China Macro Group (CMG)

It was a pleasure to host Prof. Qiyuan Xu, Deputy Director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on 10th December 2024 in our 6th and last webinar of this year’s “Staying in Dialogue with China” series on the 4th structural transition of China’s “Domestic Demand System”.   📝 A key point he made: “My biggest hope is the further build-up of China’s service sector". 👉 Download the webinar transcript here: https://lnkd.in/e8nZkEHc In the webinar, Prof. XU touched on the following topics: 💡 Meaning of “domestic demand system” in the thinking of Chinese policymakers 💡 Evolution, potential and future policymaking regarding China’s service sector 💡 State and prospect of China’s private tutoring sector as an example of service sector 💡 The link between urbanization and social security with domestic demand 💡 Trade and self-reliance aspects and how they relate to China’s domestic demand 💡 State of China’s economy and his biggest hope and concerns respectively Prof. Xu holds a Phd from Northeast Normal University plus a Postdoc from IWEP at CASS. His research focuses on China's macroeconomic policy, global economy and international finance. Key roles of Prof. XU: membership in expert committees for the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the National Bureau of Statistics, member of the Advisory group of the World Bank's annual report (World Development Report 2024) and the Asian Development Bank Institute, expert member of the 15th Five-Year-Plan of the MIIT and he is also a special expert for a “Chinese Economists Confidence Survey” by the NBS. The webinar was moderated by Markus Herrmann 陈瑞华, Co-Founder and Managing Director of China Macro Group (CMG). #CMG2025 #China #domesticdemandsystem #StayinginDialoguewithChina #managementconsulting

Thanks for this collaboration and we look forward to learning more from and adding analytical value to the Caixin Summits in the years to come!

Check out CMG Insight 24 - our last one in 2024! Thanks for reading us throughout the year and sharing your feedbacks! While we know that there are many newsletters related to China targeting audiences in Europe, it is our goal at CMG to be consistent with our effort of building a community interested in reading us actively. We will thus continue tracking China’s top-level policymaking also into 2025 through our publications and webinars for you, as well as share analysis and viewpoints on topics we think are key for European business’ strategic decision-making on China. Key content items in today’s edition: 👉 “First ever” draft definition of “Made in China” 👉 Re-watch recording of CMG’s read-out webinar on the Caixin Summit 👉 Last minute / today: register for the webinar with Prof. XU Qiyuan 👉 Download the transcript from our last webinar with Prof. YU Miaojie 👉 CMG Season's Greetings #CMG #CMGInsights #China #CaixinGlobal #managementconsulting

💡Significant draft policy announced: With China’s first ever Draft definition for Made in China, formal criteria are proposed qualifying products in China’s public procurement relevant for foreign OEMs and suppliers Since the Third Plenum 2024, China Macro Group (CMG) has observed that China is vowing to treat state, private and foreign capital more equally based on China’s shift to a (geoeconomic) supply capacity logic with the 14th FYP, putting less emphasis on ideological differences between capital forms in its strategic self-interest. MoF’s new draft regulation today shall be seen as a notable step for this too. For the first time, it has just published the (draft) definition of “Made in China” for public procurement, in response to the lack of a clear definition and incurred discrimination against some FIEs in public procurement. 📝Below are the key highlights from CMG’s analysis: 👉Three requirements for Made in China: (1) produced in China, (2) minimum percentage of Chinese components, and (3) key components/process in China (for some products only) 👉Made in China products will be favored in public procurement, even if priced higher than alternatives 👉Impacted FIEs include those serving governments, social health insurance, public research institutions, infrastructure SOEs (who will be regulated under public procurement soon), etc. This regulation will probably be recognized by many other SOEs and Chinese companies 👉Moreover, first and second tier suppliers to these FIEs, even if they do not really have business in China, will be impacted due to the components percentage requirement 👉Key affected industries include R&D equipment, energy, grid, telecommunication, healthcare, public transportation, petrochemical, etc. 👉While this draft can be expected to improve equal treatment of MNCs who have localized in China, SMEs with higher localization cost will face chenllenges 👉FIEs are suggested to lobby via industry associations for the draft regulation in the following month and for the potential requirement (2) and (3), which will be published in the next 3-5 years 👉In the meanwhile, FIEs shall review their China strategy, especially the localization strategy CMG offers extensive experience in helping to devise China strategies, localization strategies, local partnership concepts, and M&A strategy design. #MadeinChina #ChinaStrategy #LocalizationStrategy

