Covid vaccines could be extended to the over-fifties under the Government’s contingency plans to avoid another serious crisis in the NHS this winter, i understands.
The autumn booster programme for the jabs is currently restricted to the over-65s, pregnant women and those with serious medical conditions, but could be available to younger age groups to keep more people out of hospital due to the virus.
The Government is looking at a range of measures to be potentially deployed in case there is a surge in both Covid and flu cases in the run-up to winter, although no final decisions have yet been taken on vaccines.
It is also planning to relaunch a new version of the Covid Infection Survey, which was axed in March, to track cases in the community as part of plan to increase in surveillance of the virus, i has learnt.
While it is considered unlikely that two new Covid variants currently being monitored by the UK Health Security Agency will lead to a major uptick in cases, ministers want to ease as much pressure on the NHS – particularly if doctors’ strikes continue.
Ministers and NHS chiefs are also battling to clear the backlog of people waiting for routine hospital treatment, which is likely to add to the burden on the health service this winter.
On Thursday Rishi Sunak admitted his key pledge to bring down NHS waiting lists was in doubt after latest figures show a record 7.68m people are waiting for routine hospital treatment.
The Government is considering a suite of further measures to plan for Covid this winter, but only if cases of the virus surge or the pressure on the NHS increases dramatically.
Possible options include extending Covid testing to people without symptoms in care homes and hospitals, in addition to those with symptoms who are currently tested, recommending masks in hospitals and other healthcare settings, advising people to stay at home if they have Covid – although this would not be mandatory – and isolating care home residents and NHS patients who test positive for the virus.
However, ministers have ruled out any statutory restrictions of any sort and there will be no return to any form of lockdown, as they believe it would be a catastrophe for the economy and cause fresh damage to education and mental health as well as further exacerbate the NHS waiting list backlog.
Economic fears rule out lockdown
Ministers are keeping a close eye on the impact of Covid on economic growth in case the current uptick in the virus sets back efforts to steer the UK clear of recession this autumn.
Cases and hospital admissions have been rising since the start of September, and officials are concerned about the potential risk of two new variants, BA.2.86 and EG.5.1.
More people staying at home due to sickness could dampen productivity and retail spending this month, although Treasury sources said they do not believe the current Covid wave is large enough yet on its own to impact economic growth.
But this week’s GDP figures revealed the economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in July due to poor weather dampening consumer activity, underlining how uncertain the current picture is.
While the NHS and public health is at the top of ministers’ concerns when it comes to Covid, the impact on the economy is also taken into consideration in policy making.
This is why a fresh lockdown has been ruled out, even if a new variant emerges that is significantly more virulent than Omicron and its offshoot strains.
It is more likely to be the case that ministers and officials weigh up whether taking action to limit staff sickness – such as extending vaccines to working-age people – would protect the UK’s fragile economic growth from a Covid-shaped curveball this autumn.
Covid jabs were available to the over-fifties during last year’s autumn booster programme, but this year it is limited to over-65s. The NHS came under severe strain last winter, exacerbated by industrial action and admissions from both Covid and flu.
Latest figures show that hospital admissions of patients with Covid are rising for all age groups except those aged 24 and under, although the numbers are still lower than they were this time last year.
The Covid Infection Survey, run by the Office for National Statistics, was paused in March this year as surveillance of the virus was scaled back.
A new community surveillance study, also run by the ONS, will involve using the existing stockpile of lateral flow tests and testing people in the community regardless of whether they have symptoms or not, to monitor trends of the virus.
The SIREN study, which has been testing NHS workers for Covid since the first few months of the pandemic, is to be extended to flu.
This is in addition to a relaunch of the Covid dashboard within weeks, revealed by i earlier this week, which will also track cases of flu and other respiratory viruses.
BA.2.86, nicknamed Pirola, has several mutations which could make vaccines less effective, although there are no signs that it is more transmissible.
A second new variant, EG.5.1, nicknamed Eris, is showing signs of concern as it is one of the fastest-growing in the US, Europe and other parts of the world, but there are no signs that it can cause more serious illness than existing Covid strains.
However, officials have insisted that, after nearly four years of the virus, there is strong immunity in the population to Covid both from vaccination and prior infection, and it is not thought that Covid will pose a greater risk to the general public than previous years. In her address to her organisation’s board meeting this week, UKHSA chief executive Dame Jenny Harries said the situation with Covid “remains dynamic”, adding: “We are identifying appropriate planning scenarios and ensuring that appropriate contingency plans are in place, including in the event of the emergence of new variants or significant surge in Covid-19 infections.”
Dame Jenny said the BA.2.86 variant “adds to this uncertain picture”.
Officials brought forward the autumn booster programme for the current eligible groups by a month amid concerns that BA.2.86 might escape vaccines more easily.
She added: “To further support the resilience of our healthcare system over winter, we are in the process of finalising a refined community surveillance study for Covid-19 for delivery this winter.
“We are working closely with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as our delivery partner, building on the successes of the previous Community Infection Survey.
“The study is designed to use our existing stockpile of lateral flow devices (LFDs) and provide vital insight to the NHS and other key partners through the winter months when infection rates and hospitalisations tend to be higher.”
Asked whether Covid jabs could be extended to the under-65s as part of a contingency plan, the UKHSA declined to comment.
Mr Sunak and Health Secretary Steve Barclay held a summit with NHS chiefs at Downing Street this week to discuss plans to avert another winter crisis in the health service.
The Prime Minister pledged an extra £200m of funds to help the NHS tackle the extra burden.
