Robert Bosch Academy

The new #US administration is already generating shockwaves across the Americas. Within days of assuming office, #Trump has ramped-up the deportation of migrants, threatened a trade war with #Canada and #Mexico, called for the annexation of #Panama, and threatened to take Greenland by force. The US president has likewise criticized countries that challenge the US dollar as reserve currency and cultivate closer ties with its adversaries, especially China. The storm for US and hemispheric relations is just beginning. The Robert Bosch Academy is inviting experts from across the region to reflect on the short- and medium-term implications of the new US administration on security, politics and economics and changing alliances across North, Central and South America. Join for this very important conversation with Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Catherine Osborn, Doug Saunders, Brian Winter and Robert Muggah. ⏰ 4th March, 2025 at 4 PM (CET)/ 10 AM (EST) Register for this ONLINE event here 👉 https://lnkd.in/gpUn9ASN

The #US, #Russia, and now the #EU are haggling over #Ukraine's critical minerals and rare earths. The US had demanded "repayment" of $500 billion for military and financial aid, including full control over vast swathes of Ukraine's #mineral, #hydrocarbons, #ports and #infrastructure. Without clear financial and #security guarantees, Zelenskeyy initially rejected the US demand, noting it would take "ten generations" to pay this back. Even so, there are signs that an agreement's in the offing. Indeed, a deal may be signed as soon as the end of the week. Ominously, Russia has also indicated a desire to enter into future joint ventures. Building on research with Secdev, we worked with DER SPIEGEL on a data visualization to help better understand what's above and below Ukrainian soil (I spoke with BBC News about this today as well https://lnkd.in/dW6uFxWy). There are hundreds of billions, even trillions, in potential value, organizing the requisite financing, investment, extraction, refinement and shipment is an entirely different matter. And while it's clear that Ukraine will secure a deal to help accelerate economic entanglement and territorial sovereignty, what is less obvious is whether and how the #US (and others) will ensure security guarantees. More reporting to come in the coming days as the contours of a deal become clear. Check out the article at: https://lnkd.in/d-WU8FFK

My op ed on foreign aid: "political economists have carefully examined the conditions under which foreign aid can work to improve the lives of the poor. These are the 'micro' places to start reforming foreign aid, which are indeed necessary. Instead, Musk turned the debate into a 'macro' spectacle of surreal proportions." #Robert Bosch Academy, #George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government

Despite the challenging events and speeches at and around the Munich Security Conference this year, the Robert Bosch Academy had a small reason to look forward - an yearly gathering of some of our fellows attending the #MSC. On the sidelines of this year’s MSC, we invited our fellows who attended the conference to an informal lunch to reflect on their insights and impressions from the 61st #MSC. The shared consternation about the incisive, almost historic developments at the conference posing some serious questions about the basis and understanding of our shared values became a little palatable thanks to the warm and familiar atmosphere among the fellows. The conversations with them and their reflections on what transpired truly was inspiring. It also made evident how mammoth of a task we have cut out for ourselves going forward and that finding spaces that symbolize common ground, allow critical exchange of views will become increasingly going forward. Here are some key takeaways 👉 📌 We find ourselves in a political climate characterized by an age of turbulence, upheaval of the established #globalorder, rejection of the status quo of all kind. 📌The recent developments in U.S. politics, transatlantic relations and European security serve as a stark reminder of the fragility and inertia of our global system. 📌While there is a sense of awareness and solidarity in Europe, we must acknowledge that key European states themselves are just one election away from autocratic governance. And the pressing question still remains: Will Europe be able to step up as an independent, geopolitical player? 📌 The #MSC – while trying to open up for perspectives from the so called #GlobalSouth as well as a broader understanding of security – still continues to focus primarily on traditional transatlantic security and struggles with overcoming silo mentality. 📌 The challenges in such revolutionary moments cannot be met by preserving the old or applying the logic of the past. Instead, we need a new and appealing ideas and narratives – ones that harness the power of imagination. On behalf of the Foundation and the Academy, Dr. Grzegorz Nocko, Bilal Bağ, Ottilie Bälz and Raphaela Schweiger welcomed María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, Fiona Hill, Robert Muggah, Obiageli “Oby” Ezekwesili, Ivan Krastev, Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE, Yao Yang, Stephen Heintz, Jakkie Cilliers, Orysia Lutsevych OBE, Slawomir Sierakowski for this honest, candid round of reflections. Thank you to everyone who joined in. Photo credits: Lennart Preiss

