Climate Action Tracker

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: in the face of a possible Trump withdrawal from the #ParisAgreement, the new #US target provides guidance for sub-national entitities like states to continue taking strong climate action. However, it's still not 1.5˚C compatible. While this new proposed NDC is an important milestone in reaching #netzero by 2050, the target of a 61–66% emissions reduction in 2035, to be #1o5C compatible US needs to reduce emissions by 80% in 2035 (incl. LULUCF), under modelled domestic pathways. Under our current policy projections, US emissions will decline, but not fast enough to reach the 2030 and newly-proposed 2035 targets: new policies will have to be implemented. We will give a more comprehensive analysis in the new year. Short analysis here bit.ly/CAT_USA_2035

ANALISIS NDC: Kebijakan iklim #Indonesia rumit & kontradiktif: adopsi #energiterbarukan lambat, masih bergantung pada #batubara, & emisi signifikan dari #deforestasi akibat kelapa sawit. Peringkat masih “Sangat tidak memadai”. https://bit.ly/CAT_INA   Kemajuan menuju ekonomi rendah karbon 🇮🇩 masih terbatas. Di bawah Presiden Prabowo, 🇮🇩 berada di persimpangan iklim. Fokus pada pertumbuhan ekonomi & swasembada harus selaras dengan pengurangan #emisi lintas sektor. Lihat Kebijakan & Aksi => https://lnkd.in/g59TWxRj   Baik target NDC (2022) maupun draft NDC 2035 (2024) tidak ambisius, mudah dicapai dgn kebijakan saat ini. Target lebih kuat, perlindungan hutan, transisi adil, & dukungan internasional sangat penting utk selaras dgn #PerjanjianParis & memaksimalkan potensi #energiterbarukan.

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Indonesia's #climate policy is complex & contradictory, with slow #renewables uptake, continued #coal reliance, & significant emissions from palm oil-driven #deforestation. Rating remains “Critically insufficient”. Front page summary: https://bit.ly/CAT_INA 🇮🇩 progress toward a low-carbon economy remains limited. Under Pres. Prabowo, 🇮🇩 stands at a climate crossroads. His focus on growth & self-sufficiency must align with reducing sector-wide #emissions. See Policies & Action for details => https://lnkd.in/g59TWxRj   Both the NDC (2022) & draft 2035 NDC (2024) set unambitious targets: 🇮🇩 can meet them under current policies. Stronger targets, forest protection, just transition plans, & international support are crucial to align with the #ParisAgreement & unlock its #renewables potential.

Análise da meta para 2035: As incertezas sobre as contribuições do setor de LULUCF para a meta do #Brasil para 2035 apresentaram um grande desafio. No entanto, nossa análise estabelece que ambas as metas apresentadas não são compatíveis com 1,5C. Veja a análise completa: https://lnkd.in/gU6ZUB-q   A meta de 59% de emissões abaixo dos níveis de 2005 (interpretada como uma meta doméstica) representa um aumento de 1 a 76% acima de 2005, excluindo LULUCF.   A meta de 67% abaixo de 2005 (interpretada como o componente internacionalmente apoiado da NDC) gera uma faixa de 21% abaixo à 55% acima dos níveis de 2005 (excluindo LULUCF).   Em ambos os casos, o nível de emissões em 2035 não está alinhado com nossos caminhos domésticos modelados compatíveis com 1,5°C. Para ser compatível com 1,5°C, o Brasil precisaria reduzir suas emissões, excluindo LULUCF, em 2035, para pelo menos 40% abaixo dos níveis de 2005 (706 MtCO2e).

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: The uncertainty around the LULUCF contribution to #Brazil's 2035 NDC poses a big challenge but ultimately, we have found its two targets are NOT #1o5C compatible. Full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gU6ZUB-q   * The 59% below 2005 target (which we interpret as a national action) would lead to an increase of 1-76% above 2005, excl. LULUCF. * The 67% below 2005 target (which we interpret as the internationally supported target) would lead to emissions 21% below to 55% above 2005 levels, excl. LULUCF.   In both cases, the emissions level in 2035 (excl. LULUCF) is not aligned with our 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways. To be 1.5°C compatible, Brazil would need to reduce its emissions excl. LULUCF in 2035 to at least 40% below 2005 levels (706 MtCO2e).

