakova
Mr. Prime Minisiter let me follow through on that line of thought and then stick with Ukraine for a second. What do you say to those who say, look, let’s look reality in the eyes. The Russians concede this war forever, they don’t care how many Russians die, hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions. They ramped up their war economy production there can out produce us an ammunition right now, which is really shocking. If you think about it.
Boris Johnson
But they can’t I mean, they, you know, they, they it looks as though they can at the moment, but our economies are, what 25, 30 times the size of Russia. It’s ridiculous.
Alina Polyakova
So we obviously have the capacity and the potential to defeat the Russians. No question about that. There’s no competition there. But what do you say to those people who say, look, the Russians, this is this is their ‘Forever War’. They’re going to commit anything they can to this. And the Ukrainians are facing a problem with mobilization. They’re simply not as many Ukrainians as there are Russians. And the Ukrainians care about the lives of their citizens in a way that certainly Putin and the Kremlin does not. So what do you say to those people say, look, let’s look at the numbers. How can Ukraine win? Is this a winnable war?
Boris Johnson
Yeah but that but the people who are saying that, Putin and the Kremlin and the Kremlin apologists and the propagandists. That I mean, that is very much their line. And that’s what you will hear on the from, you know, those parts of the Fox News and so on the been infected by this, by this by this line of thinking. It’s demonstrably not the case. Ukraine can and I think, given the right kit will win. And I just let’s, let’s let’s flip that around. The, if Putin has to withdrawal from the bits of Ukraine that he currently occupies, is it rarely, you know, everybody says, oh, it will be a be a disaster for Vladimir Putin, the end. You know, there’ll be there’ll be a putch in the Kremlin, there’ll be, you know, we unforeseeable consequences, the breakup of Russia, blah, blah, fishcakes. You know, really, he has total control over the organs of opinion in, in Russia. He can, he can present almost anything as a, as a conclusion of success for his, his special military operation, you can say that the place was was was purged of Nazis or, or whatever. Or there weren’t any Nazis to begin with, you know. He, there are ways through for Putin. There are ways through for Putin to end this thing, get out, and claim some sort of moral victory. Russian language has been preserved, you know, Ukraine has agreed this, you know, that Russian culture will be, you know, respected, it will so on and so on. All sorts of things that you that he could he could claim. But if, if Putin succeeds, and we aren’t the, the I think that you’re right, Alina, and I think that the risk is that, actually, if we keep delaying, unless we give the Ukrainians what they need, it’s becoming pretty clear that the Russians by combination of attacking cities, attacking infrastructure, and grinding forward, you know they may be able to make a breakthrough. And, you know, the Putin’s ambition is to get Kyiv. He wants to complete this thing. He wants to take, he wants to take control of the whole country. And, you know, I got to say that if that happens, I think it would be an absolute catastrophe for the West, and a catastrophe for America and for any concept of American leadership. I think it would be I think it would be a reverse, bigger than Vietnam, because this would be a big, I won’t say be bigger than Vietnam. I mean, because this would be NATO. This would be NATO. After 80 years, 75 years of success, this would be NATO, that had failed for the first time in a European war. Because NATO has been trying to support Ukraine, NATO countries, would basically have been shown to be too weak, too irresolute. And the message would be, I think, absolutely disastrous. And I really, I really can’t believe that any American president or incoming American president is going to want that to happen on his watch.
Alina Polyakova
So let’s, let’s connect the dots here a little bit. The Prime Minister of Japan was just here in Washington, and he addressed the US Congress, and he mentioned Ukraine nine times.
Boris Johnson
Yeah that’s becasuse he’s, I mean, Fumio Kishida, who I’ve known for many years, is is very clear eyed about this, unlike, you know, so many other people. He really sees the the direct read across between Russian victory in Ukraine and massive instability in the in the Asia Pacific region. And, and he sees the consequences for his country for Japan. And obviously, for for Taiwan. And so to for American congressional leaders who are thinking about that risk. I think there’s a sort of muddle going on and where where people are thinking, well, you know, rather than worry about Ukraine, we should worry about, about Taiwan. But you see, the whole point is, you avert disaster around the world if you stop Putin succeeding in Ukraine, and the cheapest, most efficient way to show that the West is still up for it is still capable of defending democracy, freedom boundaries, rule of law is for the Ukrainians to win.
Alina Polyakova
So looking ahead a couple of months, we have an important event, which is the NATO summit will be will be held here in Washington in July. It’s the 75th anniversary, as you mentioned, of the Alliance, we’ve had two new members join Sweden, Finland, certainly these are things to be celebrated. But as far as we know, and understand right now, there’s no clear path that’s going to presented it for Ukraine to join NATO at the summit. You have previously said that Ukraine should join the alliance. How is that possible? If there’s an ongoing war in Ukraine? How do you see the path forward?
