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Can Anyone Dethrone Taylor Swift at No. 1 This Summer?

Swift has embraced every tactic necessary to retain her top slot on the Billboard albums chart

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Can Anyone Dethrone Taylor Swift at No. 1 This Summer?
Taylor Swift (photo by Kevin Mazur via Getty for TAS Rights Management) / Illustration by Allison Aubrey

    For two months now, The Tortured Poets Department, the 11th studio album from Taylor Swift, has sat at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart. That’s eight consecutive weeks for the LP, which has remained on top through the release of Billie Eilish’s HIT ME HARD AND SOFT and Charli XCX’s BRAT, and seems unlikely to budge any time soon.

    To many, this probably doesn’t sound all that surprising — Swift is on top of the world, after all, as she continues “The Eras Tour” and basks in the glow of her fifth Album of the Year trophy. But admittedly, TTPD hasn’t exactly remained in that top spot without a fight.

    As new albums from Billie Eilish and Charli XCX picked up momentum and acclaim, Swift released variants of TTPD with one or two new tracks, the most recent additions being voice note recordings and live versions of songs that appear on the project. Billboard’s structure counts these types of reissues as sales towards the overall charting placement, and even these barely-edited tracks pressure fans and collectors to buy the entire project again.

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    On one hand, it’s just business, and Swift is playing the game within the rules Billboard provides, like many other pop artists have done. She’s not forcing anyone to buy the new versions of the album, and the sheer size of her followers almost ensures the strategy works. But on the other hand, it’s kind of lame.

    So the question becomes, with the power of capitalism and fandom on her side, can anyone surpass Taylor and claim that No. 1 slot this summer? The first answer isn’t most people’s idea of a savior, but, last summer, Morgan Wallen’s all-out chart dominance said it all. The mammoth country project spent a wild 18 non-consecutive weeks atop the Billboard 200 chart in 2023, matching the legacy of Garth Brooks’ iconic Ropin’ the Wind — on the charts, at least. Even now, Wallen is currently the only artist with multiple songs in the Top 5 of the Apple Music charts in the US, but he doesn’t have a full-length project set for summer 2024.

    Meanwhile, one artist with a recently completed LP is John Mayer’s idea of a savior, at least — Zach Bryan is continuing on his  “The Quittin Time Tour” while gearing up for his next release. Though no date has been confirmed yet for The Great American Bar Scene, the album could be poised to challenge TTPD, considering the fact that Bryan’s 2023 self-titled LP moved 200,000 units in its first week and debuted at No. 1. The touring king has only gotten bigger since last year’s rollout.

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    New on the country front is Post Malone, whose recent single with Morgan Wallen has been perched comfortably atop the Hot 100 for weeks now. The rapper and singer-songwriter is committing to the genre pivot with a full country album announced for August 16th, titled F-1 Trillion. The project will feature heavy-hitters like Blake Shelton and Luke Combs promising an expanded listening pool for the already successful artist.

    More big competition might just be packaged in a 4′ 11″ frame. “Eras Tour” opener Sabrina Carpenter recently announced her next album, Short n’ Sweet, set for release in August. Carpenter doesn’t have anything close to the sheer numbers Swift has accumulated, but she’s building momentum quickly. Her 2024 single “Espresso” achieved viral status, debuting at No. 7 on the Hot 100 and peaking at No. 3 before reaching No. 1 on Global Spotify. She played the game and released five alternate versions of the track with names like “Espresso” (Double Shot Version). This business strategy, combined with the viral appeal of her frothy pop tunes, could poise Short n’ Sweet to challenge TTPD, which by August 23rd will have been available for over four full months.

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