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: at COP29 the #UK announced the headline ambition of its 2035 NDC. We welcome this proposed emissions cut which wld translate to emissions below our cost-effective 1.5ºC modelled domestic pathway. However, there's some key issues to consider: Given the UK has yet to formally submit its NDC to the UNFCCC, there's still time for it to improve its NDC prior to submission: First, the UK should still revise and align its 2030 emissions targets with 1.5ºC compatible modelled domestic pathways. The UK’s 2030 target of -68% emissions reduction below 1990 is v close to the 70% cut below 1990 needed to align with these pathways. In 2023, UK emissions were estimated to already be 53% below 1990. Updating the 2030 target cld inspire other countries to revisit theirs While the 2035 GHG target aligns with cost-effective pathways limiting warming to 1.5ºC, the UK’s fair share of climate action goes far beyond what it does domestically. The UK should therefore increase the climate finance it provides for developing countries.   What matters most is action to reduce emissions in the real economy. The new UK govt has inherited a vast implementation gap: existing policies only cover 24% of reductions needed to meet the new 2035 target. Urgent action will be needed to turn this new ambition into reality. https://lnkd.in/g_pzn-bk  

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #SaudiArabia has no policies in place to cut emissions & reduce reliance on #fossilfuels. #RenewableEnergy plans fail to materialise: it has a 50% target by 2030 but has achieved 1%. Our rating remains "Critically insufficient" Summary: https://bit.ly/2EtDrSE Despite its 10 yr old “Vision 2030” diversification plan, the Saudi economy remains highly dependent on the production, use & export of hydrocarbons. Emissions projected to increase beyond 2030. Emissions fm fossil fuel exports more than 2x domestic Policies & Action page: https://lnkd.in/gjpBEZKf Saudi Arabia’s 2030 and 2060 climate commitments lack transparency, rely largely on the deployment of #CCS technologies, and fail to address concerns about its role as the world’s leading crude oil exporter. 2030 target still includes substantial exports & the Saudi get-out clause.

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Switzerland's made big strides in #climate policies, with a legally binding 2050 #netzero target & a new law supporting #renewables. But the government appears unwilling to address the recent ECHR CEDH ruling on its insufficient climate action. Switzerland has not stated how much of its NDC target it plans to achieve through domestic reductions versus offsets abroad. Its engagement in bilateral agreements to “offset” domestic emissions & lack of transparency around level of domestic emissions reduction risk setting a bad precedent This raises concerns about the country's willingness & ability to take ambitious domestic climate action needed to meet its legally binding #netzero target. We continues to rate Switzerland overall as “Insufficient”. Read more: Summary page: https://bit.ly/CAT_SUI Policies & Action: https://lnkd.in/gpjz88VZ

📣 As reported by The Japan Times and other media outlets last week, the joint governmental panel of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and Ministry of the Environment has proposed a new 2035 target of a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, below 2013 levels. This assumes a linear trajectory between Japan’s 2030 NDC target and the 2050 #netzero target. While not yet officially endorsed or submitted by the Japanese government, we find this proposed 2035 target would fall significantly short of 1.5˚C compatibility. Our recent analysis finds a reduction of at least 81% by 2035 below 2013 would be compatible with 1.5°C-aligned domestic emission reduction pathways (see figure below). This finding has formed the basis of a recent expert statement by Japanese climate scientists, academics, and activists for an ambitious 2035 target. Our analysis, which models 1.5°C-aligned pathways from 2020, shows Japan will have drifted far away by 2030 from the 1.5°C-aligned pathways. For the 2035 NDC, the Japanese government must consider the way forward to make up for the delayed action, instead of using it as an excuse for continued lack of ambition and action in the future.  The Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that the Environment Ministry prevented a member of the governmental 2035 NDC formulation committee from expressing his opinion for a more ambitious target. This highlights the issues around transparency and fairness of energy and climate policy deliberation processes in Japan. We will assess Japan’s 2035 target as part of our recently-launched 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker once officially communicated by the Japanese government. Further reading: Our recent analysis on 1.5-aligned 2035 targets for major emitters https://lnkd.in/gQ9hjY9b The Japan Times article https://lnkd.in/geVfvksJ The Joint Expert Statement by climate scientists, academics, and activists here https://lnkd.in/e77Kp4db Asahi Shimbun article (in Japanese) https://lnkd.in/gSk293Ap

"Most of these fossil-fuel-exporting countries can get to look good with their domestic climate action. Their exported emissions are someone else's problem" Bill Hare tells Valerie Volcovici in this deep dive into #fossilfuel exports, with a sad story of the pollution around Egyptian cement kilns burning US coal ... #COP29