Our fellow Robert Muggah shares his insights on Ukraine's position in terms of the rare minerals and how it will play a role in a potential ceasefire in an interview with the BBC. Watch here 👇

Organized #crime is one of the most significant threats to global security. Yet our national and international responses are not remotely prepared to confront decentralized and digitally-enabled #criminal networks. We need a new global architecture for the crime control regime. These are some of the headlines from the roundtable co-hosted by Instituto Igarapé, UNODC and the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime at the 2025 Munich Security Conference. As our partners from INTERPOL and Europol, made clear, criminal networks are transnational and illicit markets are borderless yet our law enforcement efforts often remain national. They are adapting, diversifying, and metastasizing, leveraging new technologies ranging from #malware to #crypto and the dark web. Traditional policing routinely falls short. A disconcerting trend is the growing fusion of organized crime with state power. Some governments are outsourcing #intelligence, #sabotage, and even #hybrid #warfare to criminal groups. Cybercriminal gangs are launching ransomware attacks and espionage campaigns on behalf of state actors. Human trafficking rings are being weaponized to destabilize rival nations by creating migration crises. Of course governments, businesses and civil society groups are responding, albeit from different starting points and varying speeds. At least five priorities emerged from the #MSC2025 session: First, follow the #money. Illicit finance is the oxygen of organized crime. Strengthening regulatory oversight, closing offshore loopholes, strengthening anti-financial crimes units, and freezing illicit assets is essential. Second, responsibly adopt and scale use of new #technologies. AI and machine learning can enhance detection efforts and digital forensics tools are key to fighting cyber-enabled crime. Third, expose state-crime collusion. While challenging in today's fractious geopolitical environment, governments and international bodies must increase transparency, sanction state-linked actors engaged in organized crime, and strengthen accountability mechanisms. Fourth, build local #resilience. Organized crime thrives where governance is weak. Strengthening law enforcement, improving socio-economic opportunities, and redjucing corruption create fewer havens for crime. Finally, support international #cooperation. Criminal networks don’t respect borders, and neither should our response. Intelligence-sharing, joint investigations, business and civil society partnerships, and harmonized legal frameworks are essential. Thanks to partners Ghada Waly (UNODC), Mark Shaw (GTOC), Catherine De Bolle (Europol), Darrin Jones (Interpol), and speakers Daniella Misail-Nichitin (Minister of Interior, Moldova), Elmer Schialer (Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru), Arnoldo Andre - Tinoco (Minister of Foreign Affairs, Costa Rica), Misha Glenny (IWM). Credit to Daniel Brombacher and Robert Bosch Academy as well.

What does the future hold for soft power in an era of AI, misinformation, and shifting alliances? I was honored to participate in this "Our World, Connected" podcast with the brilliant Christine Wilson from British Council. There will always be Paris -- and soft power! 🤞 🤞 🤞 #George Mason University - Schar School of Policy and Government, #George Mason University, #Robert Bosch Academy

I am incredibly privileged and deeply honoured to be the first Nigerian man to receive the prestigious Richard von Weizsäcker Fellowship Award at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin. The Richard von Fellowship Weizsäcker Award was established in honour of the former German President. This extraordinary –by invitation only- programme promotes multilateral exchange and interdisciplinary cooperation on the global issues of our time, enriching socio-political discourse with a wide range of perspectives. The Fellowship particularly provides international decision-makers, opinion leaders and experts, the opportunity for solution-oriented dialogue and cooperation on issues of global relevance. Fellows are provided logistical support, the intellectual as well as physical space to pursue individual projects on future-oriented topics in an international context. For my fellowship project, aimed at strengthening democracy and addressing emerging global challenges, “I will interrogate models and approaches for creating an institutional framework for strengthening legislative leadership and enhancing parliamentary diplomacy in Africa, especially drawing on German and European parliamentary experiences and global best practices.” This year, I have the distinct honour of joining four extraordinary and inspirational leaders in my cohort: 1) H.E. Natalia Gavrilița - former Prime Minister of Moldova, and now Co-founder and Director of Partnerships at ‘New Economy’, a new economic policy think-tank focused on Moldova's EU integration. 2) Sir Mark Lowcock – former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs; former UN Emergency Relief Coordinator and also previously the Permanent Secretary of the UK Department for International Development (DFID). 3) H.E. Bert Koenders - former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands; former Special Envoy of the World Bank on fragile states; President of the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs and currently, Chair in Peace, Security, and Law at Leiden University. 4) Dr. Robert Muggah- a researcher, entrepreneur and practitioner who specialises in physical, digital and climate security and works extensively on issues related to urban planning, forced migration, climate and nature solutions, with an impactful professional footprint spanning management consulting firms like McKinsey and multilateral institutions like the UN, World Bank, amongst several others. I look forward to an enriching time 'fellowshiping' with these extraordinary Fellows, thinking, debating & being inspired by the lessons-learnt,  engaging interactions and insightful exchanges with top leaders in government, academia, civil society, the RvW Fellows Community & the exceptionally talented leadership & staff at the RBA. To know more about the Robert Bosch Academy and its Richard von Weizsäcker Fellowship, please explore its rich and insightful website by clicking on my link.

