The New Year has greeted Keir Starmer with a storm of political problems ranging from turmoil on the financial markets to an NHS winter flu crisis and gas reserves running low.
But of the growing list of events and external factors over which the Prime Minister has no direct control, the biggest is yet to come – Donald Trump due to be inaugurated as United States president on 20 January.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is already braced for a potential emergency mini-Budget in March and Labour MPs fear Trump could deliver a hammer blow to the economy that could potentially cost their party the next election.
One MP said that if Donald Trump decided to launch tariffs against Britain the potential for “real economic disaster” was “quite scary”.
Labour fears US tariffs would mean electoral defeat
The Labour politician ranked Trump’s trade policy alongside issues such as whether China would invade Taiwan as global factors fundamentally “out of our control” that could torpedo Labour’s core mission of boosting economic growth. If the next US president’s decisions went against Britain, the MP said “it’s going to make it really difficult for us to get re-elected”.
But Labour MPs, Government, Palace and diplomatic insiders believe Starmer may yet have a trump card, so to speak – the Royal Family.
The MP said the Government’s best bet was leveraging Trump’s family links to Britain and affection for institutions like the monarchy. “Trump likes the UK. We just need to milk that for what it’s worth,” they said.
A second Labour MP – a senior backbencher – added: “Obviously we do [need to deploy the Royals]. The poor old Royal Family is going to be spending a lot of time with Trump in the future I suppose.”
It is a view shared by diplomats, who have for months been discussing how the Royals could be deployed to help smooth UK-US relations under Trump.
The president-elect is an avowed fan of the monarchy, while No 10 and Palace insiders privately acknowledge the diplomatic pulling power of the family.
One idea could be to make Trump the first world leader to be invited to the UK for a second state visit. It would be up to the Government to decide whether to issue such an historic invitation, before the Palace began working up any plans. And The i Paper understands that nothing has begun on that front – yet. But the idea has not been ruled out, with next year being suggested in terms of timing.
As well as the possibility of Trump coming to the UK, planners are eying up a potential visit by the Royals to mark the 2026 United States Semiquincentennial – the 250th anniversary of American independence.
If the King is unable to attend, the Prince and Princess of Wales could deputise.
The Palace is also understood to be open to meetings between Trump and the King outside a formal state visit, for example if he wanted to visit one of his golf courses in Scotland, a meeting could be arranged.
A No 10 source acknowledged that both Trump’s fondness for the UK and the Royals are “important” factors in building a relationship.
Palace insiders thrilled by Trump meet with William
Government, diplomatic and Palace insiders are all understood to be thrilled with a meeting between the Prince and Trump at the reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral in December.
Trump said William was “doing a fantastic job” and the pair spent 40 minutes meeting at the British ambassador’s residence, discussing the UK-US relationship, having earlier shaken hands at the reopening ceremony.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy also chose to highlight Trump’s fondness for the Royals when speaking to reporters on Thursday.
Asked whether he was concerned about allies of Trump like Elon Musk openly courting right-wing leaders across Europe, Lammy said: “The Prime Minister and I were able to sit down for three hours with Donald Trump in Trump Tower in September.
“We had a very good meal. We had a long time to discuss the issues.
“He was an extremely gracious host, very affable and very warm indeed, about our great country, about the Royal Family, about his love of Scotland, and his connection with Scotland particularly. And so we were able to tour the issues.”
Musk threat being taken seriously
But even if Starmer can get in Trump’s ear via the Royals, he has the issue of who’s on the other shoulder – namely X boss Musk.
The tech billionaire gave the PM a difficult start to 2025 by wading in with demands for a national inquiry into grooming gangs in the UK, while aiming no holds barred attacks at Starmer and his safeguarding minister Jess Phillips.
After days of trying to rise above the row, Starmer felt forced to intervene on Monday, attacking those “spreading lies and misinformation” about grooming gangs.
In a sign of how seriously the Tesla chief is being taken, it is understood that Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron discussed both Trump and Musk during their meeting in Chequers on Thursday night.
When asked whether the pair talked about the incoming US administration, Government sources told The i Paper that the two leaders discussed “a wide range of topics”.
Senior Labour figures, including several government insiders, hope Musk will fall out with Trump and will therefore not be a long-term problem, although the idea was dismissed by a No 10 source as “speculation”.
The senior Labour backbencher: “I don’t think he’s going to last. I can’t see that Trump is going to put up with him getting all this attention and taking it away from Trump, so I don’t think we’re going to have to worry for very long about any kind of influence he will have with Trump.”
No 10 insiders meanwhile said Starmer would not be blown off course by Musk’s jibes and that he will be “focused on preparing” for Trump and that there would be no “change of priorities”
One ally of Starmer added: “You know Keir, this is not going to make him divert attention from what he is focusing on”
Whitehall insiders are relaxed about some of Trump’s more offbeat rhetoric, for example on suggesting Greenland could become part of America and refusing to rule out military action over the issue.
‘Judge Trump on actions not words’
One source suggested the UK was right to adopt an approach of judging Trump on his actions rather than the “breathless” criticism offered by the French and Germans, speculating that this could be playing to the gallery amid election campaigns.
The Government is also confident that the UK-US relationship goes much deeper than that between the leaders of the two countries at any given time.
In a sign the US and the UK continue to retain a close dialogue on security, MI5’s Director General Ken McCallum attended the leaving ceremony for the outgoing director of the FBI Chris Wray, who is stepping down to coincide with the end of the Biden presidency.
In his remarks in Washington DC on Friday, McCallum focused on the institutional and historical relationship between MI5 and the FBI.
Former ambassador and national security adviser Lord Ricketts said others in Government, including figures such as current UK National Security Adviser (NSA) Jonathan Powell, would be talking to Trump’s transition team to ensure they are up to date, and nominees for Cabinet posts like Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and prospective US NSA Mike Waltz
“The problem will be knowing whether any of them speak for Trump,” Ricketts added.
He said the best thing to do when Trump makes outlandish statements on Greenland and Canada is “not to overreact, to be clear about UK interests and to cooperate closely with other partners”
Foreign Affairs Committee chair Emily Thornberry said the UK “can make the best of” Trump and potentially guide him towards positive outcomes in Ukraine and the Middle East: “It’s going to be unpredictable, but you never know, we want to be as optimistic as we can be.
“A bold and brave president taking on some of the big issues and changing things fundamentally could be to our advantage if it’s particular issues in a way that a more cautious president may not be able to achieve.
“But it could equally go the other way completely.”
