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Identifying the Vulnerable to Poverty from Natural Disasters: The Case of Typhoons in the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Skoufias

    (The World Bank)

  • Yasuhiro Kawasoe

    (The World Bank)

  • Eric Strobl

    (University of Bern)

  • Pablo Acosta

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper builds on the existing literature assessing retrospectively the quantitative effects of natural disasters on different dimensions of household welfare, to make progress towards the ex-ante identification of households that are vulnerable to poverty due to natural disasters, especially typhoons. A wind field model for the Philippines is employed to estimate local wind speeds at any locality where a tropical typhoon directly passes over or nearby. The estimated wind speeds are merged with the household Family Income and Expenditure Surveys at the barangay level, and consumption expenditures are then regressed against wind speed (or a related damage index) and household socioeconomic characteristics. The estimated coefficients from the regression model are then used to estimate ex-ante household vulnerability to poverty (the likelihood that household consumption falls below the poverty line) in the event of future natural disasters of different intensities.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Skoufias & Yasuhiro Kawasoe & Eric Strobl & Pablo Acosta, 2020. "Identifying the Vulnerable to Poverty from Natural Disasters: The Case of Typhoons in the Philippines," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 45-82, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:4:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-020-00059-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-020-00059-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skoufias,Emmanuel & Strobl,Eric & Tveit,Thomas Breivik, 2017. "Natural disaster damage indices based on remotely sensed data: an application to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8188, The World Bank.
    2. Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
    3. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    4. Mauricio Gallardo, 2018. "Identifying Vulnerability To Poverty: A Critical Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1074-1105, September.
    5. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
    6. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, March.
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    2. Marcos Vinício Wink Junior & Lucas G. Santos & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro & Carolina S. Trindade, 2024. "Natural disasters and poverty: evidence from a flash flood in Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 23795-23816, September.
    3. Jessie Ruth Schleypen & Charlotte Plinke & Tobias Geiger, 2024. "The Impacts of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events and Associated Precipitation on Household Income and Expenditures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 197-233, July.

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