The number of new cases of Covid-19 reported each day in the UK has fallen for the fifth day in a row, prompting some experts to suggest we have passed the peak of the third wave.
A total of 29,173 cases were reported by the Government on Sunday, down from the 48,161 recorded a week ago on 18 July.
The last time cases fell for five consecutive days was between 5 and 9 of February. Average daily cases are down 15 per cent week on week.
However, it is too soon for the data to show any impact from the ending of legal restrictions in England on 19 July due to the time lag between people becoming infected and getting tested, so ministers remain cautious about whether this is the start of a long-term trend.
Here are the main reasons thought to be behind the ongoing fall.
Vaccines
Some 37.2 million people – 70.3 per cent of all adults – have now had both doses with another 206,968 second jabs reported on Sunday. Around 4 million people have had their second dose this month and the extra protection a full dosing regime provides will have a huge impact. Phase 3 trials for most of the leading Covid-19 jabs showed an efficacy against symptomatic infection of more than 90 per cent.
Schools
Schools closing for the summer break is likely to be one of the reasons why coronavirus cases are falling across the UK, a leading expert has said. Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M) advising ministers, said he is “cautiously optimistic” about dropping cases, but only time will tell if the third Covid wave is “turning round”.
The expert in infectious diseases, from the University of Warwick, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “any situation where cases are falling clearly is good news”.
However he added: “I think what we need to think about, though, is that there has been a change recently and I think the big one is that, in a lot of parts of the country, schools have now closed for the summer.
“Now, of course, because of that, what that means is… secondary school children have been doing lateral flow tests twice a week for quite a long period of time and we know at the moment cases are slightly higher in younger people, (and) because schools have now broken up, it may be that part of the reason cases have dropped somewhat is that we’re not detecting as many cases in younger people now.
“The other thing we do need to look at before we really draw confidence in whether we are seeing everything turning round is what’s happening with hospital admissions and, of course, what’s happening with deaths.” Dr Tildesley said it always takes a couple of weeks for case numbers in the community to be reflected in hospital admissions.
Euro 2020
At the start of July, the World Health Organisation (WHO) blamed Euro 2020 for a rise in Covid-19 cases across Europe. It said the mixing of crowds at the football competition in host cities, as well as travelling and the easing of social restrictions, had driven up the number of new cases by 10 per cent. The end of the tournament has seen fewer people meeting up in pubs or at home. Data suggests this has had an impact on cases as there was a gender split in case numbers over the course of the competition.
Some 1,991 cases of Covid-19 – shown from data from Public Health Scotland – were linked to Scottish fans who visited London during the group stages of Euro 2020. However, Scotland saw cases fall sooner than England, in line with the timing of their exit from the Euros.
Weather
The mini heatwave over the past couple of weeks may have helped, as people were more likely to meet outside, where it is harder for the virus to transmit.
The hot temperatures also make it harder for the virus to transmit, although the impact of warmer temperatures on transmission is thought to be minimal, and not enough to explain the size of the recent drop. According to epidemiologists, meeting outside helps minimise infection risks, but heat itself has a negligible effect on the virus.
So – is it time to celebrate? Not yet. It is too soon for the data to show any impact from the ending of legal restrictions in England on 19 July due to the time lag between people becoming infected and getting tested. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said over the weekend that the impact of the 19 July easing may not be sufficient to start case numbers increasing again, but added that he could not be certain.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures released on Friday, which are based on large numbers of people being tested for Covid whether they have symptoms or not, also showed that infections were rising across the UK.
Education minister Vicky Ford said on Monday that while the sustained drop in coronavirus cases is “very good news”, people must not become complacent.
“We all know how quickly it can go back up again,” she told Sky News.
