More than 100 Conservative MPs could turn against Boris Johnson if his leadership is put to a confidence vote, i has established.
The Prime Minister would still technically win the ballot of 360 Tory MPs as he only needs a majority of one to survive, but he would be severely wounded by the scale of the rebellion, which would go far beyond the current public dissent by backbenchers against his leadership.
Mr Johnson is facing a make-or-break week in Westminster this week after shaking up his Downing Street top team in the wake of five resignations from No10 and ongoing pressure from his party over the Partygate scandal, his comments about Jimmy Savile and the cost of living crisis.
Sources from all wings of the party have suggested that the threshold of 54 letters required to trigger a confidence vote is close, with estimates varying between 30 and 45 MPs having written to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee.
A total of 15 Tory MPs have publicly declared they have written letters, but there are insider party estimates that a further two times as many have done so in private.
Some Conservative backbenchers have decided to write letters of no confidence but are holding them back until there is a clear tipping point – either the publication of the full Sue Gray report, which will likely be even more damaging than her interim findings last week, or fresh revelations in the form of a No10 party, photograph or a linked but separate disclosure to do with sleaze or party finances.
MPs who are withholding their letters do not want to submit too early in case the confidence vote is triggered and Mr Johnson wins, only for damaging revelations to emerge in the full Gray report and a further confidence vote is not possible for another 12 months.
However i has established, based on research of how MPs could be expected to vote in a confidence ballot, that the number voting against Mr Johnson would surpass 100.
With a short 10-day parliamentary recess looming this Friday, Mr Johnson was reported to believe that he could avoid a confidence vote if the 54-letter threshold is not reached by then.
Yet i understands that letters could still be sent in by email during the recess and that the subsequent secret ballot of MPs for the confidence vote could also be held remotely away from Westminster.
This would mean that the Prime Minister faces no let-up in his leadership crisis and needs a decisive development in his favour this week to see off a confidence vote.
But Mr Johnson remains bullish about his future and believes he has been bolstered by the appointments of Steve Barclay as chief of staff and Guto Harri as director of communications, a source said.
At the weekend the former minister Nick Gibb, who does not have a history of rebelling against leaders, revealed that he had become the 15th MP to write a letter of no confidence in Mr Johnson.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng yesterday insisted the threshold was “not near”.
He told Times Radio: “My own view is that we’re probably not that near the letters (threshold) but I don’t know – until we reach that point I think it’s idle speculation.”
But another minister suggested Mr Johnson should avoid campaigning in Scotland ahead of May’s council elections.
Greg Hands, the UK energy minister, also refused to say whether he thought Mr Johnson could be trusted to take the country out of the energy crisis.
Asked if it would be wise for Mr Johnson to campaign north of the border, Mr Hands told the BBC’s Sunday Show: “I think we’ve got plenty of campaigning forces on the ground.”
He added: “We’ve got a fantastic campaigning arm already in Scotland, Douglas Ross and his team, and I’ve got every confidence in their ability to deliver a very good result for the Conservatives in May.”
Asked whether he thought the Prime Minister could be trusted to take the country out of the energy crisis, Mr Hands did not answer, instead focusing on his record.
“I think he’s a Prime Minister who’s been delivering,” he said.
