Contrary to widespread perception, nuclear power remains irrelevant in the international market for electricity generating technologies. Solar plus storage might be the game changer for the adaptation of policy decisions to current industrial realities.
This is the overall conclusion of World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024. I was actually triggered a bit last week, by some LinkedIn posts talking about the great future of nuclear, so good to look at the facts.
Nuclear might have a role in the future energy mix, but by all facts, it's a stagnant technology that will continue to see decreasing importance due to lack of investment and closures of the aging global nuclear fleet.
So what’s the current status?
⚛ Nuclear energy’s share of global commercial gross electricity generation declined from 9.2 percent to 9.1 percent, little more than half of its peak of 17.5 percent in 1996.
What is the comparison to the build out of renewable?
☀💨 In 2023, total investment in non-hydro renewable electricity capacity reached a record US$623 billion, 27 times the reported global investment decisions for the construction of nuclear power plants. Solar and wind power capacities grew by 73 percent and 51 percent, respectively, resulting in 460 GW of combined new capacity versus a decline of 1 GW in nuclear capacity.
than nuclear plants.
🔋 Always a good reminder, last year investments into energy storage for the first time surpased investments into nuclear energy: https://lnkd.in/d6ibqKbH
What is the problem of nuclear in the west? Cost and delays.
💸 ⏳ Time and Money. In the UK: Startup of Unit 1 of Hinkley Point C is now planned for 2029–2031, with the price tag for the two units estimated at US$52.5–59.2 billion. In the US: After 11 years of construction, Vogtle-4 was connected to the grid in March 2024 with all-in costs for Vogtle-3 and -4 estimated at US$36 billion.
Are SMRs the future of nuclear? The report has a clear answer on this as well:
⚛ 💡 ⛔ The gap between hype about SMRs and industrial reality continues to grow. The nuclear industry and multiple governments are doubling down on their financial and political investments into SMRs. So far, reality on the ground does not reflect those efforts: with no design certifications, no constructions in the west, SMR projects continue to be delayed or canceled.
What is the future of energy instead: Solar + Storage!
☀ 🔋 The cost of solar plus storage is already significantly lower than nuclear power in most markets today,” as well as “highly competitive with other low-emissions sources of electricity that are commercially available today.
So what does this mean?
📢 Sure, nuclear has a role to play in the worlds energy system for now, but when we talk about the future, you should not put your money on nucelar, because numbers don't lie.