Quels sont les modèles économiques utilisés pour analyser les effets de la fiscalité ?

Analyzing the effects of taxation involves various economic models. The Classical model emphasizes supply-side factors, positing that tax cuts stimulate investment and economic growth. The Keynesian model, on the other hand, emphasizes demand-side effects, suggesting that tax changes impact consumer spending and overall demand. The Laffer Curve illustrates the relationship between tax rates and government revenue, suggesting an optimal tax rate for maximizing revenue. Dynamic scoring models account for behavioral changes in response to tax policy shifts.

Taxes create a wedge between what buyers pay and what sellers receive: thus they typically imply that the equilibrium quantity being exchanged would shrink, with negative effects on overall welfare. This is the case, because this wedge would translate into a positive differences between the marginal benefit of a good (as it is embedded in the demand curve) and the marginal cost of that good (as embedded in the supply curve). Partial equilibrium analysis informs us that this inefficient decrease in equilibrium quantity being sold is null if the either the demand or supply curve is rigid. Morevor, the burden of the tax is imposed on the side of the market that is more rigid, since it would be less inclined to change behavior once taxed.

Sharing a quick insight from my experience with partial equilibrium models in tax analysis. While these models provide valuable insights into specific markets, they should be approached cautiously. Taxation doesn't act in isolation; its effects are intertwined with other government policies like monetary, trade, and regulatory measures. To truly understand the impact of taxation, we must consider the broader economic context. Partial equilibrium models, though useful, may miss the intricate interplay of factors at the macroeconomic level. We must remember that in the complex symphony of economic policies, each note contributes to the overall melody.

Economists use various models to analyze taxation effects. The Laffer Curve shows an optimal tax rate for maximum revenue without hindering growth. The Harberger Model estimates the efficiency loss due to taxes. Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models assess long-term tax policy impacts. The Ramsey Model seeks an optimal tax system minimizing distortions. The Classical model posits tax cuts boost investment and growth, while the Keynesian model focuses on tax impacts on consumer spending and demand. Dynamic scoring models predict behavioral changes from tax policies. These models collectively help understand taxation's complex effects on the economy and welfare.

Partial equilibrium models are one way economists analyze the effects of taxation. These models focus on a specific sector or market, like the market for cars or cigarettes, instead of looking at the whole economy. They help us understand how a tax change in one area affects things like prices, production, and consumer demand in that specific market. For example, if the government increases taxes on cigarettes, a partial equilibrium model can show us how this might lead to higher cigarette prices and possibly less demand for them. This kind of model is useful for analyzing tax policies on specific goods or services.

🌐General Equilibrium Models for Tax Analysis 📊 When it comes to tax policy, precision in analysis is key. General equilibrium (GE) models stand out as a powerful tool for this purpose. Here’s why: 1. Comprehensive Impact Assessments- GE models examine how tax changes affect all sectors of an economy—households, businesses, and government—and the interactions between them. 2. Policy Simulation:These models enable economists to simulate the effects of tax policies before implementation, helping policymakers anticipate outcomes and adjust strategies. 3. International Comparisons:Given the interconnectedness of economies, GE models are invaluable for studying the cross-border impact of tax changes and harmonizing policies.

General equilibrium models are useful when we want to ensure that we are not reliant on the biases of historical data to evaluate policy. Although these models are certainly sensitive to inputs (often calibrated parameters and other assumptions), they are one way in which we might address the Lucas critique and attempt to incorporate models of human behavior.

Incidence. GEMs allow for understanding how tax burdens are passed through from where the tax is applied to whom actually bears the burden of the tax. For example, property taxes are applied to titleholders, however such taxes are paid fractionally by residential tenants or by patrons of businesses in commercial real estate applications . What form the tax structure put in place versus who ends up paying the tax are questions that require rich models with realistic sector designs that capture input output flows in a manner that provides clarity to policymakers so they can understand the consequences of their policy proposals

GEM is a good tool to analyze the effects of taxation as it represents the entire economy and it is interconnected to reflect how changes in one sector can affect others.

