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Trump just can't afford to ditch H-1B visas. No matter what the debate is.

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ET OnlineLast Updated: Jan 14, 2025, 03:26:00 PM IST

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Synopsis

The H-1B visa program is crucial for the US to address its tech and manufacturing workforce shortages, with predicted gaps of 1.2 million tech workers by 2026 and 1.9 million manufacturing jobs by 2033. Reducing H-1B visas risks economic disruption and weakened technological innovation.

Loomer Vs Musk: Why Trump’s MAGA base is up in arms over H-1B visa | 5 things to know

As the United States grapples with a severe workforce shortage, particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors, the H-1B visa program has become a critical pillar for sustaining economic growth and innovation. With a predicted shortfall of 1.2 million tech workers by 2026 and nearly 1.9 million manufacturing jobs expected to remain unfilled by 2033, experts warn that reducing or eliminating H-1B visas could exacerbate these challenges.

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Why H-1B visas matter

The H-1B visa program enables US companies to hire skilled foreign workers in specialized fields such as technology, engineering, and healthcare. These workers fill critical gaps created by a lack of domestic talent, with key industries like artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data analytics, and semiconductor manufacturing relying heavily on foreign expertise.

A report by Oxford highlights that US universities produce 1.7 lakh fewer computer science graduates annually than required to meet demand. With 66% to 90% of employers reporting struggles in finding skilled workers, foreign talent under H-1B visas has been indispensable in bridging this gap.

The economic stakes for US

The US tech sector is growing at twice the rate of the overall workforce, with replacement rates for tech jobs requiring 350,000 workers annually through 2034. Meanwhile, manufacturing roles increasingly demand software and data analytics skills, areas where domestic talent supply falls short.

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Experts warn that failing to address this shortfall could disrupt critical industries, slow technological advancements, and erode the country’s economic competitiveness. Immigration, driven largely by programs like H-1B, has been the primary contributor to US labor force growth since 2019.

The political dilemma

While former President Donald Trump’s administration aimed to overhaul the H-1B system, citing concerns over job competition and wage suppression, the economic realities paint a different picture. A reduction in H-1B visas risks widening the skills gap, undermining business operations, and hindering innovation in sectors crucial to national and global leadership.

To remain competitive, the US must balance domestic workforce development with strategic immigration policies. Programs like the H-1B visa are not merely a stopgap measure but a vital component of sustaining the nation’s economic engine.

For leaders in Washington, the message is clear: the cost of ditching H-1B visas is one the US simply cannot afford.

In Video: Loomer Vs Musk: Why Trump’s MAGA base is up in arms over H-1B visa | 5 things to know