💡Significant draft policy announced: With China’s first ever Draft definition for Made in China, formal criteria are proposed qualifying products in China’s public procurement relevant for foreign OEMs and suppliers Since the Third Plenum 2024, China Macro Group (CMG) has observed that China is vowing to treat state, private and foreign capital more equally based on China’s shift to a (geoeconomic) supply capacity logic with the 14th FYP, putting less emphasis on ideological differences between capital forms in its strategic self-interest. MoF’s new draft regulation today shall be seen as a notable step for this too. For the first time, it has just published the (draft) definition of “Made in China” for public procurement, in response to the lack of a clear definition and incurred discrimination against some FIEs in public procurement. 📝Below are the key highlights from CMG’s analysis: 👉Three requirements for Made in China: (1) produced in China, (2) minimum percentage of Chinese components, and (3) key components/process in China (for some products only) 👉Made in China products will be favored in public procurement, even if priced higher than alternatives 👉Impacted FIEs include those serving governments, social health insurance, public research institutions, infrastructure SOEs (who will be regulated under public procurement soon), etc. This regulation will probably be recognized by many other SOEs and Chinese companies 👉Moreover, first and second tier suppliers to these FIEs, even if they do not really have business in China, will be impacted due to the components percentage requirement 👉Key affected industries include R&D equipment, energy, grid, telecommunication, healthcare, public transportation, petrochemical, etc. 👉While this draft can be expected to improve equal treatment of MNCs who have localized in China, SMEs with higher localization cost will face chenllenges 👉FIEs are suggested to lobby via industry associations for the draft regulation in the following month and for the potential requirement (2) and (3), which will be published in the next 3-5 years 👉In the meanwhile, FIEs shall review their China strategy, especially the localization strategy CMG offers extensive experience in helping to devise China strategies, localization strategies, local partnership concepts, and M&A strategy design. #MadeinChina #ChinaStrategy #LocalizationStrategy

Last Call: Caixin Summit - Read-out webinar on December 5, 2024 👉 Sign-up for our digital CMG read-out webinar tomorrow to learn more about our analysis and raise your questions. 📅 Date: December 5, 2024 🕘 Time: 9 am CET/ 4 pm CST 📝 Register here: https://lnkd.in/ecDh7r8A

Last Call: Register for our last webinar of our 2024 edition of the "Staying in Dialogue with China" webinar series. 📅 Date: December 10, 2024 🕘 Time: 9 am CET/ 4 pm CST 📝 Register here: https://lnkd.in/ecDh7r8A Markus Herrmann 陈瑞华, Co-Founder & Managing Director of China Macro Group (CMG) will discuss with Prof. Qiyuan Xu critical questions relating to China's "Domestic Demand System". Read more 👇

China Macro Group (CMG) attended Caixin’s annual flagship event, the Caixin Summit (8/9 Nov.), in Beijing, and to make sense of all the diverse viewpoints we heard there, we – in partnership with Caixin Global – put together a slide deck summarizing and calibrating the current debate in Beijing regarding the most pressing issues facing China’s economy.   📝Sign-up here to join a digital CMG read-out webinar where we will discuss this analysis, lead by Alex Zheng Zhou, Senior Analyst at CMG and zengxin li, Deputy General Manager of Caixin Global, and take the opportunity to raise your questions.   👉 Register here: https://lnkd.in/eEquhPyV   📅 Date: December 5, 2024 🕘 Time: 9 am CET/ 4 pm CST #CMG #managementconsulting #CaixinGlobal #Caixinsummit #Chinaeconomy #Keydebates

Just out: CMG Insight #23 Meanwhile, we have the confirmation who will be the 47th US President. Donald J. Trump will return to the White House on 20th January 2025, and with him likely again a more volatile US-China relationship. But before saying more about Trump 2.0., we want to put our focus on the state of China’s economy. As we have done regularly in past years, CMG a few weeks ago attended Caixin’s annual flagship event the Caixin Summit in Beijing, and to make sense of all the diverse viewpoints we heard there, we – in partnership with Caixin Global – put together a slide deck summarizing and calibrating the current debate in Beijing regarding the most pressing issues facing China’s economy. In this edition of CMG Insight, you can download the slide deck and sign-up for a CMG read-out webinar next Thursday morning 9am CET / 4pm CST where our Senior Analyst Alex Zheng Zhou – alongside zengxin li from Caixin Global introducing the Caixin Summit – will talk you through this analysis and answer questions. Thus, the highlights of CMG Insight #23 are: 👉 As mentioned: CMG Analysis on Caixin Summit – incl. read-out webinar 👉 Caixin CEO Luncheon: Special offering for CMG's Europe-focused network 👉 Webinar with Prof. XU Qiyuan on 10th Dec. on China's ‘Domestic Demand System’ 👉 Transcript: Past Webinar with Prof. YU Miaojie on ‘Economic Globalization’ 👉 Revamped CMG Associate Program and refined (Senior-)Analyst role You can find the full CMG Insight here: https://lnkd.in/ddt3m7sE Want to receive all our insights and analyses? Subscribe here to CMG Insight: https://lnkd.in/dhan5ksy #CMG #CMGInsight #China #CaixinSummit #DebateinBeijing #Trump2.0 #CEOLuncheon #StayinginDialoguewithChina #Recruiting