Was sind die wichtigsten Überlegungen bei der Bewertung eines notleidenden Unternehmens?

I would add the following 6 points: 1. Financial Condition: Assessing the company's financial health is crucial. 2. Liabilities and Debt Structure: Evaluating the company's liabilities and debt structure. 3. Market Conditions: Consider the current market conditions and industry trends that may impact the distressed company. 4. Management and Leadership: Assess the company's management team. 5. Stakeholder Analysis: Identify and analyze the influence of various stakeholders, such as creditors, shareholders, employees, customers, and suppliers. 6. Legal and Regulatory Issues: Investigate any ongoing legal or regulatory proceedings.

If a company is distressed, be sure not to IMMEDIATELY give advice: most companies that are in distress first and foremost need someone just to listen, and it can be really frustrating when you rush to offer solutions before they've even had a chance to express how they're feeling. Most of the time, distressed companies are working to identify and define their problem and will ask you specifically what you think they should do when they want that. Be a sounding board. Ask open-ended questions. Affirm, affirm, affirm. Tell them you'll always be there for them. Turn the phone off and listen intently. That will be the best thing for them.

When valuing a distressed company, key considerations include assessing the essential viability of the business, avoiding the dismantling of its assets, and providing it with the necessary support to potentially recover. Additionally, understanding the company's financial position, asset quality, market conditions, and potential restructuring options are crucial factors in determining its valuation. It's important to carefully evaluate the company's underlying strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions when valuing a distressed business.

First and foremost, identify the source of distress: systemic crisis? external cause? business change? incompetence? fraud? etc.

Valuing a distressed company involves assessing assets (liquidation value), future cash flow potential, and earnings. The market position, brand, and intellectual property contribute to value. Existing contracts, relationships, and tax attributes play a role. Liabilities, debt structure, and negotiations with creditors impact net valuation. Industry conditions and the potential for management or operational improvements are considered. Contingent liabilities and overall market dynamics influence the comprehensive valuation, guiding decisions for investors, creditors, or potential acquirers.

Distressed company valuation methods include asset-based, comparing liquidation value; Comparable Company Analysis, assessing metrics against industry peers; Comparable Transaction Analysis, examining recent deals; Discounted Cash Flow, projecting and discounting future cash flows; Liquidation Valuation, focusing on asset sale proceeds; Earnings Multiples, using adjusted multiples; and Option Pricing Models, considering real options. The choice depends on circumstances, often a blend of methods for a robust valuation in distressed scenarios.

1️⃣Discounted cash flow (DCF): Estimating future cash flows and discounting them to present value. This is often the preferred method for distressed companies. 2️⃣Transaction multiples: Comparing the company's valuation to similar companies that have been sold recently. This can be less reliable for distressed companies due to the higher degree of uncertainty. 3️⃣Asset-based valuation: Adding up the net book value of the company's assets. This can be misleading for distressed companies as assets may not be easily sold at book value.

All methods are irrelevant in a distress situation. Better focus on cash flow generation capacity: 1. Positive ebitda capacity? 2. Asset disposal opportunities? 3. Reduction of cash conversion cycle? Build a realistic business plan and check whether it can be funded. Otherwise, whether new money providers could have appetite.

Valuation Methods for Distressed Companies: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Emphasizes intrinsic value with future cash flow consideration; sensitive to assumptions. Relative Valuation: Offers a market perspective by comparing with peers; reliant on comparable company data. Asset-Based Valuation: Focuses on tangible assets, suitable for liquidation; may undervalue intangibles. Considerations: Method Selection: Tailor to company circumstances. Assumptions Impact: Results vary with different inputs. Holistic Approach: Use multiple methods for validation. Company-Specific Factors: Customize methods for the unique situation and prospects of the distressed company.

When valuing a distressed company, you need to use all of the three main types of valuation and get a weighted average between the three to reach a more accurate value.

valuing distressed companies requires applying an appropriate discount rate that reflects the increased risk of default and other negative outcomes. Factors such as the company's financial condition, industry dynamics, and management capabilities should be considered when determining the discount rate. Methods such as CAPM, the Build-Up Method, comparable analyses, and real options analysis can be used to establish the appropriate discount rate. It is also important to consider a range of possible outcomes and scenarios to make informed investment decisions.

When choosing a discount rate, I tend to choose a 3 case scenario i.e best, worst, middle. This becomes a quick way of gauging the potential value of the company based on known assets and liabilities.

