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Contribution sur la valeur ajoutée : emplois à tout prix ?

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Abstract

À l'occasion des voeux présidentiels prononcés en janvier 2006, le Président Jacques Chirac a souhaité que le gouvernement engage une réflexion sur l'opportunité d'une réforme du financement de la Sécurité sociale qui s'appuierait sur une base autre que les salaires. Dans un contexte de chômage élevé, la persistance des déficits sociaux nécessite en effet d'élargir le financement de besoins croissants en matière de protection sociale. L'instauration de la CSG dès 1999 s'inscrivait dans cette démarche, mais le dispositif trouve aujourd'hui ses limites. L'instauration d'une Cotisation sur la Valeur Ajoutée (CVA) est une option radicale modifiant le financement de la Sécurité sociale et qui répond à la double problématique d'une base plus large pour le financement et d'un effet positif en matière d'emploi. Le principe de la réforme consisterait à créer une nouvelle cotisation assise directement sur la valeur ajoutée en contrepartie d'une baisse des cotisations sociales employeurs. La CVA serait en moyenne neutre pour les entreprises mais induirait une modification du coût relatif entre le capital et le travail au profit de ce dernier. L'objet de cet article est de participer à la réflexion et au débat sur le sujet en proposant une évaluation macroéconomique des effets de la CVA. À partir de l'estimation de fonctions de demande de facteurs, nous simulons l'impact de l'instauration de la CVA en fonction de la valeur de l'élasticité de substitution entre le travail et le capital. Nous complétons ensuite l'analyse en identifiant les transferts entre secteurs qui seraient induits par la réforme et en évaluant l'hypothèse que la CVA pénaliserait plus fortement les secteurs exportateurs. L'article revient finalement sur les difficultés auxquelles pourrait se heurter l'instauration de la CVA. Nous montrons que le dispositif permettrait de créer 130 000 emplois au bout de quatre ans et qu'il ne pénaliserait pas particulièrement les entreprises exportatrices. Parmi les inconvéni
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  • Xavier Timbeau & Christophe Blot & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2006. "Contribution sur la valeur ajoutée : emplois à tout prix ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-21, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0621
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    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2006-21.pdf
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1646 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2000. "35 heures : réduction réduite," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 53-95.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henri Sterdyniak, 2012. "Compétitivité, le choc illusoire... Faut-il réformer le financement de la protection sociale ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024671, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l5689g62n is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mireille Elbaum, 2011. "Le financement de la protection sociale : quelles perspectives au-delà des solutions miracles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l5689g62n is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l5689g62n is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l5689g62n is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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