Welche Strategien gibt es, um technologische Trends zu antizipieren?

It’s really important to teach ourselves not to think linearly. You can’t know all the research that’s going on - so count on some exponentials kicking in. Think of the what if scenarios, and explore combinatorial technologies working together.

It is important to understand the cycles of technological change and the phase we are currently in before investing in technology. Amara's Law is particularly useful in this regard - the law that we overestimate progress in the short term and underestimate it in the long term. If we are in the first phase of a business cycle, then it is likely that the market will over-inflate, and vendors of technological solutions will over-promise and under-deliver. If we are in the second phase, then it is likely that the market will be nervous, and the pace of exponential change will catch people, companies and the market by surprise, offering huge benefits for those who invest courageously and strategically.

Building a network of professionals who specialize in predicting future developments can provide you with valuable insights and early access to emerging trends, allowing you to position yourself at the forefront of technological change.

Three things come to my mind. 1) Run a 'Pictures of the future process' with a diverse set of company-internal and external experts. Not a scenario 'the world in 20 years'. I think it's fruitless. A small virus comes along and changes a lot of things... You take one question, e.g. a Financial Services company asking 'What is the future of money?' A number of workshops, some Delphi processes and there's good chance to spot some new stuff. Then, condense it into one picture. No, not 200 slides. One picture only. Interesting discussions what should be in the picture (and what not) what is into foreground, how big, etc. 2) Build a diverse Advisory Board and engage them in these kind of questions.

It is really important to have a team with right mindset, to not only be aware of the latest technologies but also actively engage in exploring how these technologies work; and whether and how these technologies can be applied effectively in the specific context of their industry and company. Academic-industry collaboration, knowledge sharing and collaborative learning are very helpful here.

Esto es fundamental, tener la capacidad de interpretar y orquestar los puntos en ámbitos tecnológicos, regulatorios, microeconómicos, macroeconómicos y sociales, esto con el objetivo de poder predecir tendencias que permitan presentar una idea que pueda sastisfacer una necesidad y que se transforme en un producto o innovación

A key challenge when looking at technological innovations is the ability to separate the signal from the noise. One of the approaches I advocate is firstly to look outward, and then look inward. First, ask whether any of these technologies fundamentally change the way that your customers can complete their 'job to be done' - the outcome they would rent your services to achieve. Secondly, does it change the way that they could engage with your company, removing any barriers to value or inconveniences? From an internal perspective, the question becomes, 'Does this technology enable the effective delivery of your strategy?' If it doesn't help with either, then it is probably just noise. If it does, then attention to it should be given.

Utilize scenario planning to make informed decisions. By creating multiple scenarios based on different combinations of technological trends, you can prepare your business for a range of potential futures, reducing vulnerability to unexpected developments.

Here's how you can leverage critical thinking, creativity, and curiosity to synthesize information and generate insights about the future: 1. Pattern Recognition 2. Implications Analysis 3. Cross-Impact Analysis 4. Insight Generation 5. Relationship Mapping

I love a roadmap, but sometimes it captures only key events or milestones. Getting some friends and colleagues with domain-specific expertise to help map out some of the key levers and drivers that can make the milestone happen can help focus thoughts into actions. What would make the milestone happen? What key levers and drivers can we influence and pull to create outcomes that push milestones into being? These become your "dots" to connect.

Collaborate with international experts and research organizations. Access a broader range of insights and knowledge by partnering with experts from diverse cultural and geographical backgrounds.

Uma outra fonte de conhecimento, extremamente rica, para identificar novas dores e destas ser debatido quais mudanças ou novas propostas de valor podem surgir, são as plataformas de reclamações de clientes. Em alguns países, já temos empresas especializadas nessa coleta de reclamações e a utilizam para identificar oportunidades de melhorias em seus produtos ou algum aspecto que o concorrente não consegue atender ou tem dificuldades, sendo uma fonte de oportunidades para conquista de novos clientes.

Build your network and use is. If you’re surrounded by smart people you will get to hear about their passions and interests, something you can learn from and adopt as required.

The keys to being able to leverage the value of new technological innovations lie not in the software but in the thoughtware of those doing the application. The ability to think about the potential of a new technology critically and without restriction allows companies to not only use these tools to digitise and automate existing ways of working but to radically rethink their value propositions, business models and modes of operation. This is where the perspective of others can become especially useful. Often, it is difficult to see beyond the noise and chaos of your current reality, and thus, the focus lies on taking away immediate pains rather than acquiring new gains. A fresh, alternative perspective can be hugely insightful.

De acuerdo con mi experiencia del último año, las comunidades especializadas son una excelente forma de no solo aprender sobre nuevas tendencias, dado que, también es la oportunidad de investigar más a profundidad y trasmitir este conocimiento adquirido a grupos de personas que quizá no tengan la oportunidad de participar en estos grupos especializados.

Like Steven Bartlett says, “Fail fast and fail often”. The faster and more frequent we fail, the faster we’re able to learn and grow. Companies need to setup testing procedures that accommodate for failure and provide company wide access to the results and learnings from all tests. This way, redundant tests can be prevented which will reduce waste of resources. Also, what fails for one department might work for another department so wide open access to company tests can spark innovation while educating everyone on what is possible.

