Erudite Risk

South Korea's fertility rate rose to 0.75 in 2024, the first increase in nine years, up from a record low of 0.72 in 2023. This uptick in births follows a rise in marriages, suggesting a potential turning point in the country’s ongoing demographic crisis. Since 2015, the fertility rate had consistently declined from 1.24, making South Korea the nation with the lowest fertility rate globally since 2018, and consistently below 1 among OECD countries. Government initiatives aimed at promoting marriage and parenthood have influenced this rise, initiated after a declaration of national demographic crisis by the now-impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, who proposed creating a ministry to combat low birth rates. Social attitudes towards marriage and childbirth are evolving, with demographic shifts such as more individuals in their early 30s and family-starting delays due to the pandemic contributing to these trends. In 2024, marriages surged by 14.9%, the highest growth since 1970 and the first increase in eleven years. This follows a 1.0% rise in 2023, linked to post-pandemic recovery. The relationship between increased marriages and births typically shows a one to two-year lag. Despite these developments, the birthrate remains critically low, particularly in Seoul at 0.58. Moreover, South Korea continues to face population decline, with 120,000 more deaths than births last year, and projections suggest a drop in population to 36.22 million by 2072 from a peak of 51.83 million in 2020. #AsiaOperations #Demographics #Japan https://lnkd.in/gbxqs3Yg

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited Kim Il Sung University of Politics on February 24, 2025, for its 80th anniversary. He emphasized an "ideology-first" approach to military development, stating that "arms without ideology are little short of ironware." He asserted that indoctrinating soldiers should come before providing military technology, a key aspect in building a powerful army. Kim's statements occur alongside North Korea's military actions, including troop deployments to support Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. Analysts suggest that his focus on ideological loyalty aims to boost military morale and maintain stability, particularly among young soldiers facing large-scale deployments. The South Korean Unification Ministry highlighted that this ideological reinforcement also aligns with North Korea's domestic military mobilization efforts. During his visit, Kim observed a class on military operations that featured maps of strategic sites in South Korea, indicating a potential focus on military targets. Concurrently, a Workers' Party delegation led by Ri Hi-yong is in Moscow for discussions related to the Russia-Ukraine war and potential negotiations. The South Korean government will continue to closely monitor these developments. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gBUTuJfy

Six individuals were arrested in a video leak case involving a Rajkot hospital, where indecent footage of women was collected and sold online. The group includes alleged mastermind Prajwal Taili and five accomplices, who participated in a larger CCTV hacking operation that stole around 50,000 videos over nine months. DCP-Cybercrime Lavina Sinha stated that the stolen footage stems from various locations, including schools, factories, and private residences. Recent arrests followed an investigation that began when cybercrime officials found indecent videos from a Rajkot hospital. An FIR was filed after videos of women patients circulated on platforms like Telegram and YouTube. The suspects employed advanced hacking tools for their operation, using methods such as brute force attacks on unsecured IP addresses. They learned their skills from foreign-run Telegram channels and video tutorials, while also utilizing hidden cameras and smartphones for unauthorized recordings. To conceal their locations, they used VPNs, facing serious charges, including cyber terrorism under the IT Act. #AsiaRisk #CyberAttacksandDataLoss #India https://lnkd.in/gd3_NVzF

European ambassadors in Pakistan commemorated the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, reaffirming their strong support for Ukraine. Hosted by the Polish Embassy, the gathering included representatives from several countries, who condemned Russia's actions as breaches of international law that threaten global peace and security. They highlighted the invasion's adverse impacts on European stability and worldwide food and energy security. The diplomats commended Ukraine's resilience, framing its struggle as a defense of European values like freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. They emphasized their commitment to providing extensive humanitarian, economic, and military aid. The ambassadors warned that compromising Ukraine's sovereignty through negotiations would only encourage further aggression and recognized the dangers of legitimizing territorial seizures. Drawing parallels to the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, the envoys reinforced that no power is invincible. They underscored the importance of Ukraine's institutional strengthening and European integration in resisting neo-colonial influences. The event concluded with a renewed commitment to Ukraine's European aspirations, as the EU has granted candidate status, framing ongoing support for Ukraine as vital for global peace and stability. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Pakistan https://lnkd.in/gHHXQriB

Vincent Brooks, a former commander of U.S. Forces Korea, expressed skepticism about South Korea's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, asserting that U.S. extended deterrence is a more effective means of security. Speaking at a forum in Washington, he underscored the importance of comprehensive military capabilities over nuclear armament among allies. He cautioned South Korea against the misconception that nuclear weapons would enhance its security, especially given the continuous threats from North Korea. Brooks pointed out that North Korea's nuclear program could increase the likelihood of regime instability, with disastrous consequences if those weapons were ever used. His comments come during discussions surrounding the Nuclear Consultative Group, formed under the Trump administration in 2023. An Atlantic Council report revealed that over 40 percent of strategists anticipate South Korea pursuing nuclear weapons in the next decade, while nearly a quarter predict North Korea may utilize its nuclear arsenal within the same period. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gB8EV7QW