General equilibrium models are a key tool for understanding how taxes affect the whole economy. Unlike models that look at just one market or sector, these models consider everything - how changes in taxes impact not just prices and demand in one area, but across all markets. For example, if the government raises income taxes, a general equilibrium model can help predict how this might affect spending, saving, and investment across different industries. It's like a big-picture view, showing how all the different parts of the economy are connected and how a change in one area can ripple through the rest.

Dynamic models help us how to predict more systematically the effects of taxation over time through loops and feedbacks. More over, by using some existing periodic data combined with the big data, dynamic models could simulate and anticipate certain disruptions. For example, dynamic models are very powerful to guide the economists and economic stakeholders to rapidly make a good public policy on how to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 to the national economy. Furthermore, dynamic models could verify and falsify if the tax policy will become an inhibitor or a catalyst to a disruptive business environment, as we have seen and experienced during the pandemic COVID-19. This is also one of the secrets to recover faster and stronger.

DSGE models are used to analyze the impact of various economic shocks, including changes in taxation, on the overall economy. They consider the interactions between different sectors and agents in the economy.

It is important to capture the inter-temporal dynamics to have an assessment of the timing of any impacts. But one should keep in mind that this also increases model complexity.

Dynamic models are in general superior to the static one. Likewise, general equilibrium models provide more comprehensive results than the partial equilibrium, in general. I guess that the state of the art now is shifted toward heterogeneous dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, which is more micro-data-intensive than the previous genearations of macroeconomic models. It’s a good time to be an economist.

Tax models must incorporate dynamics. You cannot hope to understand economic activity in a country without some basic dynamics, such as human and physical capital accumulation. Human capital is especially poorly modeled in dynamic economies, in part because we're struggling to understand how it even evolves due to measurement issues. Nevertheless, there are too many models that produce meaningless results and filled with too many caveats and assumptions to be useful.

Some microeconomic empirical models may be relevant, using data to estimate the expected behavioral response to taxation. Analyze how changes in taxes affect specific group of individuals on their decisions to participate in the labor force, decisions to save or to invest in different financial instruments. Similarly, these models help to evaluate the impact on Business, particular SMEs decision on investment, hiring and overall operations. In developing countries microeconomic empirical models also help to access at what extend changes in tax policy reduce or increase the size of informal economy.

The most straightforward way to think about behavioral models is to view them as departures from the benchmark of full rationality, either because individuals make systematic mistakes (e.g., they are myopic) or because emotions push them to act as they do. For example, individuals might deal differently with earnings vs losses or -within a game theoretic setting- they might want to reciprocate the behavior of other players (by being grateful or vengeful). All these departures from rationality can be fruitfully applied to taxation, but probably the most interesting one is the idea of salience, i.e., taxpayers react differently to taxes as a function of whether they are immediately visible or "hidden" in the gross price (Chetty et al 2009).

Behavioral models are good ways of exploring why traditional theoretical models may not line up with realized data. While experimental data are not always easily generalizable, adjusting parameters based on known behavioral biases can improve the accuracy of the theoretical model. For example, a solution to the "Equity Premium Puzzle" (the failure of classical macro and financial economic models to explain the higher-than-plausible risk premiums implicit in equity retuens) was proposed by Bernartzi and Thaler in the form of "myopic loss aversion" (rather than the constant risk aversion of classical models). In this framework, those who evaluate their losses more frequently are or become more risk-averse than those who 'set and forget'.

In my 2020 paper, I presented the "Shadow Effect" theory, examining the link between high tax rates and increased tax evasion, particularly by semi-informal businesses. This approach used econometric models to quantitatively analyze how taxpayers might inflate expenses to lower tax liabilities. It suggests that tax rates should be thoughtfully adjusted, taking into account their potential influence on tax evasion behaviors and the overall tax revenue. The aim was to help policymakers understand and balance tax rates and tax evasion, advocating for nuanced tax policies considering their impact on evasion and revenue.

Taxation may not always affect agent behaviour; in the example provided on taxing tobacco products and its effect on smoking, taxing does not necessarily reduce smoking due to inelastic demand and other psychological factors. With reference to the example, one alternative of reducing smoking is a combination of efficient nudging and taxation.

