Vous êtes confronté à des écarts entre les rapports financiers. Comment pouvez-vous garantir des prévisions économiques précises ?

You're faced with financial report discrepancies. How can you ensure accurate economic forecasting? Ensuring accurate economic forecasting after identifying discrepancies in the financial report narrows down to tracing the reports back to its source. Going back to the source will help identify where the discrepancies emanated from and necessary adjustments can follow suite. Once that is settled, trends can be analyzed and then to the other necessary steps. In instances where the discrepancies can not be explained, expert opinions can be sought also.

Data discrepancies and revisions are a fact of life in economic and not just financial data. Use them to your advantage by collecting all vintages of data (i.e., initial release, and however many revisions there may be). Analyze them like any other time series data; e.g. importantly serial correlation. And related, and even more important, if you want to forecast an initial release (which most economists are in the business of doing), then run your model on the historical first release, not the final ones.

Persiga incessantemente as fonte de dados fidedignas. Ademais, para cada procedimento implementado na companhia deve ter uma "checagem", considerando possíveis contingências. Na prática tudo deve ser manualizado: Manual de Procedimento, Manual de Contigência e Manual de Riscos e seus possíveis Impactos. As boas práticas e técnicas de auditoria devem ser consideradas e tudo antes de chegar a contabilidade. Assim, acredito que a margem de erro reduz. Desenvolva métodos de back test e stress test para validar os dados.

Me parece muy relevante si existen diferencias o discrepancias entre informes financieros presentados lograr analizar las tendencias delos últimos trimestres o como se han comportado las ventas, gastos, costos, la utilidad y los márgenes y se pueden identificar más fácilmente patrones no establecidos y entender dónde pueden estar las diferencias.

In my view, when dealing with financial report discrepancies, trend analysis is a key tool for ensuring accurate forecasts. By focusing on historical data patterns, you can spot inconsistencies and better understand underlying trends, even when the data isn’t perfect. This approach allows you to adjust forecasts more confidently, using past trends as a reliable guide for future projections. It’s a practical way to navigate uncertainties and maintain accuracy in economic forecasting.

As ferramentas estatísitcas ajudam na compreensão do comportamento dos padrões históricos. Ao mesmo tempo ao projetar tendências faz-se necessário acrescentar modelos que contemplem os fatores aleatórios (O Cisne Negro), sabendo que não existe "bola de cristal". A utilização de fatores aleatórios na forma de "stress test" ajudam a definir estratégias de controle do risco e provisões para evitar a descontinuidade da operação. Eu sempre digo a minha equipe: Para ganhar o jogo voce deve ficar vivo no jogo.

While engaging financial experts is crucial, consider broadening your scope to include cross-disciplinary insights. Collaborate with professionals from different fields such as data scientists or market analysts to gain diverse perspectives on your financial reports. This collaborative approach can uncover hidden insights and enhance your understanding of complex financial instruments, ultimately leading to more refined economic projections.

Scenario planning should not only consider best-case and worst-case scenarios but also incorporate "what-if" analyses for various external factors. Engage stakeholders in brainstorming sessions to explore a wide range of potential outcomes. This collaborative effort fosters creativity and prepares your organization to adapt swiftly to unforeseen events, ensuring your forecasts remain resilient and flexible.

Establish a structured framework for continuous review that includes regular check-ins and updates to your forecasts. Create a feedback loop where insights from recent performance are integrated back into your forecasting models. This iterative process allows your organization to remain agile, adapting forecasts in response to evolving economic conditions and ensuring ongoing relevance and accuracy.

Leverage cutting-edge technology not just for automation but also for advanced predictive analytics. Invest in tools that offer machine learning capabilities to enhance your forecasting accuracy. Additionally, ensure that your team is equipped with data visualization software that simplifies complex data sets, facilitating better decision-making. Embracing technology empowers your organization to focus on strategic initiatives rather than getting bogged down by data inconsistencies.