A large vessel suspected of delivering arms to Russia was spotted at Rajin Port in North Korea, raising international alarm over ongoing violations of United Nations sanctions. Satellite images reveal a 110-meter ship docking at the port, likely unloading containers before departing with new ones. Rajin Port is recognized by the U.S. as a critical hub for North Korea-Russia arms exchanges, suspected of transporting military equipment and ammunition to Russia for use in Ukraine. This incident marks the third sighting of a large ship at Rajin Port this year, contributing to a total of four confirmed sightings in 2025. U.S. estimates suggest over 20,000 containers have been traded between North Korea and Russia so far. Concurrently, North Korea is reportedly upgrading its aviation capabilities, constructing new drone hangars and testing a large reconnaissance drone similar to the U.S. Global Hawk. Recent satellite imagery updates indicate heightened activity at Uiju Airfield, with 34 fighter jets deployed and new drone hangars erected at Banghyon Airfield. A new reconnaissance drone, similar to the Saebyeol-4, has been detected, with a wingspan increasing from approximately 35 to 40 meters, indicating advancements akin to U.S. military drones. Experts suggest that North Korea’s enhanced drone capabilities could soon be utilized in military operations. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/g9V-uKSp

Hyundai Steel Co., South Korea's second-largest steelmaker, has suspended operations at its cold-rolled steel plant amid a monthlong strike by workers demanding higher wages. As of February 24, the halt at the Dangjin integrated steel mill's pickling line/tandem cold mill facility has resulted in an immediate cessation of production, with projected losses of at least 270,000 tons, valued at approximately 25.4 billion won (US$17 million). The labor union is seeking a 159,800 won increase in basic pay, five months of performance-based pay, and an 18 million won cash bonus for 2024. In response, Hyundai Steel has offered a 100,000 won pay increase, 4.5 months of performance-based pay, and a 10 million won bonus. The company's proposal could drastically reduce its financial outlook, suggesting a nearly 98 percent drop in annual net profit from 443 billion won in 2023 to 8.81 billion won in 2024. Following this development, Hyundai Steel's stock dropped 2.08 percent to 25,900 won, underperforming against the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), which fell only 0.35 percent. #AsiaRisk #StrikesandWorkStoppages #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/geFUsSeC

Hanoi: Farmers in Hoai Duc district "save" crops due to prolonged cold and drizzle weather Farmers in Hoai Duc district face significant challenges due to prolonged cold and drizzle, impacting crops like onions, coriander, and flowers. Local farmer Luu Thi Nga reported her harvest was only half of expected yields due to root rot. Farmers are implementing protective measures to combat the humid conditions. In Tien Le village, Dinh Thi Nguyet is harvesting green onions while preparing for severe weather. She noted that the heavy drizzle and cold have degraded crop quality and increased labor intensity. To safeguard their crops, families are utilizing nylon and nets to reduce damage. Chem village's Hoang Van Tuan has seen his Di Trach guava trees suffer from yellowing leaves and poor fruit quality. He is wrapping each fruit in paper as protection. Agricultural experts recommend proactive strategies, such as using plastic covers, to shield crops from harsh weather. The Hanoi Department of Cultivation and Plant Protection underscores the need for forward planning to tackle weather-related issues during the vegetable planting season. #AsiaRisk #ExtremeWeatherEvents #Vietnam https://lnkd.in/gBHA87Na

Vietnamese exporters, particularly in agriculture, are demonstrating resilience against potential trade wars. The country achieved a trade surplus of 123.5 billion USD with the US, benefiting key exports like pepper, cashews, and coffee, which remain exempt from US import tariffs due to limited domestic production. This exemption supports firms like Intimex, enabling them to maintain market share in the US, including in frozen foods. Despite this success, concerns linger about possible US trade measures. Intimex's Chairman, Do Ha Nam, highlighted that while trade with the US surpassed 100 million USD in 2024, rising consumer prices may reduce demand. Shifts in tariff policies could also disrupt global supply chains and increase reliance on local suppliers. The US is the largest market for Vietnamese pepper, holding 29% of market share. Last year, pepper exports hit a record high of over 73,000 tonnes, generating nearly 400 million USD, a 33% year-on-year increase. Industry leaders indicate that the distinctive quality of Vietnamese pepper may face technical barriers rather than direct tariffs in the future. To counteract risks from trade tensions, Vietnamese businesses are seeking alternative markets. Intimex has successfully diversified its exports to the Middle East and China, seeing notable rises in cashew and instant coffee exports. Stakeholders advocate for flexible exchange rate management and favorable loan policies from the government, along with stable negotiations with the US to foster a conducive trading environment. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Vietnam https://lnkd.in/gweqfh4j

[Exclusive] "Lee Seol-ju, who disappeared for a year, is not pregnant"... Kim Jong-un is promoting his daughter Ju-ae Ri Sol-ju, wife of North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un, has been absent from public view for over a year, sparking speculation about her situation. The National Intelligence Service reported no "abnormal signs" in her personal life, indicating her absence may be a strategy to elevate their daughter, Ju-ae's, profile. Ri last appeared publicly during the 2024 New Year's Celebration Performance alongside Kim and Ju-ae. Experts suggest Ri's prolonged absence is aimed at enhancing Ju-ae's status, effectively positioning her as the de facto first lady and reducing distractions related to her resemblance to her mother. Analysts believe Ju-ae symbolizes a benevolent father figure for Kim, reinforcing the regime's image for future generations while showcasing a softer side of leadership. Ju-ae's public engagements are viewed as a strategic effort to shift Kim's portrayal from a military-focused leader to a paternal figure, promoting stability in the North Korean state. Meanwhile, North Korea has threatened strong responses to recent sanctions monitoring efforts, condemning these actions while continuing to face international criticism for UN sanctions violations. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gYY_-iTT