Wie können Zentralbanken makroökonomische Krisen bewältigen?

The two main ways that most central banks respond to a deflationary economic crisis is by lowering interest rates and by buying government bonds, to further lower rates, once the key rate has the zero bound.

Monetary policy has been centre-stage since 2008 given how much central banks have been using not only the base rates but also quantitative easing in order to save the financial system and boost the economy. For the past fifteen years, real interest rates - ie nominal base rates less inflation - have been around zero or even negative, and have led to an unprecedented increase in debt to GDP globally as this was simultaneous in most G20 countries. In addition quantitative easing was “invented” at the time of the financial crisis but remained a key tool supplementing rates policy, and led to exuberant monetary creation that culminated during COVID lockdowns. Unfortunately this excessive period of stimulation now needs unwinding …

Monetary policy, which includes determining the interest rate and affecting the money supply and credit conditions in the economy, is one of the primary responsibilities of central banks. Normally, central banks employ monetary policy to accomplish their goals of economic expansion and price stability. Monetary policy, however, can also be utilized to boost confidence, increase demand, and supply liquidity during times of crisis. For instance, several central banks cut their interest rates to almost zero during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis and flooded the financial system with vast sums of money using unorthodox methods like quantitative easing and credit easing.

Central banks manage macroeconomic crises by using tools like adjusting interest rates, conducting open market operations, and providing liquidity to stabilize banks. They employ strategies such as quantitative easing and forward guidance while coordinating with fiscal authorities. Regulatory measures strengthen the financial system, and currency interventions stabilize exchange rates. Success depends on crisis severity and policy credibility.

Through various monetary policy tools and actions like Monitoring Interest rate, macroprudential policies, coordinate with fiscal authorities to implement a comprehensive policy, stability of the financial system, increasing capital requirements for banks, intervene in the foreign exchange market. Overall, central banks play a crucial role in managing macroeconomic crises by using a combination of these tools and strategies to stabilize the economy and mitigate the impact of crises.

he Central Bank can implement crucial regulations for financial institutions to adhere to in order to combat unforeseen situations. It requires institutions to reserve capital to address unexpected losses and to include provisions in their balance sheets to mitigate anticipated losses.

The Central Bank can use microeconomic variables to manage the economy by introducing financial stability measures such as mopping up excess cash in the system. For example, when the Nigerian economy was experiencing high inflation some years ago, cash in circulation was reduced by the CBN through the introduction of new notes. This brought down inflation as there was less cash to meet demand of goods and services.

Existen maneras de controlar la estabilidad financiera dependiendo también en gran parte de las políticas económicas que se adopte. En algunos países se establece un fondo de capitales que respaldan, valga la redundancia, el capital legal del banco y que está debidamente regulado por ley. También se establece un encaje legal, como fondo de contingencia ante una posible inestabilidad financiera, entre otros.

Além das taxas de empréstimo de liquidez, percentuais de depósitos compulsorios, atuação no mercado de câmbio e definição da taxa básica de juros, a autoridade monetária tem também um importante papel a ser desenvolvido na influência das expectativas, através da persuasão moral, ou seja, falas com credibilidade sobre a percepção que o banco central tem do futuro dos indicadores macroeconômicos reduzindo portanto a incerteza dos agentes econômicos.

Financial Stability Measures: - Central banks implement various policies to ensure financial stability, including setting capital requirements for financial institutions, conducting stress tests, and providing lender-of-last-resort support during liquidity crises. - macroprudential regulations, stress testing, and oversight of financial institutions. These policies aim to ensure the stability of the financial system and prevent systemic risks. Central banks work closely with other regulatory authorities to coordinate these measures effectively. - Detailed supervision of banks and financial institutions, regulation of financial markets, and the establishment of emergency liquidity facilities to prevent systemic risks.

Central banks employ exchange rate policies using a range of strategies: 1. Rate Pegs: Pegging the currency to a stable foreign currency can provide stability during crises- by predictable exchange rates/ raised investor confidence. 2.Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: Allowing the currency to float freely enables adjustment to economic shocks. 3.Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets: Central banks intervene by buying or selling currency to stabilize rates or counter speculative attacks. This helps mitigate excessive volatility. 6. Coordination with Monetary Policy: Adjusting interest rates or liquidity provision alongside exchange rate interventions supports macroeconomic stability.

