What will the new working year bring for creative and media businesses and those who work for them?
Exactly a year ago here I predicted 2022 would see a swing back of power from employee to employer and there is growing evidence that this has now occurred.
The “great resignation” of staff – who sought new jobs, careers and lifestyles post-pandemic – has ended. Fears it could be replaced by the “great redundancy” are as yet unfounded.
Workers have become more cautious as they face hikes to the cost of living and see employers slowing their recruitment, even laying people off in some cases.
This will set the scene for the first part of 2023. PR and advertising companies actually enjoyed a profitable 2022 but their workers – and these are talent-based businesses remember – are going to demand better rewards themselves simply to maintain their existing lifestyles.
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The immediate problem for firms is even getting staff to work in a country frozen by public-sector strikes. It’s a big challenge for managers, who remain tentative about the public relations and advertising markets in 2023.
They want to grow; to retain and incentivise their talent; but brands and big corporates may well tighten budgets in the face of a consumer-led recession.
One does sense that large agencies in particular may suffer from clients trimming their spend on annual fees, often a big chunk of their marketing budgets.
This tightening of budgets is more tempting in a year ahead that lacks big “media plays” such as a summer Olympics, a World Cup, Euros or (probably) a general election.
Corporate deal-making has also largely ground to a halt, depriving some City agencies of large fees. But despite this usual winter gloom there are also signs that 2023 could be full of opportunities.
At the end of December, a survey of UK companies by Lloyds Bank found that 63 per cent believed they would enjoy more success in the next 12 months, with 52 per cent forecasting higher revenues.
Most encouragingly, nine out of 10 said they were planning investment drives for their businesses to bolster growth.
Such clear demand for growth is the classic fuel for creative businesses to thrive and my prediction is that – bar any more “black swans” such as global conflicts or pandemics – they will be flourishing by the second half of 2023.
Danny Rogers is group editor-in-chief of Brand Republic Group
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