𝗜𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗮, 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 – 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝗯𝗮𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻?
In a previous post, I shared insights on Bundesliga 2 season tickets, particularly the trend of increasing the number of tickets distributed before the season starts. Now, with the Bundesliga about to kick off this Friday and 3. Liga already in full swing, it's time to broaden the perspective.
In the slide below, I share data for 54 out of 56 clubs. On average, about 54% of all available home seats in German professional football are occupied by season ticket holders—if they show up. Interestingly, Bundesliga leads the way with around 65% of home tickets sold as season tickets before the season even begins. Here, 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗴 (about 80%; rank 2), 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗸𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗻 (79%; 3), and 𝗕𝗼𝗰𝗵𝘂𝗺 (77%; 5) have distributed the most season tickets relative to their home capacity. Meanwhile, 𝗗𝗮𝗿𝗺𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗱𝘁 (81%; 1) and 𝟭𝟴𝟲𝟬 𝗠𝘂̈𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗻 (78%; 4) also make the Top 5. In absolute terms, 𝗗𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗱 tops the list with 55,000 season tickets sold (75%; 6). In contrast, 𝗕𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗠𝘂̈𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗻 distributes significantly fewer season tickets (38,000; 56%).
This raises an interesting question: Is distributing such a high share of tickets early on a smart strategy, especially when demand appears strong?
The answer, as always, is nuanced.
On the one hand, selling many season tickets presents challenges. German season ticket holders often miss three to four matches per season and typically arrive later, spending less on-site. Additionally, these tickets usually come with significant discounts, leading to smaller profit margins.
However, survey research indicates that season ticket holders often buy these tickets to feel close to the club and support it financially, not necessarily to attend every game. Consequently, reducing the number of season tickets might not result in selling the same number of matchday tickets. As such, the true demand for attendance, as suggested by season ticket sales, might be overestimated—potentially by a significant margin.
Most ticket executives in the Bundesliga, Bundesliga 2, and 3. Liga are likely aware of this and might prefer the guaranteed income from season tickets over the potentially higher, but less certain, margins from matchday sales.
In this context, the relatively high share of season tickets in the Bundesliga could be seen as a cautious strategy—executives might be playing it safe, possibly expecting lower demand.
To me, this is, therefore, a warning sign.
What do you think? Is this trend beneficial for the clubs in the long run, or could it signal underlying concerns about attendance demand?
