Comment gérez-vous les modèles de demande?

We need to understand demand patterns in context to organization and the business. The knowledge of how the business works and what are the critical areas which have impact and dependence on capacity, is imperative. It is important to collect forecast data from various departments, which may require understanding how the department works, the peaks and the lows. From the historic data and trends we need to prepare a baseline and put the forecast in relation to that baseline.

In 15+ years of forecasting demand, myself + my teams are always wrong. We may miss the mark by 2% or by 50%. That new print in the #1 MuuMuu on Amazon might be selling 2x better than planned. That new Christmas candy at Williams-Sonoma is selling out in 3 weeks when we thought we had 10 weeks of supply. You must carve out time in the process to reforecast as you get a sales read. Don't fall into the "set it + forget it" mentality of planning. Make time in the workflow to reforecast.

Resulta útil el trabajo interdisciplinaria entre las áreas, para construir y sobre todo entender los patrones de la demanda. Clave recordar que todo proceso y categoría tienen peculiaridades propias que requieren entendidas, para que sean consideradas adecuadamente dentro de los procesos de planificación.

In this regard, you need to calculate the demand planning accuracy (DPA) simply by comparing the given forecast from the sales team vs. the actual lifting or sales done at a particular time interval like weekly or fortnightly. This will help you understand the SKU wise sales pattern and seasonality of all SKUs and also helps in SKU rationalization to give high importance to A- category items instead of some C- category once.

The best way to collaborate and communicate with in cross functional teams about current demand pattern is to have an S&OP meeting ( sales and operational planning ) led by the planning team to keep all stake holders on board and this is a very effective forum to discuss various other aspects of planning like NPD ( new product development) , product launches and rationalization of SKSs for further strategic decisions.

To manage and foresee the demand patterns, cross-functional collaboration between departments, such as marketing, sales, and operations, is essential to integrate diverse perspectives and insights.

We also need to strategically align our demand forecast with specific drivers, such as major events like the New Year and the World Cup. This involves incorporating these events into our forecasting models and implementing targeted strategies, including special promotions and marketing campaigns. We closely analyze the impact of these events on historical and current demand patterns, allowing us to continually refine our forecasting for greater accuracy. This dynamic approach ensures our demand management strategy remains adaptive and responsive to the ever-changing factors influencing consumer demand.

This is highly critical for the planning team especially in the FMCG sector with fast paced items on a daily basis, like food &beverages, grocery stuffs and others where demand pattern is not so steady and the nature of the product is also fragile like short shelf life. I worked in the bread industry and dealt with a very short shelf life product (bread). so, in cases like these , we have to be flexible and quick in decision making to cater market demand.