This week I had a pleasure to join Natalia Gavrilița and Ricardo Giucci for an insightful discussion on #Moldova, moderated by my colleague Jan Stöckmann. I focused on #hybridthreats, as 2024 is another critical year for Moldova. With Parliamentary #elections ahead and Russia’s ongoing destabilization campaigns, we must prepare for disruptions at all levels. The 2025 #energy crisis in Transnistrian region will likely be instrumentalized for political leverage. While Russia is losing its grip on Moldova, especially after its energy decoupling, this only raises the stakes. Moscow will do everything possible to maintain its influence. For more on the energy crisis in #Transnistria, check out my latest piece for the Center for European Policy Analysis: 🔗 Transnistria Suffers Russia’s Tough Love: https://lnkd.in/dXWitsvg German Council on Foreign Relations, Robert Bosch Academy photos: Robert Bosch Academy / Anita Back

Together the with German Council on Foreign Relations, we hosted an event yesterday with our fellow Natalia Gavrilița, Anastasia Pociumban and Ricardo Giucci to discuss Moldova's EU Aspirations. Some key points that were raised: 📌 #Moldova can be an important security and resilience provider to the #EU. Despite a lot of challenges like inflation, energy crisis etc. that came in the wake of the war, Moldova has been quite resilient. 📌The onset of the war led to the biggest influx of refugees into Moldova - it took in 5 times more refugees than the #UNHCR thought Moldova could handle.  📌The impact of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine and the ensuing peace process will be massive for Moldova, including its accession plans.    📌If a part of the peace process negotiations is that #Ukraine joins the EU by 2030, then there are probably two credible options for Moldova: it becomes Kaliningrad (kind of a Russian exclave) or it moves into the EU with Ukraine. The EU should be very careful in securing a place as a negotiator at the table during the peace process.  📌The accession of Moldova and Ukraine into the EU is very different from the previous accession processes and there seems to be less understanding of this at the EU bureaucracy level. 📌It is important to think of transition mechanisms, tiered accession or gradual accession to certain benefits of the EU membership for Ukrainians and Moldovans allowing the people to get familiar with the EU, the benefits of being with the EU. A swift adoption of EU directives to expedite the accession may lead to anti-EU sentiment, discontent amongst the people and potentially the ousting of democratic governments in some places.  📌 The biggest challenge for Moldova are the upcoming parliamentary elections later this year which are quiet important from the Russian perspective. Russia fears that it has lost its influence on Moldova compared to what it used to be and is focused on consolidating its power on the ground.  📌 The Moldovan government estimates that 40 Million Euros have been invested to undermine Moldovan democracy. 📌 Russia's interference techniques and approaches have evolved quickly to manipulate electoral outcomes, while the EU and non EU members have not been able to keep up with it.  📌 Russia will act as a disrupting power in the upcoming elections by investing in the opposition politicians and different parties and it is difficult to trace the extent of their involvement. They will certainly try to influence the outcomes of the elections. 📌 Fair elections will play an important role in keeping the EU Accession process credible. 📌Considering that the EU Accession process may get compromised if there is a non-democratic government in place, the upcoming elections are key for the pro-EU democratic parties. Thank you to our partners and dedicated audience who joined us.