🖥️ Simulation Models: Unpacking Tax Policy Effects 📊 When shaping taxation strategies, simulation models are indispensable tools for economists and policymakers. Here's how they're making an impact: 1. Microsimulation Models: By analyzing individual-level data, these models predict how changes in tax policy might affect income distribution, tax burdens, and revenue generation. 2. Macrosimulation Models: These models assess the broader economic implications of tax changes, including GDP growth, employment, and inflation, providing a macroeconomic forecast to guide policy decisions. Simulation models translate theoretical tax proposals into concrete projections, helping to craft policies that drive growth, equity, and fiscal stability.

Simulation models potential showstoppers: 🪩🛑 1: Data Precision - Accurate, current data is 🔑 to making informed decisions and steering clear of potential pitfalls. 🚀💡 2: Dynamic Economic Dynamics - Adaptable models keep the adventure real-time, ensuring relevance and accuracy in the face of potential challenges. 🌟 3: Interconnected Economic Variables – Ensuring coherence in modeling helps us avoid potential hiccups and creates a seamless economic masterpiece. 🧩✨ 4: Collaborative Model Refinement! Economists, policymakers, and data experts join forces, refining models to overcome potential issues and make taxation simulations a thrilling, accurate adventure! 🦸♂️🦸♀️ #EconomicsAdventure #SimulationModels #TaxationInsights

I think more organisations should be aiming to improve the quality of behavioural effects in microsimulation models (very difficult) and getting the microsimulation models to interact with General Equilibrium models through iterative feedback loops.

Os modelos de simulação podem trazer certa utopia para a análise das políticas fiscais. Isso porque, a depender dos programas e métodos utilizados, ele pode apontar algo que seja inviável ou improvável de ser implementado em certa sociedade. É necessário levar em consideração as expectativas e as vontades da sociedade para se aplicar uma política fiscal e fazer a análise de seu impacto. Assim sendo, a depender do momento vivido pela sociedade, por mais que a política seja boa, ela poderá trazer efeitos negativos. Talvez, um dos problemas do modelo de simulação seja desconsiderar as subjetividades do ser humano.

Oracle Crystal Ball is great for this. However deciding on the appropriate distribution will be as important a driver as the underlying data.

As a climate economist we tend to utilize economics accounts database in conjunction with environmental supply-use tables to identify the impacts of carbon taxation on the economy and the consumers. This approach helps to identify overall impact as well as which sectors are most affected by the carbon taxation. Further diving into the topic, more complex models such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models can project longer term impacts of taxation (or any other price mechanism or policy) by adjusting consumer/industry choices by substituting away from expensive inputs towards relatively cheaper production. Carbon price is a major mechanism that raises the cost of certain activities in favour of green alternatives.

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models: CGE models take the principles of general equilibrium analysis a step further by incorporating numerical data and computational techniques. These models simulate the effects of tax changes in a detailed and quantifiable manner. They consider multiple sectors, agents (consumers, producers), and factor markets. By doing so, CGE models allow economists to estimate the quantitative impacts of tax policies on variables like production, consumption, and prices. Essentially, CGE models provide a numerical framework to assess the broader economic consequences of tax adjustments.

Some of the economic models used to analyze the effects of taxation include the Laffer Curve, which shows the relationship between tax rates and government revenue, and the supply-side economics model, which argues that lower taxes can stimulate economic growth. Other models include the Keynesian model, which suggests that government spending can stimulate the economy, and the neoclassical model, which focuses on the efficiency of tax policies in resource allocation.

A model’s output depends on the assumptions the modeler makes. Regardless of the model used, modelers and analysts should be as transparent as they can be about the assumptions the model is built on. All models need parameters to guide them so making assumptions is not wrong, but transparency allows others to provide feedback, add information, or make alternative assumptions that could lead to different results. This process is important for exploring the range of outcomes that are possible and allows the consumers of the model’s results to act with more confidence.

Choosing an economic model for tax analysis balances goals, data needs, and model strengths. Partial Equilibrium Models suit small markets but overlook broader impacts. General Equilibrium Models offer comprehensive insights but require extensive data. Dynamic Models are ideal for long-term analysis but are data-intensive. Behavioral Models analyze taxpayer reactions, adding realism but are complex to calibrate. Simulation Models allow versatile scenario testing but need significant computational resources. The right model depends on the analysis goal, data availability, and the particular advantages each model presents, ensuring effective tax impact evaluation.