Up to 100,000 more pensioners are estimated to be in poverty as a result of the winter fuel payments being cut, analysis shows, with experts urging the Government to reverse its decision.
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in July that she would be scrapping winter fuel payments – worth £200 to £300 – for all pensioners who are not in receipt of pension credit or certain other means-tested benefits.
Labour has faced much criticism for the decision but it has refused to make any changes.
Now, new modelling from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has found that up to 100,000 pensioners are predicted to be in relative poverty after housing costs in the years up to 2030, as many face mounting energy bills.
The figures have worried charities who say the removal of the winter fuel payment and higher energy prices will endanger elderly and vulnerable people.
Peter Smith, director of policy and advocacy of National Energy Action, said: “Millions of low-income and vulnerable households are facing the cold weather and the onset of winter with dread.
“As well as struggling with ongoing, unaffordable energy bills, there is now far less support this winter due to the changes to the winter fuel payment. As a charity we are already seeing the daily impact of acute physical and mental suffering, and a growing mountain of energy debt.”
The energy regulator, Ofgem, is expected to announce an increase to the price cap later this week that will take effect early next year with analysts, Cornwall Insight, warning that high prices are likely to be the “new normal”.
It forecasts that the price cap for an average dual-fuel household will rise to £1,736 per year in January, up from the current £1,717 per year set in October.
Experts say this is “extremely concerning” especially now millions of pensioners will not be eligible for winter fuel payments.
It comes as all pensioner households in Northern Ireland affected by cuts to winter fuel support are to receive a one-off payment of £100.
Communities Minister Gordon Lyons said the payment would be made before the end of March 2025.
Morgan Vine, director of policy & influencing at Independent Age, said: “It’s extremely concerning to see that energy bills are predicted to go up yet again next year. This means older people living on low incomes will have to stretch their already limited budget even further.
“Worryingly, many people in later life will have to manage this predicted bill increase without the winter fuel payment, a vital lifeline for many.
“Time is running out and the weather is turning bitter, but it’s not too late for the UK Government to change course and ensure everyone who needs the winter fuel payment receives it.”
There are concerns about the welfare of elderly and disabled people who may stop using the heating as they cannot afford it.
The decision to make changes to the winter fuel payment is expected to reduce the number of eligible pensioners from 11.4 million to just 1.5 million.
David Southgate, policy manager at disability equality charity Scope, said: “Life costs a lot more when you’re disabled. Higher electricity bills because of medical equipment to power. Higher heating bills because of health conditions affected by the cold.
“Scope has heard from disabled people who are cutting back on everything they can. Going without heating, forgoing medical treatment. Sacrifices that put their health at risk.”
The charity has called on the Government to bring in discounted energy bills for disabled people. It also wants a government-backed “help to repay” scheme, to help tackle the energy debt many disabled people face this winter.
Southgate added: “Without urgent support with energy costs, disabled people will keep facing impossible choices.”
Others have called for the Government to provide further help.
Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: “While energy saving through better insulation and ventilation of properties is part of the long-term solution to people living in cold damp homes, we need emergency support for households for foreseeable winters.
“That’s why it is so vital the ministers bring in more support for at risk households this winter and speed up plans to bring in a social tariff for next winter – a move that is backed by the vast majority of voters.”
He added another quick solution could be to reform cold weather payments so they are paid out in advance of cold weather (based on Met Office forecasts), not afterwards as is the case at present.
A Government spokesperson said: “Internal modelling on poverty estimates was produced as part of routine policy advice. The modelling is subject to a range of uncertainties and does not take into account the significant work we’re doing to encourage pension credit take-up.
“The modelling also doesn’t reflect that we have put in place extra support for those who need it most, such as our extension of the household support fund. Many pensioners will also benefit from the £150 warm home discount and cold weather payments to help with energy bills and millions of pensioners are also set to benefit from an increase of up to £470 to the state pension in April.
“This government inherited a £22bn black hole in our public finances, which means we needed to take tough decisions to balance the books. We continue to urge pensioners to check their eligibility for pension credit to ensure as many people as possible receive the support they’re entitled to.”
It added the modelling is subject to a range of uncertainties meaning the poverty impacts are rounded to the nearest 50,000 individuals.