Según la revista datos macro: "El tipo de cambio es el precio de una unidad monetaria de un país, expresado en términos de una moneda distinta". Por su definición, el tipo de cambio (Et) carece de complejidad, sin embargo, para entender los distintos factores que influyen en sus fluctuaciones es objeto de estudio. Hay muchos datos relevantes desde que existe un Et fijo y variable. El tipo de cambio (Et) de un país tiene correlación directa con el tipo de cambio internacional (Et*) y con el tipo de interés. Por la tasa de interés pueden los bancos centrales dependiendo del tipo de cambio que se adopte regular la economía, esto es importante porque las variaciones del Et pueden hacer ganar competitividad entre un país en comparación a otro.

- Central banks can manage exchange rates through interventions in the foreign exchange market, setting interest rates, or using forward guidance to influence market expectations. - The choice between hawkish (tightening monetary policy) or dovish (easing monetary policy) approaches depends on the economic conditions and the central bank's goals. Both approaches can be effective in managing exchange rate fluctuations. - Forward/options/long/short/straddle/market monitoring/diversivication/safe heaven assets/natural hedging

- Central banks can manage exchange rates through interventions in the foreign exchange market, setting interest rates, or using forward guidance to influence market expectations. - The choice between hawkish (tightening monetary policy) or dovish (easing monetary policy) approaches depends on the economic conditions and the central bank's goals. Both approaches can be effective in managing exchange rate fluctuations. - Forward/options/long/short/straddle/market monitoring/diversivication/safe heaven assets/natural hedging

Una función clave en el Banco Central de Perú (que se caracteriza por su credibilidad Institucional) es la influir como un amortiguador en el tipo de cambio. Si bien es cierto que es importante el valor de la moneda local, lo cierto es que al encontrarnos en un escenario de libre mercado cuya influencia puede afectar a importadores y exportadores en caso se tenga una meta con respecto al tipo de cambio, entonces lo que se busca es atenuar las desviaciones en los precios de la divisa, esto mediante la compra de dólares cuando el precio del mismo baje y soltando dólares a través del sistema financiero cuando dicha divisa suba su precio).

To reduce uncertainty and interest rate volatility, central banks ( the Federal Reserve Bank in the US) should set an interest rate target over a longer horizon ( a target path for the Fed funds rate over say 2 years ) and then announce that it will change this course only if there is a material change in the economic conditions ( inflation, interest) such that the target is more likely to be missed by a material amount. Currently, the Fed is adopting a “data-dependent “ approach, seemingly disregarding the underlying factors that can cause inflation to fall ( slower rent growth, more financial strain that can slow consumer spending). The current data is lagging , the Fed should be forward- looking. Good economic modeling is key.

There has to sufficient communication between relevant Stakeholders to reduce speculation and fake news. This will also reduce the urge for patronizing black markets for forex

La comunicación clara y transparente es crucial para mantener la confianza en las acciones de los bancos centrales. La Reserva Federal de EE. UU., por ejemplo, utiliza comunicados de prensa y conferencias para explicar sus decisiones de política monetaria y proporcionar orientación sobre las perspectivas económicas, lo que ayuda a los mercados y al público a comprender mejor su enfoque y estrategia. El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) publica minutas detalladas de sus reuniones de política monetaria y ofrece conferencias de prensa regulares para explicar sus decisiones y perspectivas económicas. Una herramienta efectiva para mejorar la comunicación y la transparencia es el software de gestión de relaciones con los inversores (IR). com HubSpot

Communication and credibility complement each other in a symbiotic relationship essential for effective information exchange and trust-building. Effective communication, characterized by clarity, accuracy, transparency, and tailored approaches, serves to establish credibility by positioning the communicator as a reliable and trustworthy source. In return, credibility enhances communication impact, persuasiveness, and active listening, fostering audience receptivity and belief in the delivered messages. Maintaining credibility involves maintaining consistency, being accountable for actions, and engaging in continuous learning to uphold trust and integrity.

The Fed emphasized transparent and consistent communication during the crisis. Through regular press conferences, speeches, and the publication of financial stability reports, the Fed aimed to build trust and credibility. Clear communication about its actions and intentions helped manage market expectations and stabilize financial markets.

Coordination entails organizing and synchronizing individual efforts towards a shared goal through meticulous planning and task alignment. In contrast, cooperation involves voluntary collaboration and resource-sharing for mutual benefit, emphasizing teamwork and a collective spirit. Coordination sets the framework for cooperation by clarifying roles and optimizing teamwork, while cooperation enhances coordination by promoting communication, adaptation, and mutual support. Together, they operate synergistically, with effective coordination instilling a sense of shared purpose to encourage cooperation, and a collaborative mindset facilitating smoother coordination and heightened team performance.

