The next pandemic is likely to be driven by climate change, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned.
A 10-year strategy document published on Tuesday by the UKHSA sets out how the Government will step up its planning, resources and response to the effects of a rise in global temperatures on human health.
The science strategy cites research showing that more than 200 infectious diseases and dozens of non-transmissible conditions have already been exacerbated by climate change.
Rising temperatures risk insect-borne diseases being pushed further out of the tropics, while severe drought in parts of the world has forced animal and human populations to live closer together, fuelling the risk of zoonotic, or animal-to-human infections, such as Covid-19. Increased risk of flooding also has a direct effect on public health.
The UKHSA strategy says: “In the context of climate change we know there will be another pandemic. We know that environmental hazards and antimicrobial resistance will have a profound impact on health and society.
“We can prevent much of the harm from threats to our health. However, this won’t be possible without concerted effort, great science and innovative technologies.
“UKHSA will lead the UK’s efforts to tackle the WHO’s urgent health challenges for this decade, which encompass some of the most pressing health security threats that we face.
“Infectious diseases, climate and environmental threats do not respect national borders. Global collaboration is paramount to guard against shared threats.”
The agency, which led the UK’s battle against Covid, established a new Centre for Climate and Health Security last year. The centre will be the focus of research and planning against the impact of global warming on human health.
Record high temperatures of over 40°C last summer have been linked to 3,000 excess deaths that year, according to the UKHSA.
A report by the World Economic Forum earlier this year warned that six of the ten most severe risks to human health are environmental.
The UKHSA strategy is published days after the WHO declared the effective end of the Covid pandemic – announcing it was no longer a public health emergency of international concern.
UK scientific experts and ministers have been stepping up their preparedness for a future pandemic, after criticism that the initial Government response to Covid in 2020 was slow.
The 10-year strategy pledges to build capability “across a range of health security scenarios from a new pathogen X to a radiological incident”.
Its plans for the next decade will also build on what are seen as the UKHSA’s successes of the Covid pandemic, including genomic surveillance, which allowed new variants to be rapidly identified and analysed, its role in assisting the development and deployment of Covid vaccines, and data analysis through the Covid dashboard.
The plans set out “how UKHSA’s science can save more lives, secure health and prosperity and contribute to the UK’s ambition to be a global science superpower”.
Professor Isabel Oliver, the UKHSA’s chief scientific adviser, said: “We saw the art of the possible during the Covid-19 pandemic with genomic data allowing the rapid identification and characterisation of variants enabling the rapid development and evaluation of diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics.
“Science was the backbone of the world’s response, helping us to understand the virus, how to best protect ourselves and ultimately live safely with the virus. UKHSA will deploy its unique scientific capabilities working with partners to protect lives and livelihoods from the health threats we are facing now and those we will detect, prevent and control in future.”
Professor Dame Jenny Harries, chief executive of UKHSA, said: “The UK Health Security Agency protects our communities from infectious diseases and the impact of chemical, radiological and other environmental health hazards.
“Our diverse scientific capabilities and partnerships are the foundation of our work, underpinning everything we do. We are already working to continuously protect the public from existing and emerging health threats, but our new strategy will ensure the UK is ready to tackle all current and future health threats quickly and effectively, securing the best health outcomes and greater prosperity for the country.”
Health minister, Maria Caulfield, said: “Cutting-edge science showed its power throughout our response to the Covid pandemic and will continue to protect people from potential future health threats.
“UKHSA’s new science ctrategy will ensure the UK remains one of the world’s science superpowers, while protecting people from illness and reducing pressure on NHS services – helping to deliver on the Government’s priority of cutting waiting lists.”
