Comment utilisez-vous les prévisions et la planification de scénarios pour préparer le budget de votre projet à différentes situations?

Forecasting in general is predicting future events or in this case cash flow. You want to know what you're on track for so you can adjust along the way with a solid base line to understand what you need to plan for.

Forecasting can build upon previous projects (duplicate or similar) or be built from scratch. Deciding how to inform your forecast is critical. Building a forecast upon projects that are very different can create wildly innacurate estimates. Yet building from scratch can also involve more rigor and detail than is needed for the specific state of the project. For example, at the initiation/business case stage forecasting will often be high level and superficial. The rigor of the forecast will often increase as the project/proposal/request is approved, and more rigorous and formal planning process begins.

When analysing the variances, it is important to understand the causal so the root issues are addressed. Focusing on the basic variance alone may not provide the required answers!! Also try and keep the forecast template consistent so it is easier to identify trends that may ompsct decision making.

Forecasting is foreseeing our financial future. It's our budget blueprint, performance compass, and risk radar. In a world of change, it's our financial crystal ball, guiding us together.

At its core, forecasting is akin to gazing into a crystal ball, but with science as its foundation. It's the art of predicting future trends based on past and present data. Rather than mere conjecture, it offers a structured glimpse into what's ahead. By employing forecasting, businesses can anticipate shifts, preparing rather than reacting, allocating resources wisely, and sidestepping potential pitfalls. It's more than just seeing the future—it's shaping it. Forecasting is not just a tool; it's a guiding light, illuminating the path to strategic decision-making and sustainable growth. Dive in, and let foresight be your compass.

Não é novidade que os aspectos tributários em relação a qualquer tipo de operações no Brasil são muito relevantes. Assim, o entendimento das regras tributárias em vigor e, o acompanhamento tempestivo e o entendimento dos principais impactos das potenciais alterações tributárias (mediante acompanhamento de debates e projetos de lei ou regulamentação de temas relevantes, em curso)são procedimentos estratégicos e essenciais para qualquer projeção ou desenvolvimento de cenários.

Very useful in business and strategic planning. Scenario planning is also often used when conducting risk analysis and formal change control processes. In the latter, scenarios and options are proposed, risks and opportunities are presented. Decision makers/governance teams then discuss the scenarios/options. Items are actioned accordingly.

Scenario planning is our map to the many possible futures, a meticulous exercise of crafting 'what-if' narratives based on diverse variables. In harmony with driver-based budgeting, it acquires a sharp focus: Driver-based Budgeting: This approach crafts budgets around key business drivers, making it agile and directly tied to operational realities. Scenario Linkage: When combined, each scenario derives its financial implications from changes in these key drivers. Flexibility: As drivers shift, both the scenario outcomes and budgets adapt, offering dynamic strategies. Harnessing these tools, businesses can navigate uncertainty with more clarity, adjusting sails efficiently in shifting financial winds.

4. Sensitivity Analysis: Conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of changes in key variables on the project budget. Identify which variables have the most significant impact on the budget and develop contingency plans to address potential risks. 5. Risk Assessment: Evaluate potential risks and uncertainties associated with each scenario, including financial risks, operational risks, and external risks. Assess the likelihood and potential impact of each risk on the project budget. 6. Budget Preparation: Based on the forecasting results and scenario analysis, develop a baseline budget for the project that reflects the most likely scenario.

Exploring project possibilities, preparing for what lies ahead, and making strategic choices. It's our compass in an uncertain world.

Traditional budgeting methods are often time-consuming and labor-intensive. They require manually entering data, creating complex formulas, and running multiple iterations. This can be a daunting task, It is worth considering the use of AI-powered budgeting tools which can automate many of those tasks thereby making it much quicker and easier to produce scenarios. It will also free up time to provide more valuable insight from the data collected.

Don't worry if you just step into the budget forecasting. Most organizations have their own budget forecasting system. In general, they forecast a new project's budget from the past projects. The business development function provides insight by providing the industry benchmarks and market conditions. Also, it is recommended to add 10% of more budget for the "emergency fund" to take care of uncertainty. Please remember that the budget can be amended every year by the progress of the projects.

7. Resource Allocation: Allocate resources based on the budget requirements for each scenario, taking into account the availability of funds, personnel, and other resources. 8. Monitoring and Review: Continuously monitor the project's progress and financial performance against the budget. Regularly review and update the budget based on changes in the project's scope, timeline, or external factors. By integrating forecasting and scenario planning into the budget preparation process, businesses can better anticipate and prepare for different potential outcomes, mitigate risks, and make more informed decisions to achieve their project goals within budget constraints.

A correct market estimate is one of the key inputs for forecast development. Another input is our estimate of expected market share that we manage to achieve during the next year. For newly established businesses, market data becomes especially crucial due to their lack of historical data, making them heavily reliant on estimates. So, market assumptions provide us opportunity to forecast our revenue. Additionally, budgeting encompasses more than just revenue and income; it also involves managing costs and considering the needs of people within the organization. So, correct forecasting is a great responsibility.

Project budget forecasting is a strategic dance of data analysis, scope definition, and continuous adaptation. It's not just about numbers, it's about crafting a financial narrative for project success.

How scenarios are presented will depend on the stakeholder group. This can involve a larger pitch deck, shorter infographics, brief overviews in project/planning artifacts, or limited to a verbal pitch (agenda item) during a governance meeting. How these are presented will depend on scope, complexity, risk, and audience.

A análise Swot é essencial no planejamento de cenários, identificando forças e fraquezas internas, e, oportunidades e ameaças externas, é possível um mapeamento eficiente e revisão de processos, contando com tecnologia e pessoas.

Averaging estimates is a common practice. Scenario planning discussions can also help validate assumptions, risks, and opportunities, further strengthening the analysis and the plans these inform.

In some cases, scenario planning can produce a range of possible future key financial figures, and this range can be used to support strategic decision-making—particularly when viewing this range beside targets/benchmarks.

In addition, the forecast and scenarios must align with the company's strategic plan, vision, mission, and values statements. Although forecasting and scenario planning often deliver a formal budget that has minimal elasticity, formal discussions of alternate scenarios and their driving opportunities/risks can make future change related discussions easier.

- Accurate Forecasting: Utilize advanced forecasting tools to predict project costs and revenues. - Scenario Analysis: Create multiple budget scenarios for different potential situations. - Technology Leverage: Employ robust budgeting software for efficient scenario modeling. - Data-Driven Decisions: Base scenarios on a blend of historical data and market trends. - Continuous Revision: Regularly update scenarios as new information emerges. - Stress Testing: Apply stress tests to evaluate budget resilience under various conditions. - Stakeholder Involvement: Engage key stakeholders in scenario planning for comprehensive insights.

1. Historical Data Analysis 2. Forecasting Revenue and Expenses. 3. Risk Identification. 4. Create Multiple Scenarios: Develop varied scenarios for a comprehensive view. 5. Sensitivity Analysis: Assess budget sensitivity to key variables. 6. Collaboration with Stakeholders. 7. Flexible Resource Allocation. 8. Contingency Planning. 9. Regular Monitoring and Updates. 10. Communication Plan. 11. Learning from Scenarios: apply insights to improve future project planning.