Discount rates for a distressed company involve elevating the cost of equity using models like CAPM, adjusting for heightened risk. Add risk premiums, considering equity or industry risks. The Build-Up Method identifies specific risks, while CCA provides insights from comparable companies. Adjust the WACC, increasing costs for debt and equity. Scenario analysis considers various distress levels. Overall, it's a nuanced process, blending quantitative models and qualitative judgment to accurately reflect the company's heightened risk in distressed conditions.

📌Higher risk = higher discount rate: The higher the risk of the company not surviving or not meeting its potential, the higher the discount rate should be. 📌Cost of capital: The discount rate should reflect the opportunity cost of investing in the distressed company compared to other investment options.

When applying a discount rate for a distressed company, you need to consider your opportunity cost, and add to that the risk that the buyer is taking when trying to purchase the company, which will be a lot higher than usual. You need to take into consideration inflation (especially if the country you are investing in has high inflation or a volatile currency), cost of capital and expected return

During the risk assessment, you need to have to take a "calculated guess" on the probability of the company not achieving your expectations and just going bankrupt, and having to liquidate the company by selling the assets as salvage value. if the purchasing entity doesn't have enough liquidity and even if the distressed company has future expected profits in a few years from now, it might be unsustainable to operate with losses and you will need to consider at least one catastrophic scenario in which the company value goes to zero, and even it could go below zero if you leverage too much into debt.

Scenario-based analysis can be extremely effective in understanding the full nature of risk. By thinking through each step, you can get a strong sense of interim and long term outcomes. Scenarios can also help you see how each option might impact stakeholders.

Wrong perspective: "we could do this... or we could do that..." approaches would not work. Stick to the Business Plan and chose the best avenue to achieve it: consensual restructuring, bankruptcy, insolvency distress M&A, etc. They are means to an end, not an ultimate outcome or goal.

Avaliar diferentes cenários de dificuldade é crucial ao analisar empresas em situações desafiadoras. Esses cenários, como reestruturação, venda de ativos ou recuperação judicial, delineiam possíveis resultados do processo de reestruturação ou liquidação. A chave está em estimar a probabilidade e impacto de cada cenário, além de calcular o valor de recuperação e a taxa para os stakeholders. Prever esses desdobramentos é vital para estratégias resilientes em momentos desafiadores. #GestãoEmpresarial #CenáriosDeDificuldade #ResiliênciaEmpresarial

En un mundo económico dinámico de constantes cambios siempre se deben tener en cuenta los escenarios de riesgo asociados a la actividad económico desarrollada, intentar mediante modelos predictivos y con una alta capacidad de análisis predecir escenarios probables que puedan afectar la dinámica empresarial. Inclusive escenarios como la pandemia en 2019, permiten asociar a los modelos de riesgos variables pocos probables pero que sin día pueden afectar no solo la dinámica empresarial sino impactos económicos del orden nacional e internacional.

📌Creditors: How much are they owed? What are their priorities in terms of getting paid? 📌Shareholders: What is the likelihood of them getting anything back? What are their legal rights? 📌Employees: What happens to their jobs if the company goes bankrupt or is restructured?

Either the mean to execute a rehabilitation plan is judicial, i.e. bankruptcy, then priorities/ ranking are set by law; Or the plan is executed out-of-court, then follow the shadow of the law. In doubt, abide by the fundamental principles: favor going-concern solutions, fair burden sharing among stakeholders (particularly shareholders vs creditors), and pari pasu treatment among creditors of the same class.

Ranking stakeholders in the distressed company saga involves a nuanced dance of financial diplomacy. 1. Assess seniority, contractual rights, and recovery rates. 2. Shareholders may lead the pack, creditors follow, and employees secure their place. It's a delicate balance, ensuring each gets a slice of the value pie based on their strategic importance and bargaining power. 3. Like crafting a seating chart for a high-stakes dinner party, it requires a keen eye for detail and a strategic understanding of each stakeholder's role in the unfolding drama.