Boris Johnson
So first of all, that you know, it’s it’s worth waiting for a second on your your point about Finland and Sweden and that really is a comment on how catastrophically Putin has miscalculated in his whole venture already you know, he’s he’s got two historically neutral countries now aligned firmly against him and and against Russia. But the the problem of Ukraine unless we get it into NATO, unless we get Ukraine into NATO, the problem of Ukraine will remain the problem of Ukraine was caused by ambiguity and uncertain about Ukraine’s status and we need to fix it. The only way forward is is the stability and the certainty that comes from NATO membership. Now the problem is a chicken and egg problem which everybody can see which is that you can’t under the rules and it’s very difficult practically to get a country into NATO while it is its boundaries are contested. It hasn’t happened. Well, you know, suppose that you could argue to happen to, to postwar Germany, but it’s a difficult thing to pull off. And so that’s the that’s the problem, the barrier that’s put in place of, of Ukrainian membership. But of course, that gives Putin an incentive to, to continue to protract the war, and to continue to torment Ukraine, because that’s his way of, of, of keeping Ukraine out of NATO. So we need to find a way of breaking that, of squaring that circle, of breaking through that chicken and egg problem. And, and, and starting a process of getting Ukraine in irrespective of the fact that its boundaries are still contested violently. And you and I say that because we’ve tried not having Ukraine in NATO. That’s what this is all about. You know, we we we made various statements that seem to encourage Ukrainian membership of, of NATO, but then failed to go through but failed failed to deliver on any of them. And the result of of that ambiguity has been total disaster. So we tried the the not having Ukraine in NATO led to the worst war in Europe for 80 years. And huge number of civilian casualties. The only way forward is to start getting getting Ukraine into into into NATO, and that I think the problem at the summit in in in Washington is going to be here, you know, people are going to be very hesitant. But what this thing has taught us is that delay and hesitation are making it worse. It was delay and hesitation and giving the right munitions that have protracted this and it’s the delay with the with the supplemental it’s that’s causing so many problems with Ukrainians right now.
Alina Polyakova
So let’s let’s talk about that for a moment. The delays, the lags in deliveries, all of these things have happened in the last two years that have led not to a policy of victory for Ukraine. But I think a policy of Ukraine just not losing. What do you think if, this keeps going at this pace, regardless of what happens with the US elections, whether that’s President Biden second term, or former President Trump’s second term. What do you think is the sense in Europe, and among our European allies in the UK being our closest ally, of course, about the consistency and the reliability of the United States in Europe in particular?
Boris Johnson
Look, I think that I go back to what I said earlier on about the significance in Europe and around the world of a Putin victory. It will be a colossal shock. I mean, the retreat from Afghanistan will be nothing, compared to Putin winning in in Ukraine, nothing. And the message will, China, China’s basically bankrolling Russia completely now. Right. And the Chinese are increasingly think that they’ve, they bet on the right horse, you know, the less, because the longer we delay, the more irresolute they think we are. And so, you know, to your point Alina I think, I think people will think we’ve lost the plot. And it will, it will, it will look like the beginning of the end of American hegemony look like the beginning of the end of Western hegemony. It really will. And is that what you want, folks? I mean, obviously, well and and the end of the tragedy is that this could be fixed with what is by any standards, such a modest outlay. So let’s just get on the dirt.
Alina Polyakova
Here here. Well, Mr. Prime Minister, I’m sorry, I’ll keep calling you that. Because we keep the titles here in the United States.
Boris Johnson
Let me come in handy.
Alina Polyakova
I really appreciate the time you’re taking to have this important discussion with us. You know, I have one last question for you. You know, we are in a really dire situation. We know the politics here in the in the US Congress. We have an election coming up that could be decisive. You have publicly endorsed President Trump.
Boris Johnson
I- with a caveat.
Alina Polyakova
Tell me about those caveats.
Boris Johnson
The right thing on Ukraine. If you mean the the piece in the piece in The Daily Mail. Yeah, yeah, I mean, If look, I mean So, so what I said in a closely argued, closely argued, but evidently widely unread piece in the Daily Mail was that, you know, when you when you actually look at the substance of what Trump did in, in the White House on foreign policy, you can you can make a case for quite a lot of it. You know, the, I think he took firm action on Bashar Al Assad’s use of chemical weapons, which can which compared quite favorably with the inaction of the previous administration and indeed, the UK, itself in the in 2013. He gave the javelins right, which was not insignificant. He was very tough on on the IRGC Quds Force to put it mildly, which I don’t think was a bad idea in retrospect, but everybody freaked out at the time. You know, I think you can make you can make a case for for things he did. So that that emboldens me to say, Well, come on. If if he can show that spirit in office again, and show the urge to make America great again, in the way that I believe America needs to show that it’s great again, then that could be a very good thing for the world. Yeah, I make no secret. That’s what that’s what I think. But it’s, it’s a, there’s a big if there.
Alina Polyakova
Do you think Europe is ready for another Trump presidency?
Boris Johnson
Yeah, look, I mean, course they are. That is a hilarious idea. I mean, I’ve watched it, I watched it last time, and the point about the President of the United States. And this is what those got, by the way, this is a good thing. And we’ve got to protect this, when the President United States goes to a European summit, and arrives with this huge convoy of preposterously expensive black vehicles which clog, the clog, that clog the streets of whichever tiny, lovely, beautiful European capital, or Cornish village or wherever he he he arrives, what happens is that the European whoever, whoever he or she, the President may be the Europe and whatever they may say about that President when they want to look cool to their own electorate, in the privacy of the summit meeting, and when they actually have the chance to make nice to the US President it is like watching a tribe of baboons, offering acts of simian homage to the to the to the to the leader. However, baboons do that which I don’t propose to describe. But that is basically what they do. Because that is I mean, you know, all human institutions require a leader. And that’s just the way life is and and the world is no exception. The world and we and frankly, I would rather, of course, I’d rather the UK was the world leader, but you know, that’s, that’s that those days are long gone.
Alina Polyakova
You had a good run.
Boris Johnson
Well, not as long as some people. But I would rather have a liberal capitalist democracy as the as the global hegemon, and I’d rather have America. And what’s happening now in Ukraine is incredibly important, I would say critical for that, that vision of the world.
Alina Polyakova
Well Mr. Prime Minister, thank you so much for this conversation. I really appreciate your time. Let’s give the Prime Minister a hand.
