After three weeks of lockdown in the UK, much of the country is itching to know whether there will be any relaxing of the isolation rules in the coming days.
It has been suggested that cases of Covid-19 could be beginning to level off, meaning the country may be able to stay within the capacity of NHS intensive care resources.
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But ministers have dampened hopes that this could mean the rules will be imminently lifted, stating that it is still too early to know for sure if the measures have been successful in stopping the health service from becoming overwhelmed.
How long was the lockdown supposed to last?
Boris Johnson announced the stricter social distancing measures and restrictions on leaving home in the UK on 23 March and said they would last for at least three weeks, when the rules would then be reviewed.
He had been due to oversee this three-week review on Monday. While there was no suggestion that the rules would be lifted, the public had been expecting an update as to how long they would be adhering to the strict measures.
With Mr Johnson still recovering from coronavirus, the task has fallen on Dominic Raab, senior Government advisers, and the rest of Cabinet.
Mr Raab told the daily Downing Street press conference the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) would review the evidence of the effectiveness of social distancing measures.
When can we expect lockdown to end?
Mr Raab said that it was still “far too early” to consider relaxing the rules.
He said: “We don’t expect to make any changes to the measures currently in place at that point and we won’t until we’re confident, as confident as we realistically can be, that any such changes can be safely made.”
The Department of Health said 11,329 people had died in hospitals as of 5pm on Sunday, with many more expected in care homes meaning the UK is only behind the US, Italy, Spain and France in the number of deaths recorded.
The Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said last week that new data showing the number of new coronavirus cases in the UK suggest the country “could be moving in the right direction”.
He said it is “possible” the stats are showing the number of new coronavirus cases beginning to level off, suggesting that social isolation measures have prevented a surge in cases.
But he added that it would be at least a week – maybe two – until this would be known for sure.
This implies that the country faces around two weeks more of isolation before being able to determine clearly whether the lockdown has been successful in preventing the health service being overloaded during the pandemic.
How will lockdown end?
It is not yet clear how the Government would go about lifting the lockdown – whether it would do so gradually or in various stages – and ministers have refused to discuss any detail of this.
When it was first announced, Government advice revealed scientists believed the measures could continue for the best part of a year in some form.
While this does not mean everyone will be stuck in their homes for a year, it could be the case that the measures are lifted for a few weeks and then put back in place for a few weeks.
There could also be stricter isolation measures in some parts of the country that have been worst hit by the virus – such as London or the Midlands.
One key element to ending the lockdown will be the ability to identify those who have already had the virus and are believed to be safe from contracting it again.
These people could then be allowed back into the workforce.
World Health Organisation (WHO) director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus suggested lockdown could be relaxed if appropriate measures are in place, including “significant” capacity for contact tracing, used to track infections.
WHO said governments should have systems in place to detect, test, isolate and treat every case of Covid-19, as well as tracing every contact, before considering relaxing the rules.
Preventative measures must be taken in “essential” places such as work and schools, world leaders should ensure importation risks can be managed, and governments should ensure outbreak risks are minimised in settings such as health facilities and nursing homes, the WHO added.
Finally, there should be a commitment to help communities become “fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the ‘new norm”‘.