Analisar as reivindicações das partes interessadas, incluindo credores, é fundamental ao lidar com empresas em dificuldades. Desde acionistas a reguladores, cada parte tem direitos e reivindicações distintas sobre o valor da empresa, influenciados por antiguidade, prioridade e acordos contratuais. A alocação desse valor entre elas demanda identificação e classificação criteriosas, considerando taxas de recuperação e poder de barganha. Equilibrar essas demandas é essencial para estratégias de reestruturação equitativas e resilientes. #GestãoEmpresarial #PartesInteressadas #Reestruturação

Il faut parfois faire des mises à jour dans ce que veulent les parties prenantes, parce que parfois tout le monde se rend pas compte de la réalité, ainsi en existant dans des réalités différentes nous n’avons pas la même vision des problèmes… C’est quoi remettre à jour et à plat sur la table les défis actualisés auquel il face votre entreprise peut générer une meilleure compréhension de la part des parties prenantes, et je parle bien de toutes les parties prenantes… il faut se dire que ils ne veulent pas votre mal, il pensent juste à leur bien

📌Uncertainty: Predicting the future performance of a distressed company is difficult. 📌Limited information: Distressed companies may not have accurate or complete financial information. 📌Lack of comparable companies: Finding similar companies to compare the distressed company to can be difficult.

Valorar una empresa en crisis demanda análisis preciso: estados financieros, deuda, flujo de efectivo y estrategia. Identificar oportunidades de recapitalización y gestionar riesgos son cruciales. El plan de accion puede ser el siguiente: 1. Reestructurar deuda. 2. Optimizar costos operativos. 3. Diversificar ingresos. 4. Atraer inversores estratégicos. 5. Mejorar gobernanza. 6. Comunicación transparente a stakeholders.

The valuation and the future performance of distressed companies is a tricky element due to several factors: - The legal security of the country where the company is established and the one of those countries where the company operates is an essential point to determine the potential valuation. - Uncertainty about future performance, shocks in the economy and potential changes in the company increase the difficulty of valuation. - Risk aversion or risk seeking over new investment options, business lines or production can increase the volatility of the company value and, therefore, complicate its valuation. - Finally, incomplete data is one of the most usual problems in any economic analysis as the evaluation may lack essential elements.

The economic challenges faced by a country in which the company is operating can undermine the accuracy of the company valuation.

- Comprender las causas subyacentes de las dificultades es crucial. ¿Son problemas financieros temporales o estructurales? ¿Se deben a factores internos o externos? - Examinar la estructura de la deuda y las obligaciones financieras. Evaluar si hay riesgos inminentes de incumplimiento. - Determinar el valor real de los activos de la empresa. Esto podría incluir bienes inmuebles, maquinaria e inclusive propiedad intelectual. - Analizar el potencial de recuperación. ¿Existen oportunidades de reestructuración? - Proyectar el flujo de efectivo futuro de la empresa. Es muy importante entender los aspectos legales asociados. Esto puede incluir deudas pendientes, y cumplimiento normativo. Así se podrá tener un panorama claro de la situación.

I would conduct: 1. a diagnostic of the main causes of the crisis: only liquidity? Loss of competitive positioning? Weak value proposition? Issues with the controlling shareholder (broke, litigation, reputation, succession); 2. Have good legal and financial advisors to evaluate the chance of a successful turn-aound with creditors based on their acceptance of a sustainable restructuring proposal; 3. Look at the business recovery plan based on availability of fresh capital, revenue projections, solvency of the incumbent shareholder/investor, check impact of possible assets stripping before turn-around

Financial statement analysis involves evaluating a company's financial health by examining income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. This process helps assess profitability, liquidity, and solvency. Analysts scrutinize revenue trends, cost structures, and cash flow to gauge operational efficiency and short-term obligations. By decoding financial statements, stakeholders can make informed decisions about investments and strategic planning.

Valuing distressed firms demands a holistic approach. Key considerations include debt ratios, cash reserves, and revenue streams. Examining declining gross margins, profitability issues spanning 2-3 years, and mismanagement by C-level executives is vital. Overpaying employees can exacerbate financial woes. Employing diverse valuation methods and discount rates, factoring in distress scenarios. Lastly, stakeholder claims must be weighed. This comprehensive analysis empowers informed decisions in turbulent times.

A turnaround could possibly be one of the options, however the probability is low. Apple is a pure example of tutrnaround..

Here's what else to consider: 1️⃣Regulatory environment: Can the company comply with all applicable laws and regulations? 2️⃣Litigation risk: Is the company facing any legal challenges that could affect its value 3️⃣Environmental liabilities: Could the company be responsible for any environmental cleanup costs?