Cannot agree more that experimenting and iterating combined with a user feedback loop are the essential key for innovation. Depending on the prototyping stage, it’s best to restrict and test with only few users to be more agile. It’s important to well define and select the target user to test in order to get relevant feedback.

Para mí este aspecto es uno o quizá el más importante, es la oportunidad de evaluar si realmente lo que nos dice la teoría es aplicable a nuestra realidad, si evaluamos y definimos que no funciona, cambiamos o definitivamente vamos al siguiente experimento.

if it's possible to try, research and test - this is the best way to prove the hypothesis. But, for long-term predicting it is typically not possible. that is why the long -term predictions are the highest risks and can even become the defining the future predictions. To try the technology means there are some prototypes or models existing, thus this is something that already started, that lowers significantly the risks

Estratégias inovadoras colaboram, para antecipar tendências tecnológicas, envolvendo a exploração ativa, experimentação e iteração com novas tecnologias e soluções que não apenas despertem seu interesse, mas também resolvam problemas para você ou seu público-alvo. Essa abordagem requer testes de produtos, serviços ou ferramentas emergentes, avaliando meticulosamente desempenho, usabilidade e valor. Proporcionando um terreno fértil para descobrir e experimentar ofertas inovadoras. Complementarmente, a aplicação de métodos como prototipagem, testes e ciclos de feedback possibilita a criação e melhoria contínua de soluções personalizadas, alinhadas às últimas tendências tecnológicas.

L'évaluation des scénarios d'évolution à long terme d'une industrie ne repose pas sur l'extrapolation de tendances court termistes uniquement. Il s'agit d'étendre cette réflexion en envisageant un retournement de rupture des usages et des sauts technologiques importants, sans oublier l'importance du critère pratique et simple dans l'usage de tous les produits et services. Par exemple, si le cloud révolutionne l'architecture IT des grandes entreprises, ce n'est pas parce qu'il permet d'avoir accès aux capacités techniques (algorithmes, infrastructures) les plus complexes mais avant tout parce qu'il permet un usage significativement plus simple (scalabilité quasi instantannée, service d'IA sur étagère, variabilisation des coûts) etc..

Além de capturar informações do mercado, via pesquisas ou qualquer outro método, é importante entender como sua empresa interpreta e trata esses dados e insights. O grande desafio para programas de inovação ganharem tração, está ligado ao fato da copanhia não conseguir dar sequência sobre os achados ou ideias, minando assim os projetos de inovação. Outro aspecto está ligado a forma como os incentivos ou formas de mediar as iniciativas de inovação são realizadas, gerando eventuais barreiras corporativas para o fomento da experimentação. Dessa forma, avalie como a informação flui dentro da empresa, buscando maximizar a experimentação e eliminar os anticorpos corporativos contra o novo.

The predictions of technology always seem easier to forecast in the next 20 years than 5 years. Thinking long-term helps to connect the dots back to the present, through history and past knowledge we can refine the predictions and seek evidences to move from assumptions to validated convictions about technological trends.

Para mantenerse actualizado en torno a las tendencias de innovación, es fundamental propiciar el pensamiento de largo plazo. Algunas herramientas útiles a considerar son: Future Thinking, la vigilancia tecnológica, vinculación con Startups, entre otras.

Long term lasting transformation comes from an unwavering focus on the long term. With a light post teams, organizations, and goals all align themselves towards a better future. Rather than letting the stock market or news of the day impact mental space continue to break ground to drive towards the future.

Look for developments happening in adjacent industries. Technological innovations in one industry often drive changes in other. Collaboration and networking with R&D departments, academia, industry experts, and professionals from related fields to access cutting-edge research and uncover new ideas and perspectives. Keep an eye on emerging startups, their funding, and the problems they are solving.Startups often pioneer new tech. Patent landscaping can also be used to forecast technological trends and anticipate future market shifts.

To anticipate technological trends effectively, engage in continuous learning through education and conferences, network with industry experts, monitor market shifts and startups, collaborate with innovation hubs, and conduct scenario planning. Utilize data analytics, establish future-focused teams, understand tech adoption curves, perform environmental scanning, and seek cross-industry insights. Combining these strategies aids in proactive identification and leveraging of emerging tech trends for strategic decision-making.

Having an open mind and a curious vision are vital elements. In the realm of molecular sciences, we've seen this happen numerous times, with insights arising unexpectedly. Da Vinci, Julio Verne, Aldous Huxley are examples of individuals with disruptive ideas that seemed surreal in their time. This is a good way to conceive the new. And I love to imagine how the future may be. What should be a good path. In Genetics the future will be when we put the raw sample into the machine and receive a full report extracting all data from that: genomic, transcriptome and also epigenetics, with clinical actionable insights..

1. Continuous Learning 2. Networking 3. Market Research 4.Experimentation 5. Open Source Contributions: Engage with open source projects to understand and contribute to cutting-edge developments within the community. 6. Cross-disciplinary learning 7. Feedback Loops: Regularly seek feedback from colleagues, mentors, or industry experts. External perspectives can help you identify blind spots.

Unlearn and relearn. Technology trends in an overarching level remain mostly the same. The trends usually differentiate at a micro trend level so we need to observe factors like financials, macro economy, research activity, and hiring activity over few months including the press activity as well to analyze hype, disruption and adoption,