AC Agarwal

The stock market has been brutal this week. The indices have fallen nearly 3%. Now, the Nifty 50 Index is down more than 15% from its all-time high. Below is a 2-minute weekly market update covering the sector in focus for the near term. Follow AC Agarwal for more weekly market updates!

🚨 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 29 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 🚨 The Nifty 50 Index has closed negative for 5 months straight. This is the worst selling in 29 years and the longest losing streak since the Nifty 50 Index was established in 1996. 𝐍𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐭 5 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬: Oct’24: -6.22% Nov’24: -0.31% Dec’24: -2.02% Jan’25: -0.58% Feb’25: -5.89% A losing streak of this magnitude is rare. The Nifty last endured five consecutive months of decline between July and November 1996. Before that, its longest slide stretched for eight months, from September 1994 to April 1995. 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐚𝐥𝐥-𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡: Nifty 50: -15.8% Sensex: -14.9% Nifty Bank: -11.2% Nifty 500: -19.1% Nifty MidCap 150: -21.2% Nifty SmallCap 250: -25.9% Most large-cap stocks are down 30-40%, while some small-cap stocks are down more than 50% from their all-time highs. After breaking the support of 22,800, the Nifty slid down due to geopolitical tensions, Trump’s tariff policies, and the continuous selling of FIIs. Technically, the next near-term support is 21,800. What do you think about the recent fall in the market? Follow AC Agarwal for more market insights!

When you think of UltraTech Cement, buildings and infrastructure probably come to mind. But what if the company is about to rewrite its playbook? The Aditya Birla Group's flagship company just made a bold move that sent its stock tumbling - announcing a ₹1,800 crore investment in the wires and cables segment. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠? UltraTech Cement plans to set up a wires and cables plant in Bharuch, Gujarat, by December 2026. The company sees this as an opportunity to become a "comprehensive Building Solutions provider" by leveraging its manufacturing expertise and customer connections. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 The wires and cables industry is no small player. With a projected 13% CAGR and promising export opportunities, UltraTech is eyeing a slice of a potentially lucrative market. However, analysts are cautiously optimistic. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐞 Here's the interesting part - the C&W industry is highly fragmented. The largest player commands less than 18% market share, which means there's plenty of room for new entrants. UltraTech's entry could potentially accelerate the shift from unorganised to organised markets. 𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 While exciting, this move is expected to contribute less than 5% to the total industry in FY28. Brokerage firms like Nuvama and Jefferies see this as a modest expansion, with Jefferies even suggesting any stock price dip could be a buying opportunity. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 Citi raises an interesting point - this move might dilute UltraTech's positioning as a pure-play cement company. The ₹1,800 crore investment represents about 13% of the company's expected free cash flow in the next two years. 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐈𝐭 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤? The jury is still out. With a potential revenue of around ₹1,200 crore (roughly 14% of estimated FY27 revenue), this could be a calculated risk. The success will depend on UltraTech's ability to navigate a complex, competitive market. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Can a cement giant successfully cement its place in the wires and cables market? Only time will tell. Follow AC Agarwal for more business updates!

When global giants eye a market, everyone sits up and takes notice. The latest buzz? Tesla's potential India debut and the government's reported plans to roll out the red carpet – but not everyone's cheering. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠? Global brokerage HSBC has raised a red flag over the government's proposed EV policy changes. The potential plan? Lowering import duties on electric vehicles could dramatically reshape India's automotive landscape. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠? Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent meeting with Elon Musk seems to have accelerated discussions. The proposed 15% import duty on EVs stands in stark contrast to the 43-50% GST on locally manufactured internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. It's like offering a VIP pass to foreign automakers while local manufacturers navigate a complex toll road. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭? Currently, India imports only around 8,000 EVs annually. But this policy could be a game-changer. HSBC warns it might create long-term investment concerns for domestic automakers. Other international brokerages like CLSA and Nomura have their takes – some cautiously optimistic, others more measured. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐨𝐧𝐞? Different analysts are reading the tea leaves differently. CLSA suggests Tesla's entry might drive market premiumization rather than disrupt established players like Maruti Suzuki or Tata Motors. Nomura sees the policy as potentially fast-tracking EV adoption and improving charging infrastructure. 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐭 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤? Here's the catch – Tesla would need local manufacturing to truly scale. Even with reduced import duties, pricing vehicles affordably remains a challenge. A sub-Rs 25 lakh model sounds exciting, but the logistics are complex. 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 India's EV market is like a high-stakes chess game. The government is moving pieces, global automakers are calculating their next move, and domestic players are watching closely. One thing's certain – the next few years will be anything but boring in India's automotive world. The real question is: Are we witnessing the beginning of an electric revolution or just another policy experiment? Follow AC Agarwal for more industry insights!