The Fed's response to the crisis involved significant coordination with other central banks and international financial institutions. Through concerted efforts like coordinated interest rate cuts and swap lines to provide liquidity, the Fed worked closely with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and others. This global cooperation was crucial in restoring confidence in the financial system.

En situaciones de crisis económicas internacionales, la coordinación entre los bancos centrales y otras autoridades económicas es fundamental para una respuesta efectiva. Durante la crisis financiera global de 2008, hubo una coordinación sin precedentes entre los principales bancos centrales y gobiernos para implementar medidas de estímulo coordinadas y prevenir una recesión más profunda. Durante la crisis del euro en 2010, el Banco Central Europeo, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Comisión Europea formaron la "Troika" para coordinar la asistencia financiera a los países en crisis, como Grecia, Portugal e Irlanda, con el objetivo de estabilizar la zona euro y restaurar la confianza de los mercados.

En mi experiencia, el Banco Central (BC) de cada país es una Institución vital para el bienestar macroeconómico (que debería verse reflejado en el microeconómico o de las familias también dicho). Un BC autónomo, sin dependencia política y cuyo factor humano sea realmente meritocrático son buenas señales de que se tiene buen rumbo. Por el contrario, si el BC está conformado por personas de un determinado bando político, tendrían sesgos en sus decisiones, como por ejemplo, sacrificar el corto plazo por el largo plazo, mediante la emisión de billetes de manera descontrolada, generando inicialmente una sensación de riqueza o bienestar económico, pero en el mediano plazo una inflación por remediar.

- Central banks can manage macroeconomic crises by maintaining effective communication with the public, policymakers, and financial markets. - Central banks coordinate with the Ministry of Finance, financial authorities, bank regulators, and other stakeholders to develop a comprehensive policy response to macroeconomic crises. - Central banks face challenges in managing crises in a VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguoity) environment. To address these challenges, central banks need to be flexible, adaptive, and innovative in their policy responses while acknowledging the limitations of traditional and digital inrpvement of monetary tools

Despite these efforts, the Fed faced challenges, including criticism over the bailout of certain financial institutions, which raised concerns about moral hazard. Additionally, the effectiveness of QE and its impact on income inequality have been debated. The Fed also navigated the delicate balance between stimulating the economy and the risk of triggering inflation.

- Central banks can manage macroeconomic crises by maintaining effective communication with the public, policymakers, and financial markets. - Central banks coordinate with the Ministry of Finance, financial authorities, bank regulators, and other stakeholders to develop a comprehensive policy response to macroeconomic crises. - Central banks face challenges in managing crises in a VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguoity) environment. To address these challenges, central banks need to be flexible, adaptive, and innovative in their policy responses while acknowledging the limitations of traditional and digital inrpvement of monetary tools

Central banks, in a post-Keynesian framework, manage macroeconomic crises through monetary policy tools like interest rates and quantitative easing to stimulate demand and stabilize prices. They focus on reducing unemployment by boosting aggregate demand through easy credit and lowering borrowing costs for businesses. Additionally, they intervene in financial markets to prevent systemic collapse and restore confidence. However, they must also address structural issues like income inequality and underinvestment to ensure long-term stability and growth.

They should anticipate all kind of crises and also be flexible to change their policy according to the situation that they are in

Monetary tools should work all in parallel to achieve as satisfactory result, as applying one withou another might not have the required effect. The Egyptian central bank had tried to manage the current crisis of stagflation through various tools such as increasing intrest rates thus promoting contraction and reducing expenditure to control the inflation, however the poor currency value management which led to huge discrepancies between the official price of currency versus the market value of currency had excerted high inflatory pressures leading to a severe reduction of currency purchasing power with losing 90% of its own value.

Lender of Last Resort: Central banks act as lenders of last resort to provide liquidity support to financial institutions facing liquidity shortages during crises. This helps prevent widespread financial panic and systemic collapses.

Central banks, often misconceived as crisis managers, differ from the survey's premise. Contrary to assuming entities like the Federal Reserve, ECB, or Bank of England influence market rates, they react to the Eurodollar market—private bank money. The decision to lend in the Eurodollar market lies with individual banks, not central entities. In our globally interconnected financial system grounded in debt, a crucial point emerges: banks refraining from loans since the 2008 Crisis leads to a contraction in the M2 money supply. This, unrelated to central banks or reserves, hinges on SIFI institutions' reluctance to initiate loans.