Europe’s security is on a knife edge. Russia’s war is moving increasingly past its border with Ukraine and the military alliance standing in the way of Putin faces an uncertain 2025 with the incoming US Presidency of Donald Trump.
The UK’s military capability is far from where it needs to be and now is the time to invest in it. At least that is the opinion of Britain’s once most senior military officer and former Nato Commander, Sir James Everard.
With a long and distinguished military career, including deployments in Bosnia, Germany and Iraq, Sir James went on to serve as Nato’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe until 2021. He has seen first-hand how the international military alliance works against Kremlin aggression and, as Europe plunges deeper into hot and cold war with Russia, he says now is the time to “get on” with spending on military solutions.
“Nato leaders have agreed a really good strategy but they have also agreed the capabilities you need to deliver that strategy and so allies should be focused on delivering,” he told The i Paper. “If we’re strong we won’t have a problem.”
US contributions to Nato are vital to European security against Russia and the military alliance presents a key tool through which those contributions are directed. However, current US support is under threat from an incoming Trump presidency, which has sounded the alarm that US contributions to Nato will falter.
Sir James said one way of ensuring the US maintains a strong commitment to Nato, was to ensure there was proper European investment in the alliance. The former Commander said higher spending targets were a “sensible” option to ease Trump’s anxieties over US membership.
“If you have an incoming Trump administration then I would have thought agreeing a higher defence spending target before he gets there is sensible isn’t it,” he said.
Trump has been a vocal critic of the alliance and his team has reportedly told European officials that the incoming US president will demand Nato member states increase defence spending to 5 per cent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The current target stands at 2% of GDP and currently only 23 of Nato’s 32 members will meet that spend this year.
Sir James expressed the concern that many members were still not reaching the target and said the start of Trump’s second term will be a “key moment” which European allies can prepare for with a straightforward solution: increased defence spending.
He said: “Nato has a good strategy, a good set of targets set through a pretty robust process which allies now need to get on with and deliver.
“That plan has been several years in construction so get on with that and then I think your chances of getting American support are better.
“Back the horses you’ve got and the horse you’ve got and then the alliance is in a place that the US is happier that it can do less in Europe.”
Earlier this month Nato head Mark Rutte warned the US-led alliance it was not ready for the threats it would face from Russia in the coming years and called for a shift to a wartime mindset, with much higher defence spending beyond the 2% target.
After reports of ongoing discussions with Nato members, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated the UK government’s plan to increase defence spending to 2.5% of its GDP.
The move came after former military chiefs told this newspaper that Starmer risked clashing with Donald Trump over defence spending unless he agreed to a larger increase than planned.
Former Navy chief Lord West and ex-defence secretary Ben Wallace were among those urging the UK to join a Nato push to boost defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade.
But Sir James said Starmer’s Government have a “difficult challenge” trying to deal with limited budgets while plugging a hole in defence capabilities that is much bigger than desired. The need for investment in UK defence is in a constant battle with UK military support for Ukraine which is seen as vital for the security of Europe, he added.
He said: “You have to feel for the Government because I don’t think its any secret that the gap between where we want to be in military terms and where we are is pretty big,
“That goes back years and the amount of money you need to fix it will be quite high while doing what we can to support Ukraine at the same time.
“I think its a difficult challenge for the Government.”
In recent months, European figures have given stark warnings about Russia’s near readiness to take on Nato territories should it feel emboldened by any perceived Russian victory at the conclusion of the Ukraine war.
Andrzej Duda, the Polish president, told CNBC that Russia could have the military capacity to attack Nato as early as in 2026 or 2027, urging nations to increase the required threshold for military expenditure by Nato countries to 3% of GDP.
Duda said: “From my point of view it is a matter of common sense. Alarm bells are ringing, we have two or three years in which we can increase our efforts, stockpile ammunition, produce weapons to maximise Europe’s security, get ready and make sure that the invasion does not happen.”
In October, a group of German intelligence officials warned that Russia could “carry out an attack” against Nato by the end of the decade. German Federal Intelligence Service President Bruno Kahl said that “whether we like it or not, we are in a direct conflict with Russia.”
He said Russian President Vladimir Putin “declared his enemy long ago” and that “direct military conflict with Nato (is) becoming an option for Russia”.
Sir James said that Russia’s “maximum period of advantage” in any conflict with Nato is “sooner rather than later”, but says Putin won’t be looking to start any new conflicts until he achieves what he wants in Ukraine, especially following the recent strategic loss in Syria.
He said: “When you see Russia and Putin pointing in one direction look very carefully in the other to see what they’re doing,
“I am sure that he won’t think everything is lost in Syria and he will try and he will be working hard to see what kind of position he can get there but I think his focus at the moment remains on Ukraine.
“Until he is certain of what he wants to achieve there I don’t think he will want to look at anything else.”