When global tech maverick Elon Musk shakes hands with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modiji, the entire automotive world takes notice. Tesla's potential entry into India isn't just another business move—it's a potential electric vehicle (EV) revolution. But here's the million-dollar question: Will Tesla truly disrupt India's auto market, or is this just another exciting headline? 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠? Two prominent brokerage firms—Nomura and CLSA—have offered contrasting perspectives on Tesla's India strategy. While both acknowledge the potential, their predictions reveal a nuanced landscape. Nomura sees a promising future, highlighting India's evolving EV policy as a catalyst. Policy shifts could accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and expand charging infrastructure. Companies like Sona Comstar, Sansera, and Motherson Sumi might just be the unexpected beneficiaries of this electric wave. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐮𝐳𝐳𝐥𝐞 Here's where it gets interesting. While some reports suggest Tesla might introduce a budget-friendly model of around ₹21 lakh, Nomura remains sceptical. CLSA goes a step further, warning that market excitement might be overblown. A sub-₹25 lakh on-road model could be Tesla's golden ticket to market share. But will it truly shake up established players like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, or Tata Motors? Not likely, according to CLSA. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐳𝐞 Local manufacturing is the real game-changer. Even with import duties below 20%, pricing vehicles under ₹35-40 lakh remains challenging without a domestic production setup. Siddhartha Khemka from Motilal Oswal offers an interesting perspective: Tesla's entry isn't just about selling cars. It's a potential boost for Indian auto ancillary companies, especially those already exporting components to Tesla's global operations. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞? Tesla's arrival might not immediately disrupt the entire automotive ecosystem. Instead, it could drive premiumization in India's auto market and push existing players to innovate faster. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐤 As Tesla navigates India's complex automotive landscape, one thing is clear: The electric revolution is coming. Whether it arrives with a bang or a subtle hum remains to be seen. Stay charged, India! Follow AC Agarwal for more sector updates! #auto #tesla #car #automotive #india

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The market has been very volatile this week. The Nifty tried to take support at the 22,800 level but fell below that on Friday. Below is a 2-minute weekly market update covering the sector in focus for the upcoming weeks. Follow AC Agarwal for more weekly market updates!

When stock markets swing wildly, investors often feel like they're on a nerve-wracking rollercoaster. But what if the turbulence is finally settling down? Pankaj Tibrewal, a seasoned mid-cap fund manager at Ikigai Asset Management, brings some intriguing insights into India's current market dynamics. After a sharp correction that saw small and midcap stocks tumble by 20% or more, he believes we might be approaching a turning point. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠? The Indian stock market, particularly small and midcap segments, has experienced a significant downturn. Some momentum stocks have seen cuts as deep as 50%, triggered by multiple factors including election uncertainties, extended monsoons, and tight monetary policies. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? Corporate earnings weren't matching sky-high valuations. NSE 500 companies were showing minimal growth—just 2-3% in the June and September quarters. The market was essentially deflating an overinflated bubble. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐨𝐰? Several positive signals are emerging: 👉 The RBI is introducing liquidity-boosting measures 👉 A potential interest rate cut cycle has begun 👉 Government spending rebounded sharply in December 👉 High-frequency economic indicators show improving activity 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐢𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 Tibrewal sees this as an opportunity. "Many opportunities are now emerging," he says, suggesting this might be the perfect time for patient investors to accumulate stocks. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡? 👉 Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26 corporate earnings 👉 Government's capital expenditure trajectory 👉 RBI's monetary policy signals 👉 Economic growth indicators 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐞 Markets aren't just about numbers—they're about understanding cycles. While volatility can be unsettling, it also creates opportunities for those who can read between the lines. As Tibrewal suggests, the current market might be transitioning from "impatient to patient" investors. Could this be your moment to make a strategic move? Follow AC Agarwal